Wasatch Weather Weenies

Comments and actions from both elected and appointed national leaders have raised serious concerns in academia and the science community about the communication and funding of science.  One example is the house bill that was introduced several days ago to prohibit US contributions to the IPCC, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Green Climate Fund. An example of draconian measures being proposed to silence or limit science communication in the US In this post, I'd like to take the opportunity to share my experiences concerning the importance of science funding for innovation and economic growth in the United States based on my 30 year career as a student, researcher, and educator in the areas of weather and climate. I grew up in a small town in rural upstate New York, graduating with a class of 45 from Perth Central School, which included grades K-12 in the same building.  My father was an engineer and a first-generation college graduate who required a...

This morning's view of the Utah valley from Lake Mountain. #utwx pic.twitter.com/eNTYHmcOl4 — NWS Salt Lake City (@NWSSaltLakeCity) January 30, 2017 Whether they call it haze, smog, or gunk, steel yourselves as the week ahead looks like a grey and polluted one. Salt Lake's all-time sea-level pressure record based on data I obtained from Weather Underground appears to be 31.09 inches of mercury (1052.8 mb) (surface pressure is reduced to sea level for convenience when analyzing surface maps since surface pressure analyses look like topographic maps).  Although we won't break that during the current high-pressure event, we peaked at 30.95 inches of mercury (1048.0 mb) on Saturday, which is quite high. Source: MesoWest Although we've retreated a bit from that maximum, strong high pressure remains firmly in control.  In addition, this morning's sounding shows a whopper of an inversion based at about 840 mb (1600 m above sea level).  Temperatures increase ab...

One final upgrade is planned for the current version of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) Forecast System The North American Mesoscale (NAM) Forecast System is scheduled for its final upgrade on February 1st.  Just in time for Groundhog Day, this upgrade to NAM "version 4" includes a number of major changes including: Changes in the grid spacing of the CONUS NAM nest from 4 to 3 km, Alaska nest from 6 to 3 km, and CONUS fire-weather nest from 1.333 to 1.5 km.  Yes, the latter is a decrease in resolution, but probably not significant. More frequent calls of some model physics packages to every 2nd time step and more frequent radiation calls for the NAM 12-km domain Specific humidity advection now done every time step (shockingly, this wasn't already being done) Changes to the model convective parameterization in the 12-km domain Updated cloud microphysics Land-surface model improvements Completely updated data assimilation system Use of a new climatology of f...

Professor Powder with Professor Lance Bosart at the Bosart Symposium I know I've been neglecting the topics that motivate many of you to come to the blog during my travels the past few weeks, but I hope you will tolerate one more important digression. This week I have been attending the Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society.  I am typically not a fan of the annual meeting because it is simply overwhelming in size (typically more than 20 conferences held jointly), but this year's was a career highlight.  The meeting features two named symposia each year and this year they were held for Bob Houze, a former professor of mine at the University of Washington, and Lance Bosart, who has had a ginormous impact on weather prediction in this country and has been a friend and mentor for almost 30 years.  Even if you haven't heard of Lance Bosart, he has made your life better through weather forecasting.  He has published more than 200 papers related t...

For those of you shoveling snow again in Utah today, this is probably no surprise, but the snowpack snow water equivalent across our region, as well as most of the central and southern Western US is looking quite healthy for late January.  The only area of the west with widespread below median snowpack snow water equivalent is in Washington, northern Idaho, and Montana, but even there, they aren't running way below average. Source: NRCS The plot above includes only the NRCS SNOTEL observations.  California, where water flows uphill to money, has its own snowpack sensors covering much of the southern and central Sierra.  You can see that the snowpack across that region is also quite robust (values below % of average rather than median). Source: California–Nevada River Forecast Center The LA Times reported yesterday that Mammoth Mountain has received 246 inches of snow so far this month, breaking the previous January record of 209 inches . Regional snowpack st...

