Escape from Utah

In an effort to improve the snowfall situation in the Wasatch Range, I have left Utah for the rest of the cool season.  

I'm serving as a guest professor at the University of Innsbruck for their so-called summer semester, which actually runs from March to June.  We arrived here on Wednesday.  It's been mild and sunny here with high temperatures above 10°C (no °F here) in Innsbruck each day.  Today I skied with some friends at Stubai Glacier, which reaches over 3000 meters elevation, to escape the heat.  It was a spectacular day.  

Like Utah, Austria has had a largely crap snow season and the current warm spell isn't helping.  The snowpack on south aspects is pretty much non-existent below 1500 meters and in some areas much higher than that.  The snowpack is meager where it exists, even at the highest elevations.  Glacier-mounted lift towers today were on large domes of ice.  These are usually covered with white blankets (I'm not sure why they are missing currently) to reduce melt.   I was wondering if their height at least partially reflects the lack of seasonal snowfall at upper elevations.  

I'm teaching graduate course on cool-season precipitation processes and prediction starting on Monday and helping with a weather briefing course which enables me to learn more about Alpine and European meteorology.  

Hoping to provide updates from time to time and that in my absence the "Steenburgh Effect" proves productive for Wasatch powder skiing. 

Warm, Wet, and Juicy

It felt a good deal like spring yesterday with the sun now higher in the sky compared to its winter solstice minimum and mild temperatures from the valleys to the mountains.  Yesterday's high of 55 at the Salt Lake City airport was not exceptional, but combined with the brilliant sunshine, it was a beautiful day to be outside.  

We have one storm on tap for the coming week and it's looking like a warm, wet, and juicy one.  It is associated with an inland penetrating atmospheric river.  The ECMWF HRES forecast valid 0000 UTC 25 February (5 PM MST Tuesday) shows the atmospheric river (bottom right panel) over the Bay Area curving clockwise through northern Nevada and Utah.  Integrated vapor transport (IVT) values in our area are > 250 kg/m/s, which puts is in the low end of atmospheric river categories, although that's a fairly high value for the western interior.  

It's a relatively slowly evolving pattern. As can be seen above, the ECMWF puts our mountains in precip Tuesday afternoon and that continues overnight.  The forecast valid 1200 UTC 25 February (5 AM MST Wednesday) shows atmospheric river conditions persisting in mild westerly flow. 

Atmospheric rivers in northern Utah can be fickle.  Some are heavy precipitation producers.  Others do little.  This one does have something going for it and that's large-scale confluent flow, meaning that there are two air streams merging together over northern Utah, one with a more northern origin and the other with a more southern origin.  This often creates and environment of large-scale lift that helps to generate a larger-scale cloud and precipitation shield to get precipitation going.  

Unfortunately, this storms has something that we don't want and that's warmth.  HRES forecast 700-mb temperatures over the central Wasatch are around -1°C Tuesday afternoon through about 5 AM Wednesday, afterwhich they decrease slowly.  That's a recipe for high snow levels and low-to-mid elevation rain.  Some models are warmer than that.  The 12Z HRRR for example has a temperature of about +1°C at 700 mb at 0500 UTC 25 Feb (10 PM MST Tuesday).  That would mean rain above the base of Alta, possibly to mid mountain. 

Indeed the HRRR-derived Little Cottonwood forecast is really pumping up the warmth.  It has the wet-bulb zero above 9600 feet, roughly mid-mountain at Alta, from 2 PM MST Tuesday to 2 AM Wednesday.  The snow level is usually several hundred feet below that, but I would not be surprised if it briefly got to 9600 feet or higher Tuesday night if this forecast verifies.  

The 12Z HRRR is one of the warmer models, but even the 06Z RRFS ensemble has some members pushing the wet-bulb zero to 10000 feet or higher Tuesday night (bottom left panel).  Water equivalents in that ensemble vary from 1 to 2.25" for Alta-Collins, but one member has only 3" of snow, which tells you that at least one member producing rain or mixed rain-and snow at Alta-Collins.

So expect a wet, warm, and juicy storm to develope Tuesday afternoon and persist into Wednesday, although temperatures and snow levels will slowly decrease on Wednesday.  Snow levels could be quite high Tuesday night, probably getting above the base of Alta and maybe getting to 9600 feet or even high if the warmer model forecasts verify.  Hopefully the cooler forecasts will verify, but even those are fairly mild.  

From the Olympic News Feed

When I was growing up and cross-country skiing in upstate New York, Bill Koch was a legendary figure as the only US male (and at the time only US skier ever) to win an Olympic medal in Nordic Skiing.  It's been 50 years since his 1976 silver, so it was great to see Ben Ogden win a medal in the Classic Spring and then for the US to win silver again in the Team Sprint.  On the same day, Mikaela Shiffrin, who really has nothing to prove, exorcised her Olympic demons too, resulting in an extremely satisfying page of headlines in this morning's Salt Lake Tribune.

