Wasatch Weather Weenies

There will be a subtle change in the weather this week as a bit of monsoon moisture streams up into Utah.   I hesitate to call it a monsoon surge as it's not a strong one.  We'll call it a pulse. The GFS forecast valid at 1800 UTC 2 July (1200 MDT Wednesday) shows the key players and features.  The first is is a weak, slow moving trough in the westerlies over California (L in the upper-left panel).   The second is what is known as an easterly wave that is moving slowly westward and best evident at 700 mb (dashed line lower-left panel) and is contributing to the development of Tropical Storm Flossie, that is expected to be a hurricane by this forecast time (red L in lower-left and upper-right panels).   The phasing of these features leads to a narrow plume of high integrated vapor transport (red arrow lower-right panel) that extends from Flossie, up the Gulf of California, and up the lower Colorado River Basin into Nevada and Utah.   As a...

The budget cuts currently being considered by the US congress would have devastating impacts on American science and STEM workforce development, including the atmospheric and related sciences.  They are not surgical.  They will seriously impede American science and the education of students in science and engineering.   I have reproduced below an e-mail that I received yesterday from the leadership of the American Meteorological Society summarizing these cuts and their related impacts.  Links are provided if you are interested in contacting your Senator.   -------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you to everyone who has taken action by reaching out to members of Congress and sharing your perspectives on the critical importance of the weather, water, and climate enterprise to our nation and the federal government's foundational role. The weather enterprise keeps all citizens prepared for hazardous extreme events and helps to ...

Our brief run of below average temperatures will probably end today (Thursday, June 26) after five wonderfully cool days, including Sunday, June 22nd when we only reached 65.  The hiking that day was wonderfully cool, especially in the morning.  No complaints about wet brush, which we encountered a lot of, as it was nice to enjoy the cool, moist air. The National Weather Service is forecasting a high of 93 for the Satl Lake City Airport today, which will push us back above average. Highs in the 90s look to continue for the forseeable future.  Sigh...

I hope you are enjoying this weekend's pleasant temperatures.  It was great to open the house up this morning and let the 50-something air pour in.   I thought it would be interesting to take a peek at some stats from the first 2/3 of June. The average temperature for the first 20 days of June was 76.4°F, which rates as the 2nd highest on record.  Additionally, there has been no measurable precipitation at the airport since May 18th.  Basically a worst-case scenario for drying in the early part of summer.  Then we hit 104 on Thursday, which rates as the fourth highest temperature recorded at the airport prior to June 30.   Combined with wind and low humidity, Thursday (and to a decent degree Friday) brought "hair dryer" conditions to Salt Lake City, with dangerous fire weather conditions across most of Utah, including southwest Utah where the Forsyth and France Canyon fires are raging.  Per the Salt Lake Tribune , as of Friday afternoon ...

It will take a while to get here, but a bonafide trough will be coming to Utah for the weekend. Before that, we're going to be in the so-called warm-before-the-storm (in this case a dry frontal passage with dust) with a ridge building over Utah today. The ridge will be followed by the development of warm southwesterly flow ahead of the trough later in the week, as illustrated by the GFS forecast below for 0000 UTC 21 June (6 PM MDT Friday). Although yesterday's high was "only" 87 and this morning was pleasant, our July like weather returns for the rest of the work week with NWS forecast highs for the Salt Lake City airport of 92 today, 102 Thursday, and 96 on Friday.  Critical fire weather conditions will be in place for much of this period. Saturday is a transition day with the front forecast to be moving over northern Utah at 0000 UTC 22 June (6 PM MDT Saturday).   Depending on your location and exposure, this looks like a recipe for dust Friday and Saturday in both...

This afternoon (Thursday July 12) I heard a few claps of thunder in the Aves with a very brief shower that didn't quite fully wet the sidewalk.  It was about the most exciting thing to happen weatherwise in a while. The last day with measurable rain at the Salt Lake City International Airport was May 25th, 18 days ago.  Hot and dry will be the weather story for the foreseeable future.  Nearly all members of the Utah "Snow" ensemble are showing nothing over the next seven days, although there is a member or two that pops up a stray shower here or there (look hard to see if you can find them).  So, maybe we get lucky, but for the most part, as promised a few days ago, June is the new July.  At least the humidity is low.  

Yesterday's high at the Salt Lake City International Airport was 90.  The NWS forecast for today is also 90 and every day through next Sunday has forecast highs in the 90s. Source: NWS.  Downloaded 0802 MDT 9 June 2025. These are July-like highs, although the nighttime mins in the 60s may make things a bit more tolerable. That said, I'm not a fan of long stretches of July-like weather in June.  It often makes summer unbearably long.  Let's hope the latter half of the month is cooler.

Both the Atwater and Snowbird SNOTELs look like they will hit the end of the snowcover season today or tomorrow.   The Atwater site is across from Alta Ski Area.  This is a relatively new site with only a few years of data, so don't read too much into the median or range of prior data.  It currently sits at 0.3" of water equivalent, which for all intents and purposes puts it at zero today.   Snowbird sits at 1.9", but it has been a flaky site all season and only declined from 2.2 to 1.9" yesterday, which makes little sense, but it's not unusual to see some odd observations when the snowpack is near the end.   Regardless, it looks to be done by tomorrow or the day after that at latest.   These are of course point observations, so there's still going to be some snow out there, but as far as the SNOTEL observations are concerned, this is the end of the snow season in the central Wasatch.  

 As I type this on Sunday afternoon (June 1), the temperature at the Salt Lake City International Airport is about 92°F at 2 PM.  The record for the day is 94°F, so we have a solid shot at tying or eclipsing that.  A high of 94 is also consistent with the average high for July 11, so we're getting a too early taste of mid summer.   Fortunately a weak cold front is coming through tomorrow morning.  Tomorrow afternoon will be more pleasant than today with cooler, drier, northwesterly flow.   Right now it's looking like the frontal passage will probably be a dry one in Salt Lake.  The NWS forecasts give us the not quite zero possibility of a shower or thunderstorm: "A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 3am." Hopefully we see something, although my expectations are for nothing.  At least it will be cooler tomorrow.