Wasatch Weather Weenies

Below average temperatures in northern Utah have been few and far between the past few months, but the latter half of September has delivered the cool goods.  Since the 14th, we've only had three days with an above average maximum, and even most of the minima have been below average as well.  Simply splendid! Source: National Weather Service Leaves are starting to go now.  The cell-phone photo below doesn't do them justice as some there are some reds and yellows out there that are really starting to pop.   With snow on the mountains, the feel has been more of October than September, but I'm not complainin'

I became a beer snob when I moved to Seattle in 1989 where there was already an flourishing microbrew scene.  Today, the term "craft beer" might be better since there are many excellent beers brewed by breweries of a variety of sizes.  Some of these beers (and even some breweries) have weather, snow, and ski-related names.  Let's see if we can get a list together.  Here are a few of my favorite-named beers.  Most I've tried, but not all.  Inversion IPA, Deschutes Brewing.  I typically drink IPAs in the summer, but this one takes the sting out of Utah's pollution during the winter. Red Chair NWPA, Deschutes Brewing Snow Cap, Pyramid.  This has long been one of my favorite winter ales, although it is not currently advertised on the Pyramid web site.  Hopefully it will arrive later this fall. Edmund Fitzgerald Porter, Great Lakes Brewing .  I'm a big Porter fan during the cool season.  The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald...

Yesterday was a remarkable September day, with record low maximum temperatures set at many northern Utah sites. Source: National Weather Service The recipe for a record low maximum temperature in northern Utah is to have not only a cold airmass, but also steady precipitation all day so that diurnal heating is limited.  Those ingredients were abundant yesterday.  Precipitation totals reported to the National Weather Service as of 8 PM last night included 1.46" in the upper Avenues, 1.34" in Cottonwood Heights, and 1.28" in East Mill Creek.  The Salt Lake City International Airport observed 0.89" of precipitation.   I was shocked and surprised that we did not set a record low maximum at the airport, but the high reached 48ºF, whereas the record, set in 1934, is an incredible 41ºF. In the mountains, it was Sunday Snowy Sunday.  I've seen reports from Alta of anywhere from 11 to 14 inches.  The Alta-Collins automated snow-depth sensor was at fiv...

In a tweet sent out at 8:21 AM, Alta Central reported 6 inches of snow overnight in the Town of Alta. Albion Basin Summer Rd temporarily closed due to snow. Town of Alta 6 inches of snow and 28 degrees. — Alta Central (@AltaCentral) September 24, 2017 Snowbird's Iron Blosam Cam shows a wintery scene. More snow is coming today.  I suspect Alta will see the total reach about foot by the time things taper off this evening.

Here are some numbers for the Salt Lake City Airport to put the cold of yesterday and today into perspective. 22 September Observed Maximum Temperature: 53 Average Maximum Temperature: 76 Record Lowest Maximum Temperature: 52 (1895) Observed Minimum Temperature: 41 Average Minimum Temperature: 50 Record Lowest Minimum Temperature: 29 23 September Forecast Maximum Temperature: 57 Average Maximum Temperature: 76 Record Lowest Maximum Temperature: 47 (2000) Observed Minimum Temperature: 40 (AM minimum, will likely stand for day) Average minimum Temperature: 50 Record Lowest Minimum Temperature: 31 So, what has been most impressive from a cold perspective is yesterday's maximum, which was nearly a record low maximum for the day. Minimum temperatures are below average, but no where near records. One of the great things about being a professor is having former students visit to take you out into the mountains.  I went out with a couple of my former graduate students ...

After a blistering hot warmest summer on record, the last few hours of summer giving us a blissful kiss of winter with a fresh coat of of snow in the mountains.  Source: Snowbird It's a bit difficult to gauge accumulations from what automated sensors are running right now in the Wasatch, but my guess based on the Alta-Collins total snow depth sensor is that they got about 3 inches or so overnight.  We'll see some additional snow showers today, although accumulations will perhaps be an angry inch.  Tomorrow may provide a bit of a cold break, but given the instability, the possibility of snow showers remains.  Although accumulations will likely be limited, if I get out hiking, my plan will be to be ready for anything.  Even a brief period of snow squalls can be damn uncomfortable if you are traveling light.  The big question mark for the weekend is what will happen as the trough swings Saturday night and Sunday.  The models are hinting that a m...

