Wasatch Weather Weenies

The last two days of March look to be warm and toasty by climatological standards as we get the warm southerlies ahead of a cold front that is expected to push into northern Utah late Tuesday. NAM 850-mb wind, temperature, and 3-h precipitation forecast valid 6 PM MDT 31 March. Yesterday's high at the Salt Lake City airport was 66ºF.  We'll tack some more onto that today with a high of about 74ºF.  Unless the front comes in faster than currently suggested by the models, it looks like a max in the high 70s tomorrow.  I give 80 a 20% chance (The NWS is going for the big 80).  The records are 77 and 80 for today and tomorrow, respectively. The warmth, however, will give us a shot for the warmest March on record.  So far, we've averaged 49ºF, tied with 2012 and 2014, and just behind 1992 (49.2), 1934 (49.2), 1910 (49.6), and 1879 (49.2).    Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers Can we top 1910?  Assuming a low last night of 40, a high tod...

It's been a beautiful weekend, providing some gorgeous views of City Creek Canyon.  The snowpack, however, is quite minimal with nary a patch of snow to be found except on the upper elevations of Grandview Peak. There are actually three SNOTEL stations in or near City Creek Canyon allowing us to get some idea about how this year compares to others.  The lowest is the Louis Meadow SNOTEL (6700 feet).  There must be a few patches of snow remaining in the lower canyon that can't be seen in the photo above as it is still registering a couple of inches of snow water equivalent (blue line).  This is about the equivalent of the median snowpack (red line) in late April.   The Hardscrabble SNOTEL is at 7250 feet behind Grandview Peak in this photo.  It too is running perhaps a month (or a bit more) ahead of median.    Finally, the Lookout Peak SNOTEL (8200 feet) hasn't yet begun to experience significant snowpack loss yet, but the equiv...

Lonnie Thompson presented a remarkable portrait of climate change as inferred from high-altitude tropical glaciers at last night's Frontiers of Science lecture at the University of Utah.  Aspects of the presentation that really got my attention include the following: 1. Ice cores from glaciers and ice caps provide a remarkable history of climate change extending back in some cases 800,000+ years (Antarctic ice). 2. The loss of glacial ice in the tropics is accelerating.  The race is on to obtain and preserve cores from these areas.  One of the figures presented by Lonnie derives from a recent paper by Cullen et al. (2013) who used photographs and three-dimensional visualization techniques to map the remarkable loss of ice on Mt. Kilimanjaro from 1912 to 2011.   Source: Cullen et al. (2013) The figure above emphasizes changes in glacial area, but there is also thinning.  Together, this results in a significant decline in ice volume.  Basically thes...

With no major storms in sight, we turn our attention today to the next most important question on skiers' minds. Is it snowier in Collins Gulch or the Supreme area at Alta?  I've always argued for the former, but I know many that argue for the latter (this is for total seasonal snowfall—the winner sometimes varies within individual storms). This fall, my students installed one of our low impact weather and snow measurement stations at 9603 feet in upper Albion Basin (special thanks to the cabin owners who are hosting the equipment) at a site we call "Top Cecret" since it is near the top of the Cecret chair (and thus in the Supreme area).  The idea was to get some experience operating this equipment in a deep snow environment. We were hoping for some challenges.  Tripods are best used in no snow or lower snow environments.  In deep snow environments, you run into two issues.  One is that the creep of the snowpack can mangle the tripod.  The other is that...

If you are interested in climate science and policy, there are two great opportunities for learning more tomorrow (Thursday) at talks being given in Salt Lake City.  They overlap, so clone yourself or get a time turner and get to both. Thursday, March 26 Dr. Lonnie Thompson Frontiers of Science Lecture "Global Climate Change, ENSO and Black Swans: A Paleoclimate Perspective from the World’s Highest Mountains” http://science.utah.edu/events/frontiers.php 6:00 – 7:30 PM 220 Aline Skaggs Building University of Utah Dr. Lonnie Thompson.  Source: The Ohio State University Thursday, March 26 Dr. Katharine Hayhoe  7:00 to 8:00 pm Clark Planetarium, 110 S 400 West, SLC https://www.facebook.com/events/770350773035612/ Dr. Katherine Hayhoe.  Source: http://katharinehayhoe.com/

Yesterday evening, there were a few fireworks in the Salt Lake Valley, but you might have missed them if you blinked.  Some stronger cells popped up near the south shore of the Great Salt Lake just before 8 PM MDT and I saw a lightning flash or two during this period. The band along which these cells formed moved southeastward and, although weakening, gave a final blast of snow to the central Cottonwoods. If you are going out skiing today, I suspect you will find a large increase in snowfall from 8000 to 9000 feet.  Accumulations at 8500 feet and above in upper Little Cottonwood look to be around 6 inches.  The Big Cottonwood resorts are reporting a bit more.  At Solitude, my bet is the 10 inches they are reporting is for the summit and you'll find a lot less at the base. A quick hitter late today through about midnight will lay down a couple more inches in the mountains and some valley showers, bringing to an end our brief flirtation with spring showers....

