The Waiting Game Begins

A pretty good upper-elevation storm cycle is coming to an end at the upper elevations.  Total water equivalent at Alta-Collins since October 30th is as of 7 AM this morning (Monday, November 2nd) is 2.6 inches.  Total snowfall during the period based on interval measurements is now up to 17 inches with the total snow depth now at 19".  

At 9662 ft, Collins received mostly snow in this event.  It's possible that there was rain at that elevation or rain mixed with snow for brief periods as the wet-bulb temperature reached as high as 34°F during a few periods.  The wet-bulb temperature, which is the lowest temperature that can be achieved through the evaporation of water, is a better (but still imperfect) discriminator of precipitation type than normal temperature.  It's a about a 50/50 chance of snow at a wet-bulb temperature of 33°F, so when you go beyond that, it's getting closer to a rain situation.  

At the base (8530 feet), yesterday was a nothingburger.  Snow and rain occasionally fell, but the mild temperatures prevented any accumulations.  Overnight snow levels fell and eventually made it down to about 7200 feet as there's a skiff of wet snow at the Tanners Flat campground this morning.

Source: UDOT

Thus, for those tempting fate with turns this morning, expect to see a significant decline in new snow depth with decreasing elevation.  

We might see a few more snow showers today, but for the most part things are winding down.  The waiting game (for more snow) begins today.  The models are advertising a weak storm for Wednesday, although amounts are none to a few inches depending on the member in the Utah Snow Ensemble, and there are a couple of ensemble members giving us something with a brush by system that passes to the north later in the week.  Overall, there's not much to get excited about through November 9th.  After that some of the ensemble members and global models suggest we might see some action again, but it's too soon to get confident about that.    

May the odds be ever in your favor if you are skiing today.