Looks like a beautiful sunrise up in the Wasatch this morning, with a dusting of snow covering the mid and upper elevations. Source: Snowbird More September snow is in the way, although this is a fairly tricky forecast because the front that will drive our next round of precipitation is expected to slow and pivot as it moves into northwest Utah. This results in challenges in both the timing and amount of precipitation expected.  This does, however, look to be an event that will produce some additional mid- and upper-elevation snowfall. Most members of our downscaled SREF product are generating 0.4 to 0.8 inches of water equivalent for the event, with a mean of just over a half inch.  Note that there are contrasts in timing with some members getting things started Thursday afternoon, others later Thursday or Thursday night. By and large, this looks to be a "dust on dirt" event, with perhaps 2-5 inches of snow for a storm total at Alta.  If that comes throug...

Friday's storm brought a bit of the white stuff to the upper-elevations of the Wasatch Range, providing a boost to the morale of skiers and a nice contrast to the comparatively green grassy slopes remaining in early September. By and large, the pattern over the next several days is more October like than September like.  First, we have a quick moving trough that gives us a brush-by late Monday and Tuesday.  This isn't a very deep trough and it's a close call on the placement of precipitation, but it could bring some light snow accumulations to the high elevations. Then we have a deeper trough with the attendant cold front currently progged to push through Thursday morning.  This one is far enough out that we should be cautious about reading into details too much, but its a cold system for September (-4ºC at 700 mb/10,000 ft) and has some potential to give us a better coating than Friday's storm. Then, the main upper-level trough and deep cold pocket swing...

Snowbird has done a complete upgrade of their web site and perhaps their web cams because they seem so much better than they were a couple of months ago.  The Hidden Peak Cam is amazing.  You can't do it justice with a screengrab, but this morning's is below showing the dusting of snow, but also the abrupt transition of visibility when one gets to the top of what I think is the smoke layer that moved in with the latest cold surge. Source: Snowbird This is a meteorological preference, but I'd like to see a time stamp on these images, but I suspect they don't want to spoil them.  There is an indication of how old the images are on the web site. BTW, it is a bit convoluted how to find the full size images on Snowbird's web site.  The direct link is here .  High frequency animations would also be appreciated (hint hint).

To all the pundits and activists out there acting like you are experts on extreme weather, hurricanes, and climate change, I have only one thing to say. PUT A SOCK IN IT This is a remarkably complex and difficult subject and you people are running around acting like you have it all figured out.  And there's plenty of room for a beatdown of people on both the right and left of this issue.  Gosh, the articles I am reading and discussions I am seeing are so absolutely horrific and they are setting weather and climate science back decades. To those on the left who are conflating weather and climate, take a deep breath and let the scientists do their work and figure this out.  Don't lose sight of the fact that the IPCC issued a comprehensive report on extreme weather and climate change in 2012 entitled " Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation ."  Here's what they had to say: "The uncertainties in the histor...

I know I should be talking about the changes underway in Utah's weather, but I'm still suffering from a case of Irma-itis, amongst other maladies.   So, instead, I want to address some questions being asked by our readers about Irma's track shift. I am neither a theoretician, nor a hurricane expert, so let me just come out and say it.  I don't understand hurricane dynamics well enough to answer these questions in what I consider a satisfying way. On the other hand, sometimes it's not worth thinking too much about these things. The ability to for numerical weather prediction systems (hereafter computer models) to predict the shift in Irma's track reflects the culmination of decades of research not just in atmospheric sciences, but also computer science, remote sensing, and other fields. A human, even with all the incredible observations we have today, could never have anticipated that shift with such precision days in advance without computer models.  T...

