Musings on AI and Higher Education

Classes start at the University of Utah this coming Monday, August 24.  Campus is getting busier and energy levels are rising.  The start of a new school year is coming!

I was on sabbatical last academic year and although I did teach for a full semester at the University of Innsbruck, it feels like higher ed has changed dramatically since the last time I taught at the U in spring 2025.  One reason for this is the rapid advancement of AI, including weather forecasting models and generative AI assistants like ChatGPT.

My approach to teaching has been one that has brought new tech into the classroom.  The weather analysis and forecasting classes I teach today use tools and techniques that did not exist when I started as a professor and in some cases even a couple of years ago.  

As we go into the new semester, I've been thinking a lot about how to utilize AI in the classroom but also how to ensure that students are using AI tools responsibly.  The lowest-hanging fruit is bringing AI forecast modeling systems, like the ECMWF AIFS or Google WeatherNext into my lectures and weather discussions and using them alongside traditional numerical weather prediction model forecasts.

ECMWF AIFS forecast.  Source: pivotalweather.com

I'm not sure yet if I'll have time to develop my own graphics (my preference since I can tailor things for the western US and Utah) or add these systems to products like the Utah Snow Ensemble, but we will at least be using graphics from other sites.  

I am more conflicted about generative AI and related tools that may have some potential to accelerate learning but can also be used in ways that prevent students from the hard work and deep thinking needed to develop the creativity and critical thinking skills.

Students need an advanced education that includes the foundational knowledge, expertise, judgement, and vision to extract maximum benefit from AI.  There are no shortcuts to the top. A scientist needs a well trained mind just as an athlete needs a well trained body.  

As an educator, I want to ensure that AI is a powerful assistant for learning and not a training shortcut that leads to cognitive atrophy.  If I can borrow from a recent article by Mya Poe and Dylan Dryer, our students should be charting the path of scientific discovery, not machines.  

Summer Skiing Is Dead

Following up on the post from August 8th (The Death of Summer Skiing), as reported over the weekend by weathertoski, the last operating ski area in the Alps, Passo Stelvio in Italy, closed on Saturday, August 15th.  There are no summer skiing options left in the Alps.  

They suggest this may be the first time there's no (lift served) summer skiing operations in the Alps.  It's likely that applies to the Northern Hemisphere.  Mt. Gassan (Japan) appears to have closed in early July.  Timberline on Mt. Hood appears to have closed on July 19.   I believe late operating resorts in Norway are also closed.  

2026.  The year that summer skiing died. 

The Afternoon Deluge

Monsoon thunderstorms developed over the Salt Lake Valley this afternoon and brought heavy rainfall to the northeast corner of the Salt Lake Valley, especially the University of Utah. 

The event started with the development of a cell over or just downstream of the Salt Lake International Airport.  This one moved off over North Salt Lake.  Shortly therafter, two cells formed just to the south of the track of the first cell and pounded the Avenues and Avenues Foothills.  

Then things got interesting as a cell exploded west of Murray and moved northeastward to the University of Utah.  This was the beginning of a series of training storms that pounded the area around the U before things settled down.  The full sequence is below.  I'm hoping the video will upload properly as I'm working with some limitations currently.  

Storm total Radar precipitation estimates through 2200 UTC (1600 MDT), which does not quite capture the entire storm period so expect these to go up a bit show more than an inch of rain in a SW to NE oriented band from just north of Taylorsville to the foothills above the University of Utah.  

Source: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

Maximum accumulations of > 2" were centered on Dry Creek Canyon and Mt. Van Cott, pretty much over and just north of the burn scar above the U hospital.  

Source: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

Some transport of falling rain can occur below beam elevation, so exactly where this rain fell on very small scales is hard to say, but this does appear to have been a significant stress test for flash flooding in the burn scar area.  

As I type this, I don't have access to estimates through the end of the storm or information on the burn scar.  Hopefully it held up as that would be a significant victory.  

El Niño Is a Lock But Snow for Wasatch Less Certain

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion today and El Niño is looking like a lock for this winter.  They give a 90% chance of a very strong El Nino during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.  

By most definitions, a strong El Niño is already in place over the Tropical Pacific Ocean.  Sea surface temperatures more than 1°C above average already extend westward along the equator to nearly 180° with areas more than 3°C above average near the coast of South America.  Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures also extend poleward to the west of North and South America.  

ENSO strength probabilities from CPC are near or above 90% for September-November through November to January.   The odds of a strong event decline later in the winter, although the odds of El Niño conditions persisting remain high.  

El Niño is a tropical climate phenomenon with impacts even in the mid and high latitudes as it affects jet stream and storm track patterns.  During Northern Hemisphere winter (December – February) over North America, El Niño can be associated with anomalous warmth of Alaska, western Canada, and the northwest United States and wetter conditions in the southern US and northern Mexico.  Linkages to the mid and high latitudes are weaker in summer.  

Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/global-impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a

For the Wasatch, the relationship between El Niño and snowfall is relatively weak.  It is popular for people to look at past events for analogs, but there isn't a true analog to this event and strong events are relatively rare during the historical data period, so the sample size is small.  Additionally, El Niño is an important factor, but there are other phenomenon that can influence the weather in any given winter, including the possibility that what happened in a previous strong El Niño year more strongly reflects randomness than a real signal.  The CPC outlook (now almost a month old so maybe there will be an update) still puts northern Utah in the "equal chances" category for December to February precipitation, meaning they don't consider there to be better skill than chance for what will happen this winter in our neck of the woods. 

Source: CPC

They are, however, giving better odds for above average temperatures, although that's not all that surprising given recent trends. 

Source: CPC

My view is that the usefulness and reliability of these seasonal outlooks for anticipating what the ski season will be like is limited in the Wasatch.  In addition to the limited correlation in our part of the world, how the snow comes and how the temperatures fluctuate matter.  A warm winter can yield a good snow year at low elevations if the storm characteristics are right.  A year with above average snowfall due to big snows in November and December is very different from one with big snows in March and April.  

As such, I'm comfortable saying that I can't confidently predict how this coming season is going to play out in the Wasatch.  It's probably better to spend your time getting in shape for ski season than worrying about what the season will bring.  

Some Relief is Coming

August is off to a blistering start.  Seven out of ten days to start the month with high temperatures above 100. Six days with low temperatures 70 or above including an 81 on August 9.  The average temperature for the first 10 days of August at the Salt Lake City International Airport was 85.2°F, the second highest on record behind only 2024 (86.3°F).

Relief is coming, however, due to a subtle change in the large-scale pattern.  The upper-level ridge that has been over us the past few days is weakening and sliding eastward slowly while troughing is developing along the Pacific Coast.  The GFS forecast for 0000 UTC 14 August (1800 MDT Thursday) shows the trough along the Pacific Coast (red dashed line) with a plume of elevated integrated vapor transport streaming up the lower Colorado River Valley and into Utah (red arrow).  A weak trough is also evident at 700 mb over central Nevada and far northwest Utah.  

The net impact of these changes will be a decline in temperature, increase in relative humidity, and increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.  These trends begin today when we should fall short of 100 for the first time in five days, and continue through the end of the work week with each day a little cooler with increasing odds of precipitation through Thursday. 

NWS Forecast for Salt Lake City downloaded 8:35 AM MDT Thursday 11 Aug 2026

The low of 59 forecast for Thursday night and the high of 83 forecast for Friday would be the lowest temperatures we've seen since June 30th when the minimum was 54 and the maximum was 82.  

Let's hope it verifies and that we see beneficial rains for the firefighting efforts.  

The Death of Summer Skiing

Summer skiing used to be a thing in the climate system of the 20th century.  In North America, there used to be skiing on the Palmer Snowfield of Mt. Hood deep into summer.  When I lived in Seattle, we skied there on Labor Day weekend in early September calling it the "Opening Day of Ski Season" since the next winter was coming.  There also used to be skiing deep into July on the Horstman Glacier at Blackcomb in Whistler.  

In the Alps, summer skiing became a thing in the 1970s and by 1985 there were 32 operating glacier skiing resorts.  These didn't necessarily operate all summer, but they did offer warm-season skiing.  As recently as a few years ago there were resorts that operated year round or very late in the summer [Hintertux (Austria), Zermatt (Switzerland), Saas Fee (Switzerland), Passo Stelvio (Italy)] or into portions of July and/or August [Kitzsteinhorn (Austria), Mölltal (Austria), Les 2 Alpes (France), Tignes (France), Val d'Isere (France) and Cervina (Italy)].

But things have changed.  The 2020s have been rough for summer skiing and 2026 has been awful: 

• There is no longer summer skiing on the Horstman Glacier as Blackcomb pulled the plug on that a couple of years ago.
• Timberline closed July 19 due to low snowpack.
• Hintertux closed on July 26.
• Zermatt suspended summer skiing due to "persistently high temperatures, the lack of a night-time cool-down, repeated thunderstorms" on July 31.  
• Saas Fee will suspend summer skiing on 10 August.

It appears that the only ski area that could be operating this year in the Northern Hemisphere after 10 August is Passo Stelvio in Italy.  I've never skied there, but their web cam image from Friday August 7th didn't pique my interest with a near-complete loss of seasonal snow and little in sight but glacier ice and grit.

Although economics and demand can affect resort operations, in recent years the changing climate has increasingly resulted in poor snow conditions, heat waves, high-altitude rainfall, and other factors that have reduced glacial coverage, the persistence of seasonal snowfall, and summer skiing conditions.  

Although there is variability from year to year, the long-term trend is not summer skiing's friend.