More Weather and Climate Concerns for the 2034 Games

An article published yesterday in the Salt Lake Tribune discusses eight ways proposed by professors at Utah State to improve wintertime pollution for the 2034 Olympic Winter Games.  Fraser Bullock who is leading the Utah 2034 effort is quoted as saying a few years ago that: 

"Air scared the heck out of me. It scares the heck out of me because we got so lucky last time because we had an inversion the day before [the 2002 Olympic Winter Games].  And the morning of Opening Ceremonies, in comes a storm, blows it all up [and] we had really great weather."

I was involved in weather support for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games and remember the pre-Olympic inversion well.  Prior to the Olympics, there are a lot of press from all over the world looking for stories to write.  I remember participating in a press conference in which speakers would get up, discuss something about the Olympics, and then answer press questions.  I had discuss Olympic Weather and somehow got slotted in after then Governor Mike Leavitt and the Secretary of the Department of the Interior Gale Norton.  It was one of those "what am I doing here" moments.  

Instead of talking about the Greatest Snow on Earth though, I had to answer a lot of questions about inversions and air pollution because the air quality in Salt Lake was terrible.  As an example, I was able to locate an article, written by AP reporter Rich Vosepka, in which I was quoted from the news conference:

"Inversions are created during the winter because the sun isn't high enough in the sky to chase cold air out of mountain valleys," said Jim Steenburgh, a meteorology professor at the University of Utah. "Air higher up gets warmer, and smoggy gunk stays trapped in the valley air. It takes strong wind or a storm to dispel the haze."

The title of the article was "Storm Should Clear Olympic Smog" and indeed our forecast team had predicted that to happen.  Larry Dunn from the National Weather Service was also quoted in the article as saying:

 "Yes, it's going to snow.  We're revealing the Wasatch Mountains.  We're going to break the inversion." 

So, that was the first Olympic weather miracle (there were others) and the first important Olympic forecast success.

Weather and climate affect many aspects of Olympic logistics, safety, and competition.  The concerns are many from lack of snow, too much snow, disruptions of transportation, competition delays, spectator exposure to hazardous weather, etc.  The list is very long and involves things you might not think about.  What happens when a thunderstorm pops up at a temporary outdoor venue with 30,000 spectators?  When will the moderate winds that seem benign but are a safety concern for ski jumping die down so we can start the competition?  How much snow will we need to remove from the women's downhill course tomorrow?  What is the avalanche risk outside the perimeter of Snowbasin for security teams?  

To highlight the potential Olympic weather impacts prior to the Games, John Horel of the University of Utah and Bill Alder of the National Weather Service put together a list of high impact weather events that previously occurred over northern Utah during the Olympic period.  We used to sample from it to raise weather awareness for Olympic planners and operators.  Here's a snippet of three seasons:

1996

• Feb 9. High pollution levels along Wasatch Front
• Feb 11. Record maximum temperatures in the Wasatch Mountains. Alta 57°F 

1995

• Feb 11-12. Winter storm in northern part of state. 1 backcountry skier killed in Big Cottonwood Canyon. 2-3 feet of snow ski resorts
• Feb 13-14. Major winter storm. Thunderstorms during morning commute. Winds at ski resorts to 120 mph. Hundreds of auto accidents. 1-2 feet snow at ski resorts
• Feb 19-24. Warm spell with new daily high temperature records. Park City 56°F on Feb 24. February warmest on record at Salt Lake City airport 

1994

• Feb 6-8. Major storm; 2-3 feet snow at ski resorts. Skier killed near Alta.
• Feb 10-11. Severe weather with lightning and squall line. Power out in Cache Valley. Park City schools closed. Avalanche near Solitude. 2-3 feet snow at ski resorts.
• Feb 17-19. Rain followed by snow in valleys; heavy snow in mountains. Roads flooded in Cache Valley. Slick roads in passes and Park City area. 68 mph gust in Kearns Feb 22. Snow storm during commute; over 100 accidents. Runways closed for periods of time at Salt Lake Airport. High winds and drifting snow. 10 inches snow in valley to several feet in mountains 

The internal list we had covered many more years, but as I reviewed it this week I realized that it was missing a few things that might be a concern for 2034.

First, the risk of poor snow conditions due to warmth, drought, or both is greater today than it was in 2002.  Back in 2002, I was quite confident that natural or artificial snow cover at the venues was not going to be a problem.  I am still somewhat confident that with investments in snowmaking and storage we can get the job done in 2034, but I still have some concerns.  Even with snow coverage along trails, the look of the venue (a white ribbon of death is not a good look) and the quality of the snow (soft snow is generally not desirable and in some cases a safety concern) are important.  The Olympics in February have more insurance against these issues, but the Paralympics are scheduled for March 10 to 19.  I used to think Soldier Hollow was the main concern, but last season was an eyeopener for other venues.  Snowbasin closed on March 22.  

