Enjoy the "cool" weather this week because I just looked at the forecast and hell is coming.
One of my rules of thumb is the 20/20 rule for temperature. Anything below -20C or above 20C at 700 mb (about 10,000 feet) is exceptional for northern Utah.
The latest GFS forecast for 0000 UTC 12 July (6 PM MDT Thursday) have us in the 20–22C range.
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| Source: https://apps.gsl.noaa.gov/nbmviewer |
The NWS is already messaging the potential for dangerous, record-breaking heat.
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| Source: NWS, obtained 3 July 2024 |
A cruel reminder that July is a four-letter word.
I have been in the Ut for 33 years at this point and there was never a time when july/aug weren't hell! Has there ever been a cool August in Utah?
ReplyDeleteYes, these months are hot, but they are getting hotter. Five year running-mean average temperatures for these two months are now running more than 2F higher than they did for most of the 20th century.
Deletehttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/42/tavg/2/8/1895-2024?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000&filter=true&filterType=running-mean
Further, the last July-Aug with a statewide average temperature below the 20th century mean for those two months was in 2004, and that was only 0.1F below the 20th centrury mean (ditto for 1999).
DeleteSo, for all intents and purposes, we really havnen't had a "cool" July-August this century.
Question for you - is it just me, or do diurnal ranges seem a bit wider this summer than in previous years? It seems like the nights are mostly staying cool even when the days are hot, which I don't remember being the case last summer (lots of 70+ lows). I checked the June data, and the average high for the month was farther above average than the average low, which seems to support my impression, but not by much. Curious to hear your thoughts. Even if I'm just imagining it, I'm grateful for it.
ReplyDeleteJune average daily temperature range: 25.9F
Delete30-year average: 25.1F
So a bit more of a range than average.
It’s always astonished me that a place that can get so much snow in the winter can be so blisteringly hot in the summer.
ReplyDeleteDid a trail run at Alta yesterday and only had to cross a few small snowfields at the lower end of the Ballroom. On the Fourth of July in 1993 and 1995, the entire mountain was snow covered, including under the tow between the Albion and Wildcat base. I skied top to bottom both years. There were even some snow flurries hiking up in 1993. Different time, different climate.
ReplyDelete