Monday, August 29, 2022

The Dog Days of Summer Continue

Apparently the phrase "dog days of summer" originates with the Greeks and Romans, who recognized that the hottest, most miserable part of the summer occurred in late July when the constellation Sirius rises along-side the sun in Late July.  

However, the Greeks and Romans didn't live in Salt Lake City in the 21st century when the dog days just seem to go on and on.  

Really, late July is climatologically the hottest part of the year here and that was the case this year.  The hottest days of the year, in terms of average temperature, were July 17 and July 22 (91.5 and 91.0˚F, respectively).  Given the long nights, we won't be touching that this week or weekend, but it's going to be hot.   

Below is the GFS forecast valid 0000 UTC 2 September (6 PM MDT Thursday).  Monsoon moisture is confined mainly to southern Arizona and New Mexico and ridging predominates to our west.  700-mb temperatures at KSLC are around 16–17˚C.  The long-term median for Sep 1 is about 10˚C and the highest ever observed after 23 August is 17.2˚C.  

In other words, this airmass is quite warm for so late in the year.  

Sadly, that means an extended run, beginning tomorrow, with highs in the upper 90s to near 100.  At least the shorter days, low humidity, lower angle sun, and overnight lows near 70 should make it a little more tolerable than the true dog days in late July.  

Friday, August 26, 2022

The Moab Flood

Brian Schott has an excellent article discussing the Moab flood and some of the problems with the use of phrases like "100 year event" that was published yesterday in the Salt Lake Tribune.  In it, Moab's city engineer, Chuck Williams, does a good job describing some of the concerns about that phrasing and also how prior rainfall set the stage for the event by saturating soils (where they exist in that red rock country).  

I'll talk a little here about the precipitation piece of the puzzle.  Below is the  National Severe Storms Laboratory's Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system 1-hour accumulated precipitation estimate for the period ending at 1:50 UTC 21 August, or 7:50 PM MDT 20 August.  Based on my visual inspection, this was the 1-hour period with the greatest coverage and intensity of precipitation in the Moab area.  Precipitation is heaviest along US-191 and in the Behind the Rocks area to the west, with pixel-level values maximizing at about 1.4 inches.  To the east, in the Mill Creek basin, amounts vary from about .6 to 1.2 inches depending on location.


I also took a look at shorter-time-scale precipitation estimates.  Radar-estimated precipitation at one location peaked at about 0.7 inches for a 15 minute period (note: this is one pixel, not the entire area).  Based on the Salt Lake Tribune article, the NWS received a report of nearly an inch in 20 minutes, so these are fairly close. 

Now if we were to look at the so-called recurrence interval for such precip amounts in the Moab area, 0.7 inches in 15 minutes has a recurrence interval of about 50 years and 1.4 inches in an hour about 100 years.  That sounds like a rare event.  However, these recurrence intervals have many problems, some discussed in the Tribune article linked above, but one not mentioned is that for precipitation, they are for a point.  During the monsoon we basically have thunderstorms dropping heavy precipitation in highly localized areas.  The odds that a specific location gets 0.7 inches of rain in 15 minutes is pretty low.  The odds that it happens somewhere in southern Utah is, however, much higher, and this is especially true during an active monsoon season like this one.  

I suspect that if I put some effort into it, I could find multiple 100 year precipitation events at various locations in southern Utah this summer (and probably northern Utah too).  Another way to think about that, and this is a bit of an oversimplification (but so is recurrence interval), is that about 1 in 100th of southern Utah will see a 100 year storm in any given summer.  The Moab event was rare for Moab, but it may not be rare for southern Utah in the monsoon.  

I often like to say that we are not prepared for the climate of the 20th century, let alone the climate of the 21st century.  The frequency or recurrence intervals of extreme events in our part of the world my contain estimate uncertainties simply because they are based on a limited time period at a limited number of sites.  This is especially true for precipitation accumulations in short time intervals like an hour or 15 minutes.  Additionally, for precipitation, these are point estimates and what would be really helpful is information on the characteristics of precipitation within individual catchment basins.  Radar can provide a path forward, although there are many areas of Utah that remain undersampled.   Finally, in a warming world, the statistics of the past may not represent the statistics of the future and storm intensity is expected to increase.  It will be essential that we learn from events like this one and build resiliency to future extreme weather and climate events.  

