Wasatch Weather Weenies

CPC released their latest seasonal outlooks yesterday.  These are based on overlapping 3-month periods.  For November to January and December to February, all or nearly all of Utah is in "equal chances" for precipitation, which means there is no significant shift in the odds for below normal, near normal, or above normal compared to climatology.   Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/ In other words, that period could go any way.  There's no useful skill.   Later in the winter, during January to March and February to April, most of Utah is in the first level of "above normal" or, in the case of southern Utah, especially later in the winter, in the second level.  For southern Utah, this means there is an increase in the odds of above normal precipitation to 40-50%.  For northern Utah, that shift is much smaller and perhaps to around 35% or so for the Wasatch Range.   Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa....

This is not a comprehensive sample, but it appears that all of the persistent snow patches that linger deep into summer and fall that I can typically spy from the top of Snowbird are gone.   I hiked up the bird this morning and it was about as clear as it gets when I arrived on the summit.  I couldn't spy a single patch of snow below the American Fork Twins (this has been the case for at least a couple of weeks) or in upper Hogum Fork where snow tends to linger.   Thus it appears that this summer we have had a full and complete reset of the central Wasatch snowpack, although perhaps one of you out there can tell us that there is a patch lingering somewhere.  Central Wasatch does not include Mt. Timpanogos where it is more likely that something remains around the Timpanogos Snowfield and rock glacier.   Snowbird though is preparing to do something about this as I noticed they are beginning to deploy their snowguns.   Meanwhile, Ski Utah i...

Meteorological summer (June, July, and August) is now in the books and as usual it is great to have it in the rear view mirror.   Summer was a scorcher by long-term standards at the Salt Lake City International Airport.  The average temperature was 80.2°F, the 7th highest all time (the record is 81.4°F set in 2022).  A look the long term trends in summer temperatures shows we are no-longer operating in the climate that prevailed during the 20th century.  The 10 hottest summers on record were all in the 21st century when the trend is clearly upward.   Mean Average Temperature June-August at the Salt Lake City International Airport.  Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/. We also set an all time maximum temperature record of 109°F on July 12th, tied the all time high minimum temperature record of 82°F on July 27 (set previously in 2021 and 2023), and saw 20 days with a maximum temperature of 100°F or higher (the record for summer is 27 in 2022 a...

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion today and El Niño is looking like a lock for this winter.  They give a 90% chance of a very strong El Nino during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.   By most definitions, a strong El Niño is already in place over the Tropical Pacific Ocean.  Sea surface temperatures more than 1°C above average already extend westward along the equator to nearly 180° with areas more than 3°C above average near the coast of South America.  Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures also extend poleward to the west of North and South America.   ENSO strength probabilities from CPC are near or above 90% for September-November through November to January.   The odds of a strong event decline later in the winter, although the odds of El Niño conditions persisting remain high.   El Niño is a tropical climate phenomen...

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their June El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) discussion today (June 11) and it's almost certain to send some people into a tizzy, although those of us in Utah should be cautious about what to expect this coming winter.   Before diving in, let's first talk about what ENSO and El Niño are.  ENSO is a natural cycle in atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Pacific characterized by a two to seven year cycle between warm phases (El Niño) in which the easterly trade winds weaken and the central and/or eastern tropical Pacific becomes anomalously warm and cold phases (La Niña) in which the easterly trade winds strengthen and the central and/or eastern tropical Pacific becomes anomalously cold.   Various indices exist to illustrate the phase (and strength) of ENSO.  None of these is perfect since you are boiling down a complex ocean and atmosphere system to a single number.  I tend to favor the multivar...

The latest snow observations show very clear evidence of a "warm" snow drought, one in which the snowpack has been strongly affected by abnormally warm temperatures, resulting in a majority of precipitation falling as rain and periods of snowmelt or loss at low to mid elevations.   Evidence of this warm snow drought is especially clear if one looks at the yesterday's percentage of median 1991–2020 snowpack water equivalent at SNOTEL stations as a function of elevation.  As shown in the plot below, stations below 7600 feet are at 30-49% of median and, as indicated by the red bars, are all at all time minimums for their periods of records (which vary in length but extend back at least 27 years).   Source: NRCS In contrast, the percentage of median at higher elevation stations is higher and anywhere from 69–111%.  Yes, incredibly, both the Snowbird and Brighton SNOTELs are now sitting above median.  It's good to be at high altitude in the upper Cottonwood...

Happy New Years from the Wasatch Weather Weenies. 2025 is now in the rearview and I'm not sad to see it go.  It was a tough year for science, higher eduction, the climate system, and at least for the start of the 2025/26 ski season, snow. Let's begin with the Murderer's Row of climate statistics for Salt Lake City. First, 2025 was the warmest year on record (since 1875) with an averge temperature of 57.9°F. The last 3 months of the year and the first 3 months of the 2026 water year (Oct-Dec) were also the warmest on record, with an average temperature of 48.9°F. And of course December was the warmest on record with an average temperature of 43.7°F. Shifting gears to the mountains and focusing on the past three month, water-year-to-date precipitation (water equivalent) is actually not all that bad.  Many stations are within 90 to 109% of median (green) and those that are lower than that are withing 90 to 89% of median.   As shown for Snowbird, a big contributor was th...