I'm still feeling frisky this morning about several issues, so the not so deep thoughts continue. Anderson Cooper is clueless With Irma still threatening the southeast, I continue to scan the news coverage and find appalling statements.  Anderson Cooper has been especially effective at getting under the nerves of this meteorologist. Last night, while interviewing the Mayor of Jacksonville, which was hit with severe flooding yesterday, he made the dumbfounding statement that "clearly people were caught off guard."  No Anderson, people in mandatory evacuation zones were not caught off guard.  Social media and other communications challenges It's been clear in the snippets that I've caught of Anderson that he really likes the caught off guard/surprise narrative.  This is very common amongst reporters because people love that angle.  It makes the story more interesting. Anderson has frequently brought up the "westward shift" of Irma and how it surp...

Hurricane Irma made two landfalls in Florida yesterday, one in the Keys, the other near Marcos Island on the southwest coast.  The low center subsequently tracked through west Florida and as of 8 AM EDT (6 AM MDT) was near the Florida coast west of Gainesville.  Source: National Hurricane Center Impacts cover the entire Florida Peninsula and Keys.  Although "worst case" scenarios did not play out for some, others are suffering severely.  Do not fixate on the news coverage, which shows a small microcosm of storm damage.  Everglades City, for example, wasn't even mentioned in the coverage I viewed yesterday, but reports heavy damage this morning .  Jacksonville is currently experiencing river and storm surge flooding.  News reports suggest almost 6 million people are without power.  Florida took a serious blow along nearly its entirely coastline and interior and it will take some time until we know the scope of it.  Recovery will take muc...

Sobering words from the National Weather Service Key West Forecast Office in a tweet issued yesterday (Friday) afternoon. NOTE: Tweet issued Friday with info as of 5 PM EDT.  Access the latest forecasts at  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ That office is in a heavily fortified building designed to survive a hurricane.  I found it quite emotional watching a video late yesterday of them closing the storm shutters in preparation for Irma. As I write this Saturday morning, Irma is sliding along the north coast and islands of Cuba.  Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 130 mph as it has been weakened some during interaction with Cuba. Nevertheless, Irma remains a very large, powerful, and dangerous hurricane, and the National Hurricane Center anticipates restrengthening. Irma will make landfall in Florida, but where will depend on the track.  The so-called "cone of uncertainty" contains the likely path of the low center, and covers most of the peninsula and...

Not so random thoughts on this Thursday. Confessions of an Ivory Tower Meteorologist I have something that I need to get off my chest.  Something that bothers me deeply.  I get excited about extreme weather.   I can barely sleep during weather events like Harvey and Irma, and I'm not even all that interested in tropical meteorology .  I feel guilty about this.  After all, these storms are horrific, taking lives and destroying communities. However, I also feel terror and nausea looking at both forecasts and the aftermath of these events.  It's a weird mélange of feelings.  Meteorologists Are People Too The National Hurricane Center is located in Miami.  Our nation is fortunate to have such a dedicated men and women working 24/7 to monitor and forecast tropical storms such as Irma.  Keep in mind that these meteorologists, their families, and their homes are also in the crossfire of Irma.  Utah Alums Contribute to the Effort...

Hurricane Irma remains an extremely powerful and dangerous category 5 hurricane, after passing over St. Martin this morning. Source: NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center Here's a shot as the system passed over Barbuda overnight. Source: NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center Wind observations from Barbuda show the remarkable increase in wind speed with the approach of the eye, reaching a maximum sustained velocity of nearly 120 mph and a peak gust of 155 mph before the sensor gave out. Source: MesoWest These are simply incredible numbers, especially that the winds at the time were out of the north and the site is on the south side of Barbuda. From now through Saturday, the center of Irma is expected to track just to the north or along Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba. Source: NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center Forecasts for Florida and the southeast US are remarkably tricky and depend strongly on when Irma takes the anticipated northw...