What is the snowiest place in Utah right now? I'll give you a hint.  It's neither Alta nor Snowbird. Nor is it anywhere in the central Wasatch (and this is not fake news!). It's Ben Lomond Peak, just to the northeast of Ogden.  In fact, for a given elevation, the area around Ben Lomond Peak and the north Ogden Valley is the snowiest place in the state at present and climatologically. Source: Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth Let me share with you some crazy numbers to illustrate just how snowy it is in that area this year.  At noon MST today in Little Cottonwood Canyon, the Alta-Collins (9622 ft) snow depth was 120 inches.  The nearby Snowbird SNOTEL (9144 ft) had a snowpack snow water equivalent of 32.8 inches. Impressive, but let's look at the real king of Utah snow.  At the Ben Lomond Trail SNOTEL, at a lowly elevation of 5829 ft, more than 3000 feet lower than Alta-Collins and the Snowbird SNOTEL , the snow depth at noon MST today was 99 i...

I am once again out of town and once again the Steenburgh Effect is in full force. Yes, you can say that it snowed plenty while I was back in Salt Lake through yesterday morning, but the water equivalent rates have gone through the roof since I left.  Note the steeper slope of the current storm after I departed compared to the prior one when I was in town. Source: MesoWest Coincidence?  I think not. Of course that is entirely unscientific. It is mere coincidence I'm out of town, but sometimes I wonder... The snow overnight is also of high density, resulting in upside down snow.  That, and the addition of wind and further weight on weak layers that developed before the prior storm, is pushing the snowpack to the breaking point. The Utah Avalanche Center has issued a backcountry avalanche warning for the mountains of northern Utah, including the Wasatch. And, as I write this, Little Cottonwood Canyon is closed at Alta is interlodged.  Expected highwa...

In the wake of yesterday's Cottonwood Snowmageddon, we take a look back at the meteorological good, bad, and ugly. The good is that with all the snow over the past 3 days, the total snow depth at Alta-Collins has eclipsed 100" (250 cm). STEENBURGH WINTER IS HERE!!! For the first time since the 2010/11 ski season, we have over 100 inches of snow at Alta-Collins before February 10.  Steenburgh winter is that magical period where we have such a snowpack before February 10, when the sun begins to have a much stronger influence on snow conditions in the Wasatch range.  Enjoy the deep snow and the low angle sun while they last. Now, getting to the bad: Forecasts for Friday night.  From 4 PM Friday to 8 AM Saturday, Alta-Collins got 15", including 13" from 5 PM Friday to 5 AM Saturday with 0.55" of water.   Such accumulations were much greater than forecast.  I did not put numbers on the snowfall for this blog, but expected only a modest refresh of a few i...

Snow totals in the upper Cottonwoods were generally in line with expectations with about 5 inches falling.  An exception was the Park City Ridgeline and Brighton area which came in with perhaps 3 inches according to the Utah Avalanche Center. For much of the day yesterday, radar echoes were strongest over western portions of the central Wasatch, with echoes weaker along the Park City Ridgeline and in the Brighton area.  You can see this fairly well in the radar plot below.  I suspect this reflects the relatively weak flow associated with the trough yesterday.  Easy to diagnose in hindsight.  Much more difficult to anticipate in advance, mainly because such precipitation distributions are highly sensitive to many factors, including storm depth. Overall, the NAM comes out looking good again.  No change in my view of the NCAR ensemble, which I think is extremely valuable, but for the most part, it overdid it yesterday. We may see a few snow showers to...

Due to my travels in Japan, I haven't skied in the Wasatch since last year!  Last calendar year that is (31 December 2016), so I have virtually no idea what the skiing has been like the past several days, although I've heard reports that a refresh is needed. We'll get some snow today and tonight that should help.  Radar shows relatively light echoes covering much of northern Utah at 1559 UTC (0859 MST) this morning. This is consistent with the light snow falling on campus and along much of the Wasatch Front this morning.  Similarly, snowfall rates in the mountains have so far been light as well. I expect things to pick up in the mountains during the day today as the trough axis swings through.  Right now, this looks like a modest refresh, with 4–8 inches falling at upper elevations in the Cottonwoods through 5 AM tomorrow morning. One thing that surprised me looking over the models today is how bullish the NCAR ensemble is.  By 5 AM tomorrow (20/12Z o...