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

A Look at Max Temps @KSLC

As of August 23rd, there have been 25 days with a maximum temperature of 100˚F or higher at the Salt Lake City International Airport.  This is a new record for a calendar year, eclipsing the 21 days of 100˚F or higher observed in 1960, 1994, and 2021.  

Over the years, I have had many people contact me concerning the veracity or representativeness of observations collected at the airport.  It is something that I have written about previously, including in 2013 (see What's Up @KSLC).  

The reality is non-climatic factors related to instrumentation changes and biases, observing techniques, land-surface change, urbanization, irrigation, and in some instances station moves affect trends and extremes at many observing sites.  Some of these are documented, some not. A good deal of processing is done to identify and adjust for these effects to identify climate trends, a process known as climate data homogenization.  

Climate trends are typically derived after this homogenization, but applying such corrections to daily temperatures is more difficult.  For example, biases can vary depending on the weather (e.g., whether or not the wind is blowing, whether it has rained recently, etc.).  Doing such corrections systematically for daily temperature records is very challenging.  

Additionally, any station measurement is collected at a point and any point measurement is specific to that location.  In an urban environment like Salt Lake City, there can be a great deal of variability in temperature, so even under the best of circumstances the representativeness of observations from KSLC has limits.  For instance, golf courses may be cooler due to irrigation.  Heavily treed areas may see lower temperature than the airport.

Here we focus on July temperatures for two reasons.  First, it is the hottest month of the year, so trends during this month are especially important for human comfort, water demand, and energy use.  Second, it is the month with the least year-to-year weather variability in the Salt Lake City area, so trends may be more detectable.  

Weather records for Salt Lake City date back to 1874, but this is based on observations collected by the US Weather Bureau/National Weather Service near present day downtown Salt Lake City prior to 1928 and at the Salt Lake City airport (KSLC) thereafter.  This observing-site change is clearly evident if you look at the combined time series from the two sites (I have added a vertical bar in 1928 in the time series below).  There is a shift to higher maximum temperatures and a drop in minimum temperatures around 1928.  

Time series graphic source:

These changes indicate that in the early 20th century, the airport location observed a larger daily July temperature range than the downtown observing site, with higher maximum temperatures and lower minimum temperatures.  This is consistent with the airport's lower elevation, although by 1920 there was already significant development in the downtown area that may have also contributed to higher minimum temperatures at that site.  Some might hypothesize that airport's proximity to the Great Salt Lake might lead to a smaller daily temperature range, but the time series do not support that hypothesis.  

Another feature evident in the time series above is a trend to higher temperatures later in the record.  Precisely when that trend begins is difficult to determine visually, but for minimum temperature it appears to begin in the 1970s.  For maximum temperature the trend is not as large and may emerge from the background variability a bit later.  

Let's take a closer look at what has been happening since 1975. I pick this date in part for convenience because there is a nearby observing site that has a complete record of July observations since that date, Bountiful Bench (big hat tip to that volunteer observer).  The Bountiful Bench site is about 15 km northeast and 775 feet higher than the airport.  

Below are the July average maximum temperatures and linear trends from 1975 to 2022 at both sites.  Visually, there is remarkable correspondence in the year-to-year variability and long-term trends at the two sites.  KSLC observes higher maximum temperatures due to its lower altitude.  Based on linear trends, maximum temperatures at KSLC have increased almost 1˚F per decade, whereas at Bountiful Bench they have increased about 0.75˚F per decade. 

We can take the difference between these two time series to better identify possible shifts in station characteristics.  There seem to be three periods in this time series.  One prior to about 1996ish when the difference between the two stations fluctuates between 4 and 7˚F, then a period from about 1996ish to 2011ish when the difference is between 3 and 6˚F, and then the period after 2011 when the difference is greater than 5˚F.  

At this point, we don't know why those shifts are occurring.  They could be due to instrumentation changes, shifts in the location of the instruments, or other changes at either observing site.  More sleuthing is needed than I have time for today. 

The change after 2011, however, is quite abrupt and something that we've investigated previously (see The Most Boring Summer Ever? from 2013).  Two things happened around that time.  First, the observing site was moved to its current location.  Below is a Google Earth image of the current observing site location from 2009.  This is pre move.  