Every couple of weeks Mother Nature allows a storm or two to slip through the net and give us a brief break from the death ridge.  One of those storms is here this morning as a cold front is sweeping across northern Utah bringing valley showers and mountain snow showers.  We'll then have a break later tonight and Tuesday, with another front coming in Tuesday night, after which the death ridge returns. Two fronts sounds exciting, but this really isn't a major storm cycle by old-fashioned Utah standards. In the upper Cottonwoods, the NAM is generating about .3 inches of water and 4 inches of snow today and tonight, with another .2 water/2 inches of snow with the front on Tuesday night (see lower two panels below). My usual approach in the winter is to use the NAM as the low-end of the forecast range for Alta, but such an approach doesn't typically do as well in the spring when storms on average feature less orographic enhancement.  In addition, this looks like a patte...

Photos of Mt. Superior from Alta Ski Area show the two extremes of the Wasatch snow climate on 11 June 2011 (a season with about 800 inches of snow at 9500 feet and cold weather deep into the spring) and 21 March 2015 (a season with about 250 inches of snow - so far - at 9500 feet and record warmth.   The answer is probably not during the period of reliable snow records at Alta-Guard, which begin after WWII, but there are a few nuances to consider, especially with regards to snowpack.  What we know is that this winter the Dec-Feb period was the warmest on record (since 1895) in the northern mountains climate zone that includes the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains.  The closest analog in the instrumented record is 1933/34, but that was before reliable snow records at Alta-Guard.  The only other Dec-Feb period with temperatures close to this winter is 1980/81.  More on that season in a minute. Source: NCDC What about March?  Well, the temperature ...

Sometime yesterday morning, the Wasatch Weather Weenies hit 1,000,000 lifetime page views. Our first post was on October 1st, 2010.  Initially, we were an invite only blog, but response was overwhelming, so I decided to open it to the public, trollers and all :-).  I'm so glad I did as it's been great fun writing for everyone.  Page views by month show that we pick up more readers each winter.  Where everyone goes in the summer I have no idea! Our first winter was amazing.  Huge amounts of snow, lots of storms, and lots of skiing.  I logged 66 days of skiing that season, including 3 days on Mt. Rainier with my son around July 1st.  Ah, those were the days. Since then, both snowfall and my back have been on the downswing, but we've found plenty to talk about anyway.  In case you are interested in looking back, here are the 10 most viewed posts.  A few of these have been boosted by people following Google searches for specific phrases ...

An paper published last month in Water Resources Research,  Lute et al. (2015)  provide an interesting and insightful look at projected changes in snowfall and winter storms over the western U.S. through the mid 21st century (2040–2069) based on climate models run for the most recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.  They use statistical techniques trained with historical data to downscale these course-resolution climate model projections and obtain snowfall and winter storm trends at SNOTEL station locations across the west.  Not surprisingly, the results are fairly sobering for the skiers and lovers of snow. To begin, we need to review the climatology of SNOTEL stations across the west.  SNOTELs are remote weather and snowpack observing stations used for a variety of purposes, but primarily water resource management and forecasting.  They tend to be located in sheltered locations and, within a given mountain range, typically at mid elevations (e.g., mid mo...

It has been a remarkable Dec-Feb (Northern Hemisphere winter/Southern Hemisphere summer) globally, regionally, and locally.  Globally, it was the warmest Dec-Feb period on record, eclipsing the previous record set in 2006/07. Source: NCDC For the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, it was a scorcher.  Only 2006/07 is close and there are only five years within even 0.5ºF, which is a big number when talking about average climate over an entire hemisphere.  Source: NCDC In the contiguous US, we were a country divided.  The entire Pacific coast and much of the southwest saw their warmest Dec-Feb on record.  Most of the remaining mountain west was much above average.  Most of the east was below average, but no climate zones has a top-10 coldest winter.   Source: NCDC However, February was a fairly exceptional month in the east with many climate zones in the upper midwest and the north east observing their coldest or 2nd coldest February...