Second, the threats posted by wildfire and wildfire smoke are increasing.  This year we have already seen almost a half million acres burned this year, including almost 300,000 acres of forests and woodlands.  Eagle Point ski area was severely damaged by the Cottonwood Fire and will not open this coming winter.  All of the outdoor venues currently proposed for Utah 2034 are classified with high or very high wildfire hazard potential (orange and red below).  The potential for wildfire damage at an Olympic venue prior to the games is very real.  

Source: https://wrap.wildfirerisk.utah.gov/Map/Public/

During winter, wildfire risk is low in northern Utah, but not zero, especially at lower elevations in March after a dry winter. Of highest concern might be a grass and brush wildfire in bench and valley areas during strong southerly flow, which is typically drier and warmer, or severe downslope (i.e., canyon) winds.  

There is also the possibility of elevated PM2.5 due to transport of smoke from wildfires elsewhere.  

Third, dust storms are a possibility. I don't recall being aware of this possiblity in 2002 and they weren't in our list of high-impact weather events, but they could have been.  There certainly were dust storms in northern Utah then, but monitoring isn't as good as today and perhaps awareness was lower.  Climatologically dust storms become more frequent in March and we have seen recent events, even in the heart of winter, due to emissions from the exposed Great Salt Lake bed.  

Dust plume from the exposed Great Salt Lake Bed extending down the Salt Lake Valley January 20, 2025

The primary impacts of such events are poor air quality, degraded visibility, and deposition on snow.  

The list above is not a forecast.  It is simply a summary of some of the hazardous or problematic climate and weather phenomena that could affect the Olympic and Paralympic Games.  In 2034, much will depend on the weather prior to and during the Games.  In 2002, the weather turned out to be "perfect" or more accurately, about as good as it could be, as glorified by Pat Bagley in the Salt Lake Tribune.  

Perhaps that will be the case in 2034, but what Marshall Shepherd likes to say about hurricane preparedness applies well to Olympic weather planning.  "Hope or waiting and seeing is no longer a valid risk mitigation strategy."  

Escaping Smoke is Hard

During winter, the Salt Lake Valley often sees pollution episodes with elevated particulate matter due to the presence of low-elevation cold pools that persist due to the limited solar heating.  This enables particulate matter that forms from the emissions from automobiles, industry, home heating, and other sources build up within the cold pools, resulting in poor air quality.  This poor air quality is reflected in elevated levels of particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less, or PM2.5.  Such events are known colloquially as inversions.

Because the PM2.5 is typically trapped in the cold pool, one can usually find clean air by moving to higher elevations.  The depth of the pollution varies from event to event and sometimes from hour to hour as the cold pool sloshes around in the valley.  At times, the benches may be in the clear air.  At other times, elevated PM2.5 can extend higher.  

An example, from December 15, 2025, is shown below.  Taken from about 6000 feet in the Avenues foothills, one can very clearly see the layer of pollution within the valley, but clear air at upper elevations.  

PM2.5 associated with wildfire smoke in the summer is more complicated for a number of reasons.  First, the heat and intense vertical motions associated with wildfires can inject wildfire smoke anywhere from the surface to more than 15 km.  Because the wind often varies in strength and direction with height, the transport of that wildfire smoke can also vary in direction.  As an example, note how smoke from the Grasshopper Fire in northern Oregon spread in two different directions yesterday morning. 

Source: College of DuPage

As a result, smoke can be found even at the highest elevations and PM2.5 concentrations do not necessarily decrease with height.  Sometimes they can even increase with height.  

I had planned to hike up Snowbird this morning, but thought this might not be a good idea after looking out the window and taking a look at the PM2.5 estimates from Purple Air.  Unlike in winter, elevated PM2.5 wasn't confined to the Salt Lake Valley.  One could find values > 35 ug/m3 (i.e., unhealthy for sensitive groups) even at some locations in the Snyderville Basin.  Although there are fewer upper-elevation sits, at 8:57 AM MDT the highest PM2.5 was actually near the mouth of Little Cottonwood (53-68 ug/m3), Red Pine Lodge at Canyons (83 ug/m3), and Silverfork in Big Cottonwood Canyon (61 ug/m3).   

Source: Purple Air

It's hard to say if the top of the tram would have been above the smoke. The 9 AM webcam suggested it was close, but smoke clearly enveloped the terrain to high elevations.   

Source Snowbird

I ended up going for a less strenuous walk in the Avenues foothills.  Although the PM was still elevated, my back likes having the kinks worked out. Visually inferring PM2.5 concentrations can be tricky for a number of reasons, but the view toward the Oquirrhs seemed to confirm that this morning concentrations may have been higher above the valley floor as one could see the base of the Oquirrhs (red arrow) but not the mid or upper elevations (blue arrow).  This doesn't mean the valley floor had low PM2.5 values, but just that they appeared to be lower than at mid elevations.  