Salt Lake Valley residents awoke to a shallower but dirtier layer of pollution this morning In my previous post issued on Monday ( Why Deep Cold Pools Are "Good" ), I discussed how deep valley cold pools and pollution layers are actually "good" compared to shallow ones.  When the inversion (a layer in which temperature increases with height) is elevated, pollution is distributed through a deeper layer, resulting in lower pollution concentrations. Over the past two days, however, the inversion has lowered, tightening the noose on the Salt Lake Valley.  You can clearly see this in the soundings from Monday morning (top) and this morning (bottom).  In the Monday morning sounding, the inversion was about 1 km above the valley floor, and the atmospheric temperature profile allowed for mixing through that 1-km deep layer.  In contrast, this morning the inversion is based pretty much on the valley floor.   Source: SPC As a result, pollution concentr...

I arrived back in Salt Lake City yesterday afternoon to somewhat murky skies.  After 2 weeks in Japan, my first activity wasn't work related.  Instead, I simply lied on the couch, ate junk food, drank beer, and watched football like a good American.  It's good to be home! Today, however, I'm at the office and taking a closer look at those murky skies.  The sounding from this morning shows a very deep cold pool over the Salt Lake Valley, with a capping inversion based at around 775 mb, which is at an altitude of 2264 m (7428 feet). Consistent with the deep cold pool and more elevated inversion, the Cliff Cam at Snowbird shows smog and stratus extending ominously up Little Cottonwood Canyon. Source: Snowbird Although people often become alarmed about deep pollution (a.k.a. inversion) events, for residents at lower elevations along the valley floor, they typically feature lower PM2.5 concentrations than shallow events because pollution is distributed throug...

I'm now in Narita airport awaiting my flight to return to the states.  My travels from Myokokogen to Tokyo today provided an excellent example of the remarkable climate transition that exists across the Japanese island of Honshu. This was the scene last night when I went to bed.  Just like Alta, it doesn't need a reason to snow in Myokokogen.  It needs a reason to stop. Did it stop overnight?  Nada.  Another 50 cm (20 inches) at the lodge and in town and 70 cm (28 inches) on the upper mountain.  Crazy. My hat goes off to Michael and Tamami at the Myoko Mountain Lodge for going well beyond the call of duty to get me out of Dodge.  When I woke up at 6 AM, Michael was already out blowing out the walks and cars and Tamami was calling the railroads.  No service to the nearby station, so Michael drove me off the mountain and got me on the train.  Kudos as well to the remarkable Japanese snow removal systems for keeping the roads passable....

Do you ever wonder what it would be like if it started snowing and never stopped ? - Steve Casimiro, Editor, Powder Magazine, 1987-1998 Things are starting to get real here in Myoko Kogen.  It has been snowing nearly nonstop since I arrived 4 days ago and at least another 80 cm (30 inches) fell overnight.  Going for a tour was completely out of the question, so it was off to the Akakura Kanko ski area with the hope of finding something (anything) steep enough to make turns on.  The queue at the top chair first thing in the morning was the only one I encountered and much of the time we were there we were lectured by ski patrol that going OB was foolhardy and that one could die from any number of catastrophes (avalanche, immersion, etc.).   Was it deep?  Damn straight. Bottomless powder comes in many flavors.  The beauty of many storms in Utah is that they start off warm and produce some higher density snow to start, which means you have so...

Mother Nature is now bringing it to western Japan.  I'm now in Myokokogen, one of the snowiest locations in central Honsu and home to several (mostly not connected ski areas). Source: Myoko City Tourism Board From a snowfall perspective, the place is a winter wonderland and I've seen published, credible reports of an average annual snowall of 13 meters (511 inches), comparable to Alta.  Although I'm not sure what location and elevation that is for (snowfall increases from left to right and with altitude in the photo above, maximizing near Seki Onsen ski resort, which is closest to the Sea of Japan), it is clear this is a very snowy place. Yesterday I spent a few hours touring low angle terrain above the Ikenotaira Onsen ski area with Miles Peterson, a guide with Dancing Snow , a local outdoor adventure company.  Although the classic Japanese tree skiing is still quite brushy due to a below normal snowpack, we did pass through some beautiful beech forests with...