By 2010, the observing site (in the center of the triangle) appears to be either installed or in the process of being installed.  I am not sure when it became operational.  

Then, sometime between 2013 and 2015, the area was denuded of vegetation.  The image below is from 2015.

It is possible (maybe likely) that either the instrumentation move or the land-surface changes are contributing to the higher maximum temperatures at KSLC compared to Bountiful Bench. The average increase in this difference after 2011 is about 2.5˚F.  Let's suppose that we were to adjust the daily maximum temperatures by 2 or 3˚F so that 102 or 103˚F was the "new 100˚F".  Based on the counts for this year, that would knock the number of 100˚F days down to something between 3 and 8 based on this year's distribution of observed max temperatures through Aug 23. 

Days ≥ 98˚F: 36
Days ≥ 99˚F: 33
Days ≥ 100˚F: 25
Days ≥ 101˚F: 18
Days ≥ 102˚F: 8
Days ≥ 103˚F: 3

But here's another way to look at it.  First, it is clear from the time series above that July maximum temperatures are increasing at both sites.  It is getting warmer, regardless of any non-climatic effects in the KSLC time series.  

Second, let's assume we "only" reached 98˚F on the days we hit 100 this year and that observations prior to 2011 are "truth" and trustworthy (more on this in a minute).  With such a correction, we would be tied for 6th all time for days ≥ 98˚F through August 24th [years at or above days ≥ 98˚F prior to 2012 are 1940 (25), 1960 (30), 1961 (26), 1994 (32), 2003 (28), and 2007 (30)].  Prior to 1960, 1940 is the only year with more than 19 days ≥ 98˚F.  

Now, let me throw a few caveats into this analysis.  First, we should be cautious viewing Bountiful Bench as "truth."  It too can be affected by site or instrumentation changes.  For example, why does the difference between the stations decline around 1996ish?  Is that due to something at the Bountiful Bench site or KSLC?  Often such changes are not well documented.  Second, we should be cautious about treating past observations as well as "truth" because there are some warts there as well.  Was there anything happening in or around 1960 that might affect the representativeness of those observations, for example.  

At this point, I'm exhausted.  Others will need to do that sleuthing for me.  

Monday, August 22, 2022

Monsoon Musings

Convection associated with the North American Monsoon had a major impact on southern Utah (and even parts of northern Utah) over the past few days when several notable flash floods occurred.  

One was in Moab where a state of emergency was declared after downtown and environs were flooded severely on Saturday night.  

Radar imagery during the period showed a cluster of thunderstorms moving slowly eastward.  In the image below, an especially strong cell is due east of Moab (southeast of CNY, the 3-letter identifier for Canyonlands airport) over the headwaters of Mill Creek, which became a raging torrent.  

Source: NCAR/RAL

On the previous day, Friday, Aug 19, multiple hikers experienced a flash flood in the Virgin Narrows in Zion National Park, apparently near the Temple of Sinawava near the end of the Zion Canyon Scenic Drive.  One hiker is still missing, and search and rescue operations are ongoing.  

If you are planning outdoor activities in southern Utah, the National Weather Service issues a flash flood potential rating for several national parks and recreation areas at  Consult it as you would an avalanche report before backcountry skiing, adjusting plans accordingly.  In many instances, these flash floods are unsurvivable.  

Finally, I've seen some call the event in Moab a 100-year event.  The one hundred years here represents an average recurrence interval of precipitation in a given period at a point.  It is possible to obtain these at the NOAA Precipitation Frequency Data Server.  

One needs to be very cautious when using and interpreting these recurrence intervals.  First, they are based on prior observations from a relatively limited number of sites, indicated below.  


And the period of record varies depending on the station.  Monsoon thunderstorms are very hit-and-miss and extreme events are often undersampled by a limited number of stations with short periods of record.  This results in important uncertainties in the estimates of the return intervals of extreme events.  

Second, these are recurrence intervals at a point.  Monsoon thunderstorms can be very localized.  The probability, for example, of say an inch of rain in an hour at a point is much lower than it happening in any given region. Don't be surprised if you hear of two 100 year events happening in a given region like southern Utah in the same year.  It happens.   

Finally, these return intervals are based on prior observations.  The climate is changing.  Their representativeness is declining as the climate is warming.  

Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Weak Troughs Matter

Forecasting during the monsoon is often very challenging.  We talk a lot about monsoon surges, which sound quite dramatic, but sometimes the changes are more subtle.  

Currently there is a weak upper-level trough off the coast of California that will serve as an important driver of convective storms as it moves across the western United States.  

This afternoon the trough will be near the coast of California. It will help to coax monsoon moisture northward over the Sierra Nevada and western Nevada, with the HRRR producing clouds and showers (and presumably thunderstorms) that through that area and into Oregon.  

By tomorrow afternoon, the trough is near the Oregon-Nevada-California triple point and shower and thunderstorm activity has shifted eastward into eastern Nevada and western Utah.  

By Friday afternoon, the trough is moving into northern Utah and the GFS has moved the action into northern Utah (switching to GFS forecast below since the HRRR does not run past 48 hours).  

By most meteorological standards, the trough is quite weak.  Meteorologists often look at 500-mb geopotential height with contours every 60 meters to identify upper-level features and if you do that this morning, there's not much of anything to be seen off the coast of California.  


However, the trough is readily apparent if one looks at dynamic tropopause pressure and wind (upper left in the image below) or 500-mb vorticity (upper right).  These are variables that are more sensitive to flow curvature and shear and are often helpful for identifying weaker features (and they are still useful for strong features).  

Yesterday's high at KSLC was 100˚F, the 22nd time we've hit that mark this year (a new record).  As of 1:30, it is 96˚F at KSLC and we should be very near 100˚F for the maximum again today.  I personally am looking forward to a bit more cloud cover and the chance of showers and thunderstorms later this week.  

Sunday, August 14, 2022

A Moist Sunday

I hope you are enjoying the pleasantly moist and cool weather this Sunday.  We've had a pretty good run of monsoon moisture and thunderstorms in recent days and I think it is quite enjoyable.

Weather observations over the past 14 days, roughly covering the first 2 weeks of August, show three major surges of monsoon moisture during which dewpoints (blue line) predominantly sat near or above 55˚F.  These are separated by a couple of monsoon breaks during which the dewpoint was generally below 55˚F.  

Despite the hit-and-miss nature of monsoon showers and thunderstorms, most of northwest Utah has gotten a good deal of rain, with widespread areas over an inch and local accumulations of more than 3 inches in places over the past 14 days.  


For our part of the world, that represents more than 300% of average for the period, although there are a few spots that haven't done as well (note that there are a lot of artifacts in the analyses above and below that are non-physical, so don't take them too literally.  


This morning's sounding is an interesting one.  The atmosphere was at or near saturation at upper levels (above 600 mb) which explains the mid-level stratus deck that we've seen for most of the day so far (more on this in a minute).  However, it is also fairly moist near the valley floor.  At the time the sounding was taken, the surface temperature and dewpoint were 67˚F and 63˚F, representing a relative humidity of 87%.

While I was mountain biking this morning, I took the photo below at 9:33 AM from the upper towers on the ridge above Ensign Peak.  The mid-level stratus deck was evident, but there were no low clouds.  

By 10:11 AM, however, as I was returning home, one could see a band of low clouds had formed near the Wasatch.  

As I write this, at 1:04 PM, the cloud band persists.

My guess is that it is being produced by the up-valley and upslope flows generated by daytime surface heating.  Much of the time around here in the summer, the valley atmosphere is to dry to generate a cloud band at such a low elevation, but that's not the case today as the relative humidity is high at low levels.  Additionally, the valley atmosphere is likely capped by a stable layer at about mid-mountain level, similar to what sometimes happens during winter inversions, so the up-valley and upslope flows are not penetrating through deep layer, but instead are capped at about mid-mountain level.  This is preventing deep penetration of the upslope flow vertically.  Instead, it hits the the stable layer, or "lid," and moves back over the valley aloft. 

These sorts of mid-slope valley clouds can be found in many mountain valleys.  Below is an example of one from the Inn Valley in Austria (see also our post Mid-Slope Valley Clouds from 31 January 2019).  

Perhaps today's cloud band is destined to die at some point today.  With surface heating, the valley atmosphere may dry out some, and the cloud band will dissipate.  Really, such a cloud band is about a zero on a meteorological scale of 1 to 10, but it does help us to understand the local flows in our part of the world.