November is in the books and except for the last day we can be glad it is in the rearview mirror.  The last day did bring a bit of snow to the Salt Lake Valley, resulting in a beautiful start to the morning today.  Avenues Twin Peaks from University of Utah Campus 1 Dec 2025 That said, it was a bad month for skiing due to warmth and lack of snow.  At the Salt Lake City International Airport, this November was the warmest on record.   Records in the mountains are spottier.  At Alta, the Average temperature was 37.5°F, which is the 2nd highest on record, but observations there are much spottier and I don't put much faith in that number.  The warmest November on record there (1949) has 9 missing days.  It's safe to say it was warm, but definitive statements are not possible with the historical record at mountain sites due to limited data.  So we limp into December.  The next storm system comes on Tuesday night.  It's another system dro...

Delays in starting dates for ski areas are in the news.  Brianhead was scheduled to open on November 7 and has pushed their starting date back to November 21.  Solitude was scheduled to open on on Friday (Nov 14), but has pushed it's starting date back to next Wednesday (see t his Trib article ).   In my view, this is much ado about nothing.  November is a fickle month.  Sometimes resorts can open, even as early as late October with natural snow as Brighton did in October 2004.  Sometimes we get a cold spell that enables sufficient snowmaking to get some terrain open with limited natural snow.  And sometimes we get a nothing burger.  We're getting the latter this year.  If you get a warm, dry stretch in February, you get a suntan while doing groomer laps.  When one happens in November, you get a delay to the start of the ski season.   It is true that temperatures so far this November have been warm, with an an average for ...

After July, November is probably my least favorite months due to its "tweener" status between seasons.  However, if we can't have snow, the start to this November is a pretty good one with spectacular fall weather.  One of the nice things about northern Utah is that you can find fall colors somewhere from late September to early November.  The mountain aspens may now be leaf free, but the valley and foothills still have some great color.   The bucks have also returned to lower elevations.  I had a brief conversation with this trophy on Sunday.  I gave him a wide berth.  

More thunder and rain last night.  Observations from the Salt Lake City International Airport indicate another 0.68" in the gauge, all if it falling yesterday evening and overnight.  If my math is right, that brings the monthly total up to 4.16", topping the previous record for the month of 3.91".  Really, it wasn't even a fair fight.  It's only October 14! With the October record easily dispatched, I thought we might aim higher.  First let's have a look at the records for each calendar month: January 1918: 3.89"  February 1998: 4.89"  March 1891: 4.66"  April 1944: 4.90" May 1908: 5.76" June 1998: 3.84" July 1982: 2.57" August 1968: 3.66" September 1982: 7.04" (!!!) October 2025: 4.16" and counting November 1875: 5.81"  December 1983 and 1889: 4.37" And then additional months at or above 4": March 1876: 4.00" April 1974: 4.57" April 1986: 4.55" April 1984: 4.43" April 1886: ...

Silly season is upon us once again with all sorts of prognostications and guesswork about how much snow will fall this winter.  I call this silly season because the amount of skill in seasonal snowfall forecasts is pretty low in general and largely non-existent in northern Utah.  At best, in some regions of the US, there may be a slight loading of the dice.  My advice is to not worry about it and just plan on skiing it if it's white. That said, here at the Wasatch Weather Weenies we know our readers crave reliable, actionable information.  Therefore, this year's Official Wasatch Weather Weenies Ski Season Outlook focuses on the central Wasatch.  Forget about broad-brush outlooks, let's get right into the details.  After considerable research and careful deliberation, we are calling for upper Little Cottonwood to get the most snow, upper Big Cottonwood to get a bit less that that, and the Wasatch Back to get even less than the Cottonwoods.  Additionally...

As we enter the climatological hottest part of the year, it seems like this July hasn't been as awful as those in recent memory. Indeed, looking at the observations from the Salt Lake Airport, the first 3 weeks of the month have come in as cooler (based on average temperature) than the previous four years.   Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ So, perhaps not too bad by recent standards.   However, things look different with a long-range view. As evident in the time series above, this July 1-21 still rates as the 11th warmest on record, ahead of any similar period during the 20th century.   And if you are wondering if that is unique the the airport, it isn't.  The July 1-21 mean temperature at the Bountiful Bench site, with continuous records back to 1975, are also the 11th warmest on record, ahead of all 20th century years for which data is available.   Insert your complaints in the comments below...

