Wasatch Weather Weenies

In the previous post, I commented about the Goldilocks temperatures over the past two weeks.  In my view, they were ideal for avoiding the use of home heating or cooling.   That said, they were not Goldilocks from a climate perspective. In fact, this May is going to go down as the warmest on record at Salt Lake City.  With one day left to go (today), the average temperature for the month is an incredible 67.1˚F.  That eclipses the prior record set in 1934 of 66.7˚F.   Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ The 67.1˚F will likely go up a bit more today. I actually found this a bit surprising because there hasn't been any exceptional heat.  However, May has been characterized by relatively little variability in large-scale weather systems compared to normal.  Instead we've simply had sustained warmth.  In the plot below, the range of "normal" (i.e., averages for 1991–2020) is indicated by the green background.  This May, we had onl...

Since about May 12th, we've been locked into what I'll call the large-scale doldrums with relatively weak flow at upper levels and a lack of strong synoptic systems and fronts.  The average 500-mb height analysis for May 12 to May 27 shows the pattern that has predominated quite well with a long-wave trough over the central Pacific, ridge over western North America, and trough over the Canadian maritimes.   Image source: NOAA/PSL At the same time, the pattern over Utah and indeed a good chunk of Nevada and the Sierra Nevada has been quite active from a thunderstorm perspective.  The reason for this is the weak short-wave trough that is embedded in the long-wave ridge (indicated by the dashed line above).  Systems have moved through this trough, modulating thunderstorm coverage and intensity, but it has refused to go away.   As a result, we've seen lightning and thunder on a regular basis in the Salt Lake Valley.  Other than that, there hasn't been...

The Great Salt Lake at Saltair* rose 4.7 feet from 4188.7 feet on October 1st of last year to 4,193.4 feet on May 1st of this year.  That's a big increase, but it is still very low.  The graph below illustrates the lake elevations at Saltair based on data from the USGS.  The orange line indicates the 4193.4 ft level, showing that the current elevation is still below all but the low stand in the early 1960s, recent seasonal minimums in the fall, and the drawn out low period of the past couple of years.   Lake elevation at Saltair since 1847 (USGS data) You may have noticed the asterisk above.  Saltair provides long-term records for the south arm of the lake, but the rock-fill railroad causeway dividing the lake in half can cause elevation imbalances.  Additionally, the berm in a gap in the causeway was raised recently.  As a result, while the south arm receives most of the freshwater runoff and has risen a lot, the north arm has only climbed slight...

It's never over until it's over, but yesterday was probably my last day of resort skiing for the season.   It was an unusual last day, with smoked filled skies from the Canadian wildfires.   Friday night lows at the top of Hidden Peak were only 39˚F, yet there was a solid freeze of the snow on the mountain thanks to clear skies and long-wave radiative cooling.  Regulator was "not recommended" first thing and I can confirm that the ski patrol was on point.  With early sun, Mineral offered up soft skiing quickly due to its easterly and southerly exposures, but I'm always happier when the steeper lines off the tram can be skied.  North Chute and the like with May morning sun exposure began to soften up and ski well around 10:30.   It will be interesting to see if Snowbird can make July.  There is still an enormous amount of snow on the upper mountain.  Water equivalent at the SNOTEl site, although now well below where we were in 2010/1...

 Yesterday evening, while out for a walk, I noticed a wall of dust over the western Salt Lake Valley.   After returning home, I took a look at a video from the west-facing camera my department operates at the University of Utah and it showed a remarkable plume originating to the north and presumably from the exposed Great Salt Lake bed in what used to be Farmington Bay. Video from @UUtah @UofUATMOS showing considerable dust blowing into Salt Lake Valley apparently from exposed Great Salt Lake bed pic.twitter.com/paL8HoHTwd — Jim Steenburgh (@ProfessorPowder) May 18, 2023 Much has been made about the snowpack, runoff, and rise of the lake.  Indeed, the lake elevation at Saltair Boat Harbor has increased over 4 feet from its record low last fall.  It currently sits at about 4193.3 feet, but that is still remarkably low as can be seen by the elevation graph below for the past 40 years.   As a result, the lake area remains low and lake-bed is still expos...