Thursday, August 11, 2022

New GFS Products on

Upgrades to products on continue.  Today I added new hourly and total precipitation graphics for the GFS-13km dataset.  

There are actually products available on from three GFS datasets.  Products under GFS-0.25deg are based on a GFS dataset with quarter degree by quarter degree latitude/longitude grid spacing.  Products under GFS-13km are based on a GFS dataset with 13-km grid spacing.  Finally, the GFS-Downscaled products are downscaled here at the U to 800-meter grid spacing from the quarter degree GFS dataset.  

Confusing?  Try being me.  

Most people don't bother with the 13-km dataset for a few reasons.  Perhaps the main one is that it doesn't include many atmospheric variables, limiting its use for forecasting.  I don't know why this is, but it mostly includes land-surface variables.  Even precipitation is not provided except as a mean precipitation rate, which to make things complicated has varying intervals depending on the forecast hour.  It's not fun to deal with and I have to do a lot of algebraic manipulation of the data to extract hourly and total precipitation.  The math is straightforward, but it is easy to make mistakes in code.  

However, I personally like using the high-resolution precipitation in these models, although during the monsoon, the GFS precipitation is still fairly unrealistic looking.  Below are examples of the GFS-13km hourly precipitation and total precipitation from this morning's GFS run.

Compare to the corresponding HRRR forecast, which has a smaller grid spacing (3 km) and a more physically realistic (but still imperfect) structure. 

The GFS isn't designed, however, for short-range, detailed forecasts. It's designed for global forecasts going out to 16 days.  Still, the short-range forecasts from the GFS are useful and very important if you are a forecaster as no single model consistently outperforms another and in many instances ensembles of models are used for forecasting today.  

One product that is not available for the GFS-13km, but is available for the HRRR, is the radar and satellite composite.  This is because there is no synthetic radar or satellite analysis available from the GFS-13km dataset.  

Tuesday, August 9, 2022

Devastated Alpine Glaciers

It's been an awful year for glaciers and summer skiing in the European Alps. 

In 1985 there were 32 operating glacier skiing resorts in the European Alps. Not all of these operated year round, but most provided skiing for part of the warm season.  Only a handful remain today.  Two, Hintertux in Austria and Zermatt in Switzerland, have historically operated 365 days a year on upper-elevation glaciers.  Glacier areas in Saas Fe (Switzerland) and Passo Stelvio (Italy) are open in the summer but closed for other parts of the year.  Other resorts that operate for parts of the summer include Kitzsteinhorn (Austria), Mölltal (Austria), Les 2 Alpes (France), Tignes (France), and Cervinia (Italy).  Racing camps are probably a big part of their business.  

This year, however, Zermatt suspended operations on July 29.  As announced by Zermatt Bergbahnen,

"The mild winter of 2021/2022, which saw little snowfall, leaving only a thin covering of snow in Zermatt Bergbahnen's summer skiing area, combined with high summer temperatures and rainfall at over 4000 meters above sea level, necessitate a temporary discontinuation of summer skiing activities."

Summer skiing on glaciers typically requires seasonal snow.  The upper portions of glaciers are preferred for skiing because they often hold seasonal snow deep into or through the summer.  In recent years, tarps and snow farming have been used to preserve snow and extend the season.  I suspect at Zermatt there is a lack of sufficient seasonal snow to cover the firn (intermediate between snow and glacial ice) and glacial ice and fill crevasses.  Photos from Mölltaler Glacier in Austria from last summer and this summer show this has happened at that resort.  On August 6, 2021, a decent amount of seasonal snow cover remained on their upper-elevation terrain.  If you look carefully, you can see a couple of groomers to the right and what appear to be a few skiers and ski tracks near the top of that run.  


This August 6, the resort is unskiable. Only a few patches of seasonal snow remain.  


The Hintertux Glacier report from Ski Racing indicates a similar situation there, although they are still skiing (barely).  

Alpine glaciers have been losing mass for decades, but annual mass-loss rates have been increasing.  The most carefully studied glacier in Austria is the Hintereisferner southeast of Sölden and just north of the border with Italy (Scientists access the glacier via lifts at Val Senales in Italy).  Measurements illustrate a negative mass balance, meaning mass loss or summer melt exceeding winter accumulation, every year since 1983, with a trend towards larger mass losses each year.  
Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service (

Photos of the lower Hintereisferner show the retreat of the glacier front from 2018 to today, just a four year period.