Source: phillbarron.files.wordpress.com According to the Utah Avalanche Center , Alta Guard has had only 213.5 inches of snow since November.  Yesterday I waited for the bus at 6:45 am in a pair of shorts.  We set record highs the past 3 days at the Salt Lake City airport.  Even with a bit of cooling today, we're still well above average. The models show dry, mild conditions continuing over northern Utah through the weekend.  There are hints that we might see a trough passage next week, but this looks to be another example of a trough "slipping through the net," followed by the return of the ridge that has been seemingly omnipresent over the west all winter. I've decided that I am going to root for Alta Guard to break its all time record for least snowy season (314.5" for November through April).  Yeah, I've talked about the possibility of breaking this record a few times, but now I am going to root for it, going against everything that I stand for ...

Last year, after I spent some time enjoying the intense snowstorms of the Tug Hill Plateau, we did a fun comparison of the snowfall climate of that region with the Wasatch Mountains (see Cage Match: Tug Hill Plateau vs. Wasatch Mountains ).  I thought we might have a look see at how things are faring this year. Regular snowfall observations on the Tug Hill Plateau are available from a National Weather Service cooperative observer at a site known as "Hooker" (for reasons I've never understood) on the northern plateau near the village of Copenhagen.  So far this year, Copenhagen has had 259.4 inches of snow, although data for the last 3 days are missing, and they may have added a bit to the total the past couple of days.   Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers A web cam image from my friends at northernchateau.com shows a healthy snowpack in nearby Montague.   Source: northernchateau.com Now let's return to Utah.  The cooperative observer at Alt...

Mt. Baker, which averages nearly 650 inches of snow a year (thought to be the highest of any ski area in the in the world) and received a world record 1,140 inches of snow in the 1998/99 season, is temporarily closed for lack of snow. A video discussing the decision is provided below.   SNOTEL data shows a pretty grim picture with regards to snowpack in the Pacific states and southern Arizona and New Mexico.   The causes of these low totals, however, vary geographically.  In southern Oregon, California, and southern Arizona and New Mexico, it's been a combination of below average precipitation and warmth has led to the low snowpack.  In contrast, in Washington, it's actually precipitation has actually been near or above average, but most storms have brought rain to elevations that typically receive snow.  Let's have a look at data from a couple of SNOTEL stations in the North Cascades.  The first is Wells Creek, which is west of the Ca...

There's nothing quite like the beaches of the Great Salt Lake during spring break (ha ha)!  Photo: Emerald View Resorts. Spring break is upon us and college students will be flocking to the shores of the Great Salt Lake for some hard-core partying.   Ooops, this is Utah.  Spring break is about recreating, meaning skiing, climbing, mountain biking, hiking, etc.  Looks like you will be able to do any of these this week. The flow over the area is expected to be characterized by ridging or split flow through the end of next week.  Below is the medium range guidance for Wednesday afternoon. Source NWS Such a pattern means above average temperatures will likely prevail for the period.  This weekend will be especially warm and looks marvelous statewide, with temperatures well above average (We may crack 70 on at the Salt Lake airport on Sunday).  Sunblock! Overall, precipitation should be below normal through the period, but there are a...

Dr. Lonnie Thompson receiving the Medal of Science from President George W. Bush I have lots of ideas for blog topics today, but I'm tabling them as I would like to alert everyone to an opportunity to hear from a pioneering research scientist. At 6 PM on Thursday March 26th, Dr. Lonnie Thompson, Distinguished University Professor, School of Earth Sciences at The Ohio State University and Senior Research Scientist, Byrd Polar Research Center, will give a University of Utah Frontiers of Science lecture entitled " Global Climate Change, ENSO, and Black Swans: A Paleoclimate Perspective from the World's Highest Mountains " in 220 Aline Skaggs Wilmot Building (ASB).  More detailed information available here . This will certainly be a great talk for Wasatch Weather Weenies, lovers of mountains, and those passionate snow and ice.  Lonnie's research involves ice-core paleoclimate studies from tropical and subtropical glaciers and ice fields in the Andes, Himalaya,...

Capracotta, Italy.  Source:  http://www.meteoweb.eu/2015/03/ufficiale-capracotta-pescocostanzo-battuto-record-mondiale-neve-foto-incredibili/408690/ Yesterday evening, reports of a world-record 100.8 inch snowfall in 18 hours in Capracotta, Italy went viral.  The original source of this report is the Italian weather site meteoweb.eu (click here to access).  94.5 inches was reported in Pescocostanzo.  This sort of thing is what the Wasatch Weather Weenies live for!  Let's have a look. Capracotta is located in central Italy on the east side of the Apennine Mountains at an elevation of 1,421 meters (4,662 ft).  The Adriatic Sea lies to the east.  The Tyrrhenian Sea is to the west. The storm occurred on the 5th of March when an intense cyclone developed over the region.  The storm was deepest over the Tyrrhenian Sea, but a secondary low center also developed over the Adriatic Sea (plots below based on 6-hour GFS forecas...