Wasatch Weather Weenies

A couple of weeks ago I commented on the net decline of water in the Great Salt Lake over the past year (see Status of the Great Salt Lake ). Following a media briefing by Great Salt Lake Commissioner Brian Steed, the low lake levels are now getting press coverage in the Salt Lake Tribune (see Great Salt Lake again dips to 'scary low level ') and Deseret News ( How is the health of the Great Salt Lake ).   This year's decline is especially disappointing because our April 1 snowpack was 96 to 109 percent of median in basins that drain to the Great Salt Lake.     Source: NRCS Although snowpack measured by SNOTEL stations on April 1 doesn't tell the whole spring runoff story, it's not encouraging that we will probably see about a 2 foot decline in lake level in a year during which we reached close-to-median snowpack. The figure below has been adapted from the 2nd Edition of my book Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth and shows the area of the Great Salt Lake at s...

With the end of July approaching, we've reached the time of year when I wonder if any snow will survive until next season in the central Wasatch.   Not much remains at present.  I noticed a few shrinking patches in the usual spots on the American Fork Twin and in upper Hogum yesterday from the top of Hidden Peak.   Can one or more of these survive?  Let's check back in late August.   Despite the loss of snow, we have avoided blistering heat so far this July with only two days so far reaching 100°F.  We've also been fortunate that the prevailing flow has only intermittently brought a bit smoke into the Salt Lake Valley from the Monroe Canyon Fire south of Richfield (or other western fires).  Sometimes it's been aloft but not at ground level, with a tinge of brown in the clouds.  This seems to be the case this morning, although it's hard to tell from the photo below.  A reminder that the HRRR-smoke forecasts are available from ma...

A recent article in the Deseret News  highlighted that the University of Utah could be in danger of losing $100+ million annually due to the Trump Administration's grant policies.   In reality, as discussed to some degree in the article, the policies and budget being pursued by the Trump Administration are far worse than that.   Although it's a bit ambiguous what the Deseret News editor's based the $100 million figure on, it appears it is the proposed reduction of indirect cost rates applied to grants from current levels (which vary by institution but are typically in the 45–60% range with some lower and higher rates) to 15%.  At the University of Utah, the current rate is 54%, which is applied to most grant expenditures except for a few things such as permanent equipment over $5000, tuition, and participant support. Indirect cost rates are negotiated between institutions and federal agencies and are meant to cover administrative overhead, facilities costs,...

As we enter the climatological hottest part of the year, it seems like this July hasn't been as awful as those in recent memory. Indeed, looking at the observations from the Salt Lake Airport, the first 3 weeks of the month have come in as cooler (based on average temperature) than the previous four years.   Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ So, perhaps not too bad by recent standards.   However, things look different with a long-range view. As evident in the time series above, this July 1-21 still rates as the 11th warmest on record, ahead of any similar period during the 20th century.   And if you are wondering if that is unique the the airport, it isn't.  The July 1-21 mean temperature at the Bountiful Bench site, with continuous records back to 1975, are also the 11th warmest on record, ahead of all 20th century years for which data is available.   Insert your complaints in the comments below...

We had a brief interruption of weather monotony yesterday evening in northern Utah with thunderstorms in portions of northern Utah including Utah County, southern and eastern Salt Lake County, Wasatch County, Summit County as illustrated by the radar-estimated precipitation for the 6-hour period ending 0600 UTC 19 July (0000 MDT Saturday).   Source: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/ Northern Salt Lake County, including my place, was largely skunked other than some sprinkles or light showers and gusty winds.  We did get a bit of a light show from the lightning, as well as some weakly developed mammatus and a primary and secondary rainbow.  In other news, I am enjoying a temporary office-free period as my boxes were moved from the INSCC building to the new Applied Science building late last week, but I still don't have access to the latter.  If memory serves correct, I spent 27 of my 30 years at the U in 488 INSCC.  I leave behind lots of gr...

Today was the ribbon cutting for the new L.S. Skaggs Applied Science Building at the University of Utah.  Look closely for the oversized red scissors. The building is a game changer for Atmospheric Sciences and Physics and Astronomy at the University of Utah.  Both departments have been in old, decaying buildings for many years (with a few exceptions such as myself who was in a newer building but isolated from most of my colleagues).  We now have a gorgeous, state-of-the-art facility! A quick tour. The auditorium.  Looking forward to teaching or giving seminars here.   The (still-to-be-finished) computer lab where we will be teaching weather analysis and forecasting classes.   Meeting rooms remain important and I'm hoping to get squatting rights for occasional meetings in this one so I can stare at the views instead of the monitor.  The future home of Professor Powder.  Sadly, I will no longer be able to see the central Wasatch (I think ...

The current elevation of the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor on the south shore is 4192.4 feet.  Although this is above the record minimum from 2022, it is still well below the long-term average of 4200 feet and the so-called minimum health level of 4198 feet.  It has now been about 13 years since we were last at that minimum healthy level.  Source: USGS A look over the past year shows a net decline in elevation on this date of nearly 2 feet.  Lake levels will decrease further in the coming months as they typically decline through the summer and fall.  Last year we dropped about 2 feet after this date.  Lake elevations over the past year at Saltair. Source: USGS The current elevation at Saline in the north arm is 4191.9 feet, which is very close to where it was last year.  Lake elevations over the past year at Saline. Source: USGS So it's a "push" in the north arm and a net loss in the south arm, which means a net decline for the entire lake sys...

It's pretty slow in the weather department these days.  As is often the case in July, the storm track is well to the north and the GFS forecast for the next 10 days (below) shows just some gasps monsoon moisture to give us some afternoon clouds and maybe some showers or t-storms from time to time.   Perhaps one of those monsoon surgest can be a bit more potent.  There's one near the end of the forecast period that runs through western Colorado and Eastern Utah.  Maybe it will pay a visit.  That said, this looks about as July-like as July gets.  A colleague commented that it seems like it has been pretty dry.  Since mid May , there have been four days with measurable rain at the Salt Lake Airport: May 15 (0.21"), May 18 (0.73"), June 22 (0.16"), and July 4 (0.16").  If we were to make it to July 20 without any more precipitation, the 2-month period from May 20 to July 20 would be the 8th driest on record (the lowest such period for precip is 0...

A tip of the hat for the paraphrasing of post's title to Daniel Kahneman's excellent book, "Thinking Fast and Slow."  Early in the morning on July 4, a flash flood hit the Guadalupe River in Kern County, Texas.  As I write this in the evening on July 9, media reports suggest there are 120 confirmed deaths and still more than 150 people missing.   This is a terrible tragedy that given modern weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities shouldn't happen.  The question is why did it happen? In our modern, social-media-driven, hyper-politicalized times, you can find just about anything to support your preconceived notions as to why this happened.  There have been reports blaming climate change, National Weather Service personnel cuts, National Weather Service forecasts, the retirement of a National Weather Service Warning Coordination meteorologist due to the actions of Doge, lax county emergency management officials, unapproved alarm systems, etc. ...

I've heard there have been a few storms in northern Utah, but we escaped on the 1st of the month to the blissfully cool and moist air of Ketchikan, Alaska.  I haven't seen a temperature above 64°F since arriving and the sky has mostly been cloud covered.  You know, proper hiking weather.   Few things top the 4th of July in Ketchikan.  You haven't really lived until you've experienced the parade here. And the flying of the flag by heli to open the festivities remains one of my favorite traditions. I'm not a good fisherman, but fortunately my wife's cousin is.  He led us to victory this morning.    It's raining now.  No complaints.