From the Olympic News Feed

When I was growing up and cross-country skiing in upstate New York, Bill Koch was a legendary figure as the only US male (and at the time only US skier ever) to win an Olympic medal in Nordic Skiing.  It's been 50 years since his 1976 silver, so it was great to see Ben Ogden win a medal in the Classic Spring and then for the US to win silver again in the Team Sprint.  On the same day, Mikaela Shiffrin, who really has nothing to prove, exorcised her Olympic demons too, resulting in an extremely satisfying page of headlines in this morning's Salt Lake Tribune.

Having sworn off social media, I've actually watched the replays of many races without knowing the winner.  Last night I had no idea of the US silver in the Team spring when I watched it at 7 PM, making it even more exciting.  

And of course there are the other great Olympic stories.  Breezy Johnson's gold.  I guess she is the new Julia Mancuso, coming up big in Olympics and World Championships (she's never won a World Cup race).  It reminded me of what I once heard Steve Nyman say (I'm paraphrasing here).  In the World Cup you race for points.  In the Olympics you race to win.  

Then there's the incredible comeback of Federica Brignone.  Two golds after a horrific leg fracture in March.  I'm pretty certain she is the oldest woman to win Olympic Alpine skiing gold too.  As an aside, I asked AI who the oldest woman alpine skier to win Olympic gold and it told me it was Mikaela Shiffrin.  

A good reminder that AI is authoritative BS, providing confident responses, often with the wrong answer.  

Jesse Diggins got her individual medal (bronze in the 10 km free).  I suspect this Olympics has not gone as well for her as she hoped, with a crash in the skiathlon apparently having some effects.  That said, Frida Karlsson would have been tough to beat in these games as her top end when she's in great form is remarkable.  Jesse still has a shot at the 50 km Mass Start Classic.  Classic isn't her best style, but I'm not going to put anything past her and if she were to pull it out, it would make a very long race much more exciting to watch.  

And congratulations to Johannes Klaebo on five golds, matching Eric Heiden's record (and he has a shot at a sixth on Saturday).  Dude can fly on skis, and he seems like a good guy, showboating as he crosses the line aside.  I'm actually old enough to remember Heiden's 1980 Olympic conquest.  In fact, my mom is currently flying a flag from the 1980 Olympics at her home in Florida.  This one actually flew at my school during the 1980 Olympics. 

A Bold Forecast

Going out on a limb here, but I predict tomorrow will be the greatest case of powder panic in the history of the Cottonwoods.  Let's see....

• No significant valley snow this season until today
• Few powder days this season
• No parking reservations required at Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, or Solitude
• It's a holiday week

Getting Great Data

After suffering through weeks of drought, we've been getting great data for the SNOWSCAPE2026 field campaign during the storms last week and this week.  

Today we're sampling the cold-frontal system as it is moving through northern Utah and across the northern Wasatch Range.  Below is a video from our causeway radar site during the frontal passage this morning.  Hopefully Blogger won't mangle it too much. 

Having radars on both the western (windward) and eastern (leeward) sides of the Wasatch allows us to examine how precipitation features are affected during transit over a narrow mountain barrier.  In particular, we have the Snowbasin area heavily sampled by ground instruments and now scanned by the radars.  As I'm writing this, we're tracking a strong cold-frontal band as it approaches the mountains (left-hand image below, Snowbasin indicated by SB).  This band just produced lightning in Layton.  With the radar on the causeway, we can observe it in detail as it approaches and moves up the windward slope of the Wasatch.  Then we can observed the front moving into the lee from Huntsville.  Right now the backside is seeing widespread precipitation.  

Enough for now.  Back to work. 

Storm Cycle Update

 Pretty good round of snow or should I say graupel overnight and this morning.  Accumulations in the mountains vary substantially and I'm not sure if Alta wiped their interval stake this morning or not as it looks like 4" on it, but the total snow depth is up 5 to 6 inches and the resort is reporting 8" as of 10 AM so I'll go with that.  

Gauge measured water total is about 1.2".  I'm hearing rumors that's high, but anyway you cut it, it appears to be a high-density graupelfest up there.  Sounds like a good day of skiing in my book.

Forecasts are still on for a colder storm tomorrow that will bring the Greatest Snow on Earth to both the mountains and the valleys.  Timing varies, with the HRRR bringing in a commuter special and the GFS a bit slower.  Strongly recommend that you check forecasts later today if you are commuting in the morning.  Quoting this morning's 5:23 AM issued Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS: 

"Locally higher snow rates will come with the front. Precise timing is lower confidence, with models ranging from roughly 5-11 a.m. for it to track through Salt Lake City. This will be capable of affecting valley travel Wednesday for some commutes, depending on timing."

I have more good news.  I am leaving for Austria on the 24th.  The models are already going for the Steenburgh effect to kick in, meaning snow when I'm out of town.  The Utah Snow Ensemble shows a break in a couple of days, but then things picking up again on the 24th.  

Coincidence?  I think not.  

Winter is Coming

I've been waiting all season to say that, but the models are trending and trending in a way that it may actually snow, not only in the mountains, but even, dare I say it, at low elevations. 

Let's break things down into pieces.  I'll use the Euro and hit some of the highlights.  Overnight tonight, a strong mid-level cold front pushes through northern Utah, bringing our first round of precipitation in the form of mountain snow and valley rain.  This front is the band of heavy precipitation extending from SW Wyoming through central Utah and Arizona in the Euro forecast below valid 0900 UTC (0200 MST) tonight.  

In the way of that front, moist, unstable southwesterly flow predominates late tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night with periods of mountain snow and snow levels near the valley floor, although official NWS forecasts are for less than an inch through Tuesday night at the lowest elevations of the Salt Lake Valley and a bit more on the benches.  

Wednesday looks like the best storm of the season for the valleys (something else I've wanted to say for a while, although we've had all of 0.1" at the airport so far!).  The Euro (and other models) has a cold front moving through Wednesday morning bringing snow to all elevations.  

I've been busy planning for our field campaign today so lack the time for a proper deep dive on snowfall amounts.  I encourage you to look monitor official forecasts and drive slowly on snow covered roads when they finally appear.  

Next Week Looks Active

This post is dedicated to friend and long-time Wasatch Weather Weenies reader Kevin Moore who passed away yesterday after a multiyear battle with pancreatic cancer.   Kevin was a devoted husband and father, avid biker and skier, and lover of life.  He set an example of how to live life to the fullest when facing the greatest of challenges and uncertainties.