The National Weather Service has a modeling system to predict wildfire emissions and smoke transport and concentrations known as HRRR smoke. Its analysis for 1300 UTC (0700 MDT) this morning actually showed higher concentrations in upper elevation areas (e.g., Stansbury, Oquirrh, and Wasatch Ranges) compared to the intervening valleys. Although concentrations were lower than observed, it at least had the right idea. 

The HRRR smoke forecasts suggests perhaps some improvement later today and tonight.  We will see if that pans out.  Smoke forecasts are tricky.  

Note that the situation this morning with lower PM2.5 in the valley cannot be generalized to all wildfire situations.  There are times when PM2.5 concentrations from smoke can be higher at lower elevations.  Escaping wildfire smoke requires more investigation (and maybe a bit of luck).  The HRRR smoke forecast can be helpful.  I like to access them at https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi. Select "HRRR-CONUS" as the dataset, an appropriate runtime (those starting at 0, 6, 12, or 18Z will extend out 48 hours whereas the other go to 18 hours but are more recent), and then "surface smoke" from the surface drop down menu at top. 

Cooler, Smoky Air

It felt almost pleasant this morning as the the low temperature was 70 or possibly 69 at the Salt Lake City Airport.  70 is actually the average low at the airport, which just goes to show how insane summer has become around here that it feels cool and refreshing when we finally have an average low.  Average in this case is based on 1991-2020, so if we went back further, we're probably still running above the 20th century average.  

Countering the coolness was the smoke, which thickened overnight.  PM2.5 concentrations at Hawthorne Elementary climbed substantially after midnight and are now above 40 ug/m3, in the unhealthy for sensitive groups category.  

Source: MesoWest

Yesterday's MODIS imagery shows several major sources of smoke in the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest including fires on the eastern slopes of the Cascades and in northeast Washington that exploded over the weekend, sadly causing serious losses of homes and structures in Spokane.  There are also fires in Oregon and southwest Idaho that are major smoke producers, as well as the Widemouth Fire in central Utah.  

Given the weak trough that came through last night, which resulted in a shift of the flow to northwesterly, the source of the smoke in the Salt Lake Valley today is not the Widemouth Fire but sources to the northwest and west.  

Sadly there's still a lot of summer 2026 to go.

Preparing for Wildfire

Fire is on the minds of many of us who live in Utah and the western United States.  Conditions favorable for explosive wildfire spread are increasing in severity and frequency.   More and more I realize that my "instincts" about wildfire risk in my region, neighborhood, and home probably do not match reality. 

I encourage everyone to take a look at an article written by Tom Cova, a Professor in the University of Utah's School of Environment, Society, and Sustainability, that was published in today's Salt Lake Tribune.   

The article emphasizes the importance of being ready to evacuate given the fact that "fast-moving fires compress every step of an evacuation."  As Eisenhower said, "Plans are nothing, planning is everything."  This is especially true during extreme wildfire spread.  

Natural Air Conditioning

Residents of the northern Wasatch Front and northern Salt Lake Valley were treated to some natural air conditioning thanks to a complex of thunderstorms that moved across the area yesterday evening.  

Source: ral.ucar.edu

Some of the thunderstorms were severe and produced wind gusts of 60 mph in Sugarhouse, 64 mph in Tremonton, and 72 mph at the I215/I80 exchange.  

There was also beneficial rain and cooling. Temperatures at the Salt Lake City International Airport dropped to 67°F, the lowest temperature observed there since July 4, and I was able to get temperatures in my house below 70°F for the first time since we returned from Austria.  

We were also treated to a beautiful double rainbow as the storm moved off to the east.  

Unfortunately, as has been forecast for a few days, the heat is expected to return in spades by the weekend, with the National Weather Service issuing an Extreme Heat Watch for SaturdayAfternoon through Sunday Evening with temperatures up to 105°F and lows in the low to mid 70s for the Salt Lake Valley and other lowland areas of northern Utah.  

The cool was brief but fun while it lasted. 

All-Time Record Tied

Yesterday (Monday) morning's minimum temperature at the Salt Lake City Airport was an incredibly warm 85°F.  Daily records though are based on the minimum and maximum temperatures over the period from midnight to midnight local standard time and last night temperatures dropped to 82°F by midnight local standard time (1 AM MDT), so that stands as the minimum temperature for the day. 

Still 82°F ties for the highest minimum temperature at the Salt Lake City International Airport.  Other days that only cooled to 82°F are 23 July 2023 and 13 July 2021.  

The top 20 highest minimum temperatures in the Salt Lake City area are below.  17 of them are in the 2000s, which likely reflects multiple factors including climate change, urban growth, and local conditions at the observing sites.

Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

All occurred though between July 3rd and 31st.  More evidence of the misery of July.