We should see mass balance numbers for this past year fairly soon.  I suspect the numbers won't be pretty.  

Thursday, August 4, 2022

Monsoon Surge in the Offing

I'm liking what I am seeing in the latest model runs, which advertise a major surge of monsoon moisture and precipitation into northern Utah for Friday combined with forcing from a weak surface boundary to force the action.  Storminess could persist in some areas into Saturday.  

Below is the latest HRRR forecast of surface wind and 1-h accumulated precipitation valid 0000 UTC 6 August (6 PM MDT Friday).  Precipitation is mainly near or northwest of a surface boundary (shift in winds from southwesterly to the southeast to northerly or northwesterly near and behind) draped across central Nevada and northern Utah.  

The flow aloft favors the transport of deep monsoon moisture to this region, resulting in widespread shower (and thunderstorm) activity developing on Friday near and northwest of this boundary.  Showers and thunderstorms may also occur to the south of the boundary, but will be more scattered.  

Total accumulated precipitation through 0600 UTC 6 August (0000 MDT Saturday) shows the heaviest precipitation, with areas > 1 inch and pockets > 2.5" over Nevada (some of this precipitation falls today and tonight, especially over Nevada), but streaks of precipitation > 0.5" extend across northwest Utah.  Strong cells would likely produce more locally.  

The GFS sounding for the Salt Lake City airport at 2100 UTC 5 August (3 PM Friday) shows a stable layer just above the surface due to the shallow, cold northwesterly flow at low levels, but above 650 mb a skinny but deep layer of convective available potential energy or "skinny CAPE."  Total precipitable water is 32.2 mm (1.25 inches), which is fairly high for our part of the world.

Although the surface parcel in the sounding above is the "most unstable", meaning it has the highest CAPE, it is possible that some of these storms may be elevated, meaning that they are developing from instabilities above the surface rather than at the ground.  Mother Nature will provide the details.  And, while it is impossible to predict the precise characteristics and locations of convective storms at these lead times, this is a period where it will be worth monitoring forecasts and being alert to the possibility of severe weather, including heavy rain and flash flood potential. 

One possible fly in the ointment beyond the hit and miss nature of convective storms.  A look at the forecasts above shows that current forecasts call for the action to be greatest near, north, west, and southwest of Salt Lake.  This puts us on the edge of the best action.  Let's hope it doesn't shift northward or westward from advertised.  

Monday, August 1, 2022

Murderer's Row of July Temperature Records

We tied or broke virtually every temperature record related to "heat" that you can imagine during the month of July in Salt Lake City.  Buckle up.  Here we go.  

The average temperature for the month was 87.3˚F, 1.6˚F higher than the previous record set just last year and 6.1˚F higher than the highest mean July temperature observed in the 20th century (81.2˚F in 1960).  This is also the hottest month ever in Salt Lake City.  There's never been anything hotter.

The average maximum temperature was 99.7˚F, which beats the prior record set last year by 1.3˚F.  If you want the psych point, you can round that up and say we had an average high temperature of 100˚F for the month.

The average minimum temperature was an incredible 74.9˚F.  This is 1.8˚F higher than the prior record set just last year and obliterates everything from the 20th century.  The 20th century record was 68.5˚F in 1919 when the National Weather Service observing site was located in what is now downtown Salt Lake City (you can see when the site was moved to the "cooler" nighttime airport location in the mid 1920s as there is a clear drop in minimum temperatures that occur at that time).

Shall I go on?  18 days of 100˚F or more, which is a new record.  Maximum temperature of 107˚F on July 17, tying the all-time high reached previously on 26 July 1960, 13 July 2002, and 15 June 2021.  Minimum temperature of 81˚F on July 3, tied for 2nd all-time with 18 July 2016 and just behind the record set 13 July 2021.  Highest minimum temperature for the month (68˚F) on record.  I'm not sure where we stand on the number of days with a minimum of 70˚F or more, but it was surely near the record if not the record.  

What records didn't we set?  Anything related to low minimum or low maximum temperatures.  

Is there any good news?  Not really, but the HRRR is forecasting some showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening, as well as a few overnight for northern Utah, so keep your fingers crossed we at least get some precipitation action.  My house largely missed out on precipitation during July and my gardens are not happy.