It's pretty slow in the weather department these days.  As is often the case in July, the storm track is well to the north and the GFS forecast for the next 10 days (below) shows just some gasps monsoon moisture to give us some afternoon clouds and maybe some showers or t-storms from time to time.   Perhaps one of those monsoon surgest can be a bit more potent.  There's one near the end of the forecast period that runs through western Colorado and Eastern Utah.  Maybe it will pay a visit.  That said, this looks about as July-like as July gets.  A colleague commented that it seems like it has been pretty dry.  Since mid May , there have been four days with measurable rain at the Salt Lake Airport: May 15 (0.21"), May 18 (0.73"), June 22 (0.16"), and July 4 (0.16").  If we were to make it to July 20 without any more precipitation, the 2-month period from May 20 to July 20 would be the 8th driest on record (the lowest such period for precip is 0...

Yesterday's high at the Salt Lake City International Airport was 90.  The NWS forecast for today is also 90 and every day through next Sunday has forecast highs in the 90s. Source: NWS.  Downloaded 0802 MDT 9 June 2025. These are July-like highs, although the nighttime mins in the 60s may make things a bit more tolerable. That said, I'm not a fan of long stretches of July-like weather in June.  It often makes summer unbearably long.  Let's hope the latter half of the month is cooler.

It's that time of year when I wish we could save some of the snow from this season for next season.  There's a dense snowpack at upper elevations and wouldn't it be great if we could save just some of it for next year. Some resorts in Europe have been doing that, piling up snow and covering it with white, insulated blankets or sawdust to save it until next season.  Levi in Finland is perhaps best known for doing this (see  https://www.wired.com/story/ski-resorts-are-stockpiling-snow-to-get-through-warm-winters/ ).  Now Sun Peaks Resort has become the first resort in Canada to do it. Per the video above, they invested $170,000 (presumably CDN) for geotextile blankets to preserve snow for next season to use it in late fall and early winter.   I don't know enough about resort economics, snowmaking costs, or snow energy balance to evaluate whether or not this would work here, but I'm intrigued.  Beyond costs, one advantage of this approach is that the pres...

In a post last week I commented that it had been a dry April so far.  We got a bit of rain with the trough I discussed in that post but for the most part this April has not only been dry but quiet.  April is sometimes a month with strong cold fronts and big temperature swings.  My view is that this one has been rather ho-hum without a lot of fireworks. Temperature swings have been modest and rainfall somewhat scant. Rainfall through yesterday for the month at the Salt Lake City International Airport was only 0.44 inches.  Data from the National Weather Service shows that much of Utah is below average for precipitation over the past 30 days. A weak system moving through will bring some clouds and a chance of showers to northern Utah over the through Thursday, but accumulations look to be unimpressive.  There is a deeper trough approaching for Sunday and Monday.  Keep your fingers crossed it delivers some rain as we could use it.  

The work week has proven spectacular with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures.  "Anything season" is here, meaning that you can do pretty much any type of recreation you desire, sometimes on the same day.  The lower-elevation trails have dried out now in many areas and are quite passable for hikers and bikers. Meanwhile, we still have a deep snowpack at upper elevations.   Today's sunrise from the Avenues foothills. We will, however, be transitioning from the dry spring pattern we've experienced the last few days to a pattern that will bring the occasional mild spring storm system to northern Utah.  This transition won't necessarily be abrupt as a couple of weak systems move through Friday and Saturday.  After that, there's a series of troughs that move through.  It's not easy for me to summarize my expectations for the timing and strength of these storms as there's a good deal of variability in the Utah snow ensemble.  Just look at the sprea...

Meteorological winter, which includes December, January, and February, ended yesterday.  In the Salt Lake Valley, it wasn't much of a winter.  The average temperature at the Salt Lake City International Airport was about 36.4°F, making it about the 7th warmest on record*.  The asterisk is because there appear to be two days missing from the records I can access, so those numbers could change slightly.   Snowfall was scant with only 10.4".  A day is missing for the snowfall records too, although I believe the total is probably right (the missing day was likely snow free).  This is the third lowest on record behind 2014/15 (6.0") and 1962/63 (8.8").   Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ The SNOTEL data in the central Wasatch has been a bit squirrelly this year, but for end of meteorological winter snowpack, most sites are a bit below average including Snowbird (90%), Brighton (88%), Thaynes (73%), and Parley's Summit (95%).  Mill D N...

There's so much bad news on the weather front in the US due to the wildfire catastrophe in SoCal, that I thought I would talk about something more uplifting: The remarkable snow season that they are having in Japan.   I like to say that if Utah has the Greatest Snow on Earth , but Japan has the Greatest Snow Climate on Earth .  Really, there is nothing like Japan's "Gosetsu Chitai" or heavy snow region near the Sea of Japan.  It is the snowiest, densely populated region on Earth with Sapporo the snowiest city in the world with a population of more than 1 million and Sukayu Onsen in the Hakkoda Mountains in northern Honshu the snowiest inhabited place on Earth.  The numbers below are based on 1981-2010 climate normals. There are three things that make Japan's Gosetsu Chitai so special for snow.  First, it lies downstream of Eurasia, the world's biggest continent, which results in frequent and prolonged cold-air outbreaks over the Sea of Japan during the East...