Friday, November 11, 2016

Maybe a Storm, But Be Realistic

When in a snow drought at the beginning of the season, one tends to look into the deep future for any trough that might lay down some snow.  Indeed, we have one in the forecast, which the GFS pushes through the state next Thursday.

This storm is already being hyped, despite the fact that its nearly a week away.  There are some things we can be confident in.  For example, we are going to get colder later next week.  However, you really can't count on precipitation amount forecasts that far in advance.  The storm track could change some and, when it comes to Wasatch snowfall, the Devil is in the details, and those details can't be reliably anticipated at such long lead times.

To further sober you up, rather than show one exciting solution from the GFS, let's look at the NAEFS downscaled ensemble forecast for Alta.  There are a few members calling for 10-20 inches on Thursday, but others going for quite a bit less.

Bottom Line: There remain a wide of possibilities.  Hope for the best.  Low expectations are the key to a happy life.


  1. I'd just be happy for snowmaking temps at this point...

  2. Any bets on breaking some record highs Nov 15-16? (currently 70 and 68 respectively).

    1. That would be nice. Much will depend on timing and structure. The 16th is also the latest freeze date on record and I think would set a record for longest frost-free season. Much to talk about next week (I hope).