Having sworn off social media, I've actually watched the replays of many races without knowing the winner.  Last night I had no idea of the US silver in the Team spring when I watched it at 7 PM, making it even more exciting.  

And of course there are the other great Olympic stories.  Breezy Johnson's gold.  I guess she is the new Julia Mancuso, coming up big in Olympics and World Championships (she's never won a World Cup race).  It reminded me of what I once heard Steve Nyman say (I'm paraphrasing here).  In the World Cup you race for points.  In the Olympics you race to win.  

Then there's the incredible comeback of Federica Brignone.  Two golds after a horrific leg fracture in March.  I'm pretty certain she is the oldest woman to win Olympic Alpine skiing gold too.  As an aside, I asked AI who the oldest woman alpine skier to win Olympic gold and it told me it was Mikaela Shiffrin.  

A good reminder that AI is authoritative BS, providing confident responses, often with the wrong answer.  

Jesse Diggins got her individual medal (bronze in the 10 km free).  I suspect this Olympics has not gone as well for her as she hoped, with a crash in the skiathlon apparently having some effects.  That said, Frida Karlsson would have been tough to beat in these games as her top end when she's in great form is remarkable.  Jesse still has a shot at the 50 km Mass Start Classic.  Classic isn't her best style, but I'm not going to put anything past her and if she were to pull it out, it would make a very long race much more exciting to watch.  

And congratulations to Johannes Klaebo on five golds, matching Eric Heiden's record (and he has a shot at a sixth on Saturday).  Dude can fly on skis, and he seems like a good guy, showboating as he crosses the line aside.  I'm actually old enough to remember Heiden's 1980 Olympic conquest.  In fact, my mom is currently flying a flag from the 1980 Olympics at her home in Florida.  This one actually flew at my school during the 1980 Olympics. 

A Bold Forecast

Going out on a limb here, but I predict tomorrow will be the greatest case of powder panic in the history of the Cottonwoods.  Let's see....

• No significant valley snow this season until today
• Few powder days this season
• No parking reservations required at Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, or Solitude
• It's a holiday week

Getting Great Data

After suffering through weeks of drought, we've been getting great data for the SNOWSCAPE2026 field campaign during the storms last week and this week.  

Today we're sampling the cold-frontal system as it is moving through northern Utah and across the northern Wasatch Range.  Below is a video from our causeway radar site during the frontal passage this morning.  Hopefully Blogger won't mangle it too much. 

Having radars on both the western (windward) and eastern (leeward) sides of the Wasatch allows us to examine how precipitation features are affected during transit over a narrow mountain barrier.  In particular, we have the Snowbasin area heavily sampled by ground instruments and now scanned by the radars.  As I'm writing this, we're tracking a strong cold-frontal band as it approaches the mountains (left-hand image below, Snowbasin indicated by SB).  This band just produced lightning in Layton.  With the radar on the causeway, we can observe it in detail as it approaches and moves up the windward slope of the Wasatch.  Then we can observed the front moving into the lee from Huntsville.  Right now the backside is seeing widespread precipitation.  

Enough for now.  Back to work. 

Storm Cycle Update

 Pretty good round of snow or should I say graupel overnight and this morning.  Accumulations in the mountains vary substantially and I'm not sure if Alta wiped their interval stake this morning or not as it looks like 4" on it, but the total snow depth is up 5 to 6 inches and the resort is reporting 8" as of 10 AM so I'll go with that.  

Gauge measured water total is about 1.2".  I'm hearing rumors that's high, but anyway you cut it, it appears to be a high-density graupelfest up there.  Sounds like a good day of skiing in my book.

Forecasts are still on for a colder storm tomorrow that will bring the Greatest Snow on Earth to both the mountains and the valleys.  Timing varies, with the HRRR bringing in a commuter special and the GFS a bit slower.  Strongly recommend that you check forecasts later today if you are commuting in the morning.  Quoting this morning's 5:23 AM issued Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS: 

"Locally higher snow rates will come with the front. Precise timing is lower confidence, with models ranging from roughly 5-11 a.m. for it to track through Salt Lake City. This will be capable of affecting valley travel Wednesday for some commutes, depending on timing."

I have more good news.  I am leaving for Austria on the 24th.  The models are already going for the Steenburgh effect to kick in, meaning snow when I'm out of town.  The Utah Snow Ensemble shows a break in a couple of days, but then things picking up again on the 24th.  

Coincidence?  I think not.