Wasatch Weather Weenies

With one day still to be added to the record books, it's safe to say that 2020 was an exceptional year meteorologically in Salt Lake City.   Let's look at the numbers through December 30th, although they won't change by more than a hair after today (December 31 is added).   2020 featured both exceptional warmth and dryness.  The plot below is a scattergram of mean annual temperature and precipitation. 2020 will rate as the 6th warmest (behind 2012, 2015, 2018, 2016, and 2017) and the 2nd driest (behind 1979) on record. This is the hallmark of a "hot drought," with higher temperatures, which lead to increased evapotranspiration and water demand for irrigation, making a moderate drought severe or a severe drought even worse.  For July to December, 2020 was the driest on record and the 4th warmest.  This is essentially uncharted territory for the combination of low prcipitaiton and warmth in Salt Lake City.  Prior to the 21st century, no July-Decembe...

It's a pretty lean snow season so far across the west.  A look at NRCS SNOTEL snow-water equivalent data for the contiguous western United States showing most major drainage basins running at or below median.  Source: NRCS In northern Utah, there isn't a single SNOTEL at or above median.  The closest is Hickerson Park in the northeast Uinta Mountains (where median is pretty pathetic to begin with), which sits at 96%. Source: NRCS In the central Wasatch, Snowbird, Mill D, Brighton, and Thaynes Canyon are at 81%, 68%, 51%, and 56% of median.  Records at the snowbird SNOTEL go back to 1990.  We're currently running at about the 30th percentile for snow water equivalent since then, meaning that 30% of the seasons were below current levels and 70% were above.  30th percentile doesn't sound that bad, but the difference between 30th percentile and the absolute lowest year on record is only a couple of inches of SWE and not that much.    Source: NRCS On t...

Salt Lake City is close to a dubious record: The driest July–December on record.   Since July 1, the airport has received only 1.86 inches of precipitation.  Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers If no more precipitation fell through the end of the calendar year, this would easily break the old record for lowest July–December precipitation of 2.20 inches set in 1958.   However, the question is will we make it to the end of the year with no more than 0.34" of precipitation at the airport? It's going to be close.  We have two precipitation systems affecting us before the end of the year.  Today we have a system moving across southern Utah.  It brings some light precipitation, most likely in the form of snow, to the Salt Lake Valley today.   Accumulations are, however, limited and likely to be less than an inch of snow and a few hundredths of an inch of water equivalent.  Then there's another storm on New Year's Eve.  The GFS fore...

Yesterday afternoon, I learned via social media feeds and news reports of a possible early Christmas morning avalanche at Belleayre Mountain Ski Center in the Catskill Mountains of New York (see Avalanche damages lodge at Belleayre Mountain Ski Center from CBS6 News in Albany).   Photos provided to CBS6 by Belleayre Mountain Ski Center show the damaged Overlook Lodge filled and surrounded by debris. Source: Belleayre Mountain Ski Center via CBS6 News Source: Belleayre Mountain Ski Center via CBS6 News The ski center also reported that they were closed and that "supersaturated snow from the Yahoo trail let loose and slid into the Overlook lodge." Source: Belleayre Mountain Ski Center Belleayre is located in the Catskills of southern New York.  Those from the New York City area would describe it as "upstate," but it was definitely "downstate" for someone like me who grew up northwest of Albany.   The ski center has a vertical drop of 1,404 feet and a top el...

If you are looking for a late Christmas gift for a snow lover, pick up my book Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth .   You can get it from t his Amazon link , but if you live in the Salt Lake or Park City area, consider calling my friends at King's English , Weller Book Works , or Dolly's Bookstore and see if they have any copies in stock.  

Yesterday's and last-night's storm delivered in spades in the Wasatch Range.  The Utah Avalanche Center reports 8-17" since yesterday morning with the highest amounts in upper Little Cottonwood.  Given the faceted, weak snowpack that existed prior to the storm, a backcountry avalanche warning has been issued for the mountains of northern and central Utah.  Data from Alta-Collins suggests a storm total of about 17" if one adds up the 7 inches through 1600 yesterday, when the board was wiped, and then the 10 inches overnight.  The heaviest snowfall was from about 1600-1800 when 6 inches fell with about .24" of water content.   Several of my University of Utah colleagues in Mechanical Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences, including Trent Meisenheimer (also affiliated with the Utah Avalanche Center), Tim Garrett, Eric Pardyjak, and Peter Veals are running a suite of instruments in the Alta area this winter.  Some of the data they are collecting is simply s...

Some HUGE storms have struck other regions of the Northern Hemisphere in recent days.  Previous posts describe 2+ meter dumps in the southern Limestone Alps of Europe ( Another Alpine Dumpage Update ) and Japan ( Gosetsu Chitai Dumpage ).  Adding insult to injury, huge snowfalls overnight in northern Pennsylvania and southern New York, including 44" at Newark Valley with snowfall rates of 4-5" per hour. Snowfall reports received as of 