Snow is melting and the decline in lower-to-mid elevation snowpack has been impressive.   The lowest SNOTEL in the Wasatch Range is Ben Lomond Trail in the northern Wasatch (5972').  Snowpack water equivalent has dropped like a stone there from its all-time 47" peak (with records going back to 1981) to 17.1 inches yesterday.  It remains at an all-time high, ahead of 2011, 1984, and 1983.  Based on the forecast, I suspect it will probably make it about another 10 days before becoming snow free. Source: NRCS In City Creek Canyon, the low-elevation Louis Meadow site (6700') has also seen an incredible decline from 43.3 to 13.1 inches.  It's now behind where the snowpack was in 2010/11.   Source: NRCS A bit higher on Lookout Peak (8161'), the big melt has just begun and has been slower.  Although now behind the 2010/11 snowpack, 45" of water remains.  Streamflows in City Creek are forecast to increase in the coming days as this upper-elevati...

A red snake at Snowbird in September Although it was a great ski season, the reality is that transportation challenges remain ongoing in the Cottonwoods.  The Central Wasatch Commission recently approved its Big Cottonwood Canyon Mobility Action Plan  in which they recommend the following Restripe the Big Cottonwood Canyon Park & Ride lot (I have no idea why they included this extremely minor change) Implement a supplementary shuttle in Big Cottonwood Canyon Enhanced bus service with a dedicated transit lane with resort mobility hubs Improvements at the intersection between Fort Union Boulevard and Wasatch Boulevard Tolling, restrictions to canyon on-road parking, and incentivizing bus options Year-round bus service featuring canyon trailhead stops Additionally, this week UDOT apparently began to float a trial balloon for tolling plans, with media reports suggesting costs for travel would vary, but tolls could be between $25 and $35 per vehicle.  In Little Cottonwood...

As much as people like to argue about whether or not ski area snowfall reports are legit, but perhaps there's more to argue about in the "day's of sunshine claim."   Snow Brains recently published a top 7 list of the sunniest ski resorts in America.  Coming in at #1 was Palisades Tahoe with "more than 300 sunny days per year." The 300 days of sunshine claim as been around for as long as I can remember.  When I was a kid, walking uphill both ways to school in sub-zero temperatures in upstate NY, I used to read promotional brochures from the Lake Tahoe area claiming more than 400" of snow and 300 days of sunshine and dream about how incredible the skiing must be there.  I mean, it must either be snowing or sunny!  What could be better.  Source:  https://visitlaketahoe.com/ski-and-snowboard/and-the-award-for-the-best-weather-to-ski-in-lake-tahoe /  However, there are many things that are puzzling about that number.  First, it is an annual n...

In the wake of this season's historical avalanche cycle, I was curious about the resilience of the proposed Little Cottonwood gondola to such an assault. I haven't located gory details, but a basic summary is found on page 2-48 of the Little Cottonwood Canyon Environmental Impact Statement, Vol. 1 .  I had assumed that they would locate towers outside of avalanche paths, but that apparently was not possible.  Instead, the report says that gondola alignment and towers avoided avalanche paths to the extent feasible .  Otherwise, the towers would be designed to be stronger and taller, the latter for cabins to avoid the powder blast. Source:  https://littlecottonwoodeis.udot.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LCC_FEIS_Volume1.pdf This season illustrates that this is a critical aspect of the gondola plans.  I obtained the image below from the Little Cottonwood Canyon Alternative Interactive Maps web site.  It shows the location of the angle station and, with a...

Gordon Lightfoot died yesterday at the age of 84.  The Canadian singer-songwriter wrote one of the greatest weather related songs of all time, "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald." It was, in fact, one of the first two records that I bought as a kid, and the 45 looked exactly like the one below.  The yellow-orange label is seared into my synapses. What role it played in my eventual career path is unknown, but I loved the song and probably love it even more today.  The lyrics are historical, haunting, poetic, and powerful. The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down Of the big lake they called Gitche Gumee The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead When the skies of November turn gloomy With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more Than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty That good ship and true was a bone to be chewed When the gales of November came early The ship was the pride of the American side Coming back from some mill in Wisconsin As the big freighters...

Those of you keeping score at home know that through last week, the Snowbird SNOTEL had still not eclipsed the peak snowpack water equivalents reached in the 2005 and 2011 water years.   However, things changed over the weekend.   On April 26th, the snowpack water equivalent was 72.3", the highest of this season, but a shade lower than the 75.1" reached on two dates in 2001 and the 74.6" peak in 2005.  However, from April 26th to 30th, the snowpack water equivalent rocketed upwards to 76.2", a new record.   Source: NRCS How did this happen?  Certainly not from snowfall, as the last storm was on April 25th and would have been accounted for by the measurement on the 26th.  The 26th was a spectacular day with great skiing in the wake of that storm and on the 27th the site recorded 72.0", just a shade lower than the 26th.  Then from the 27th to the 28th the measurement jumped to 75.2", despite there being no significant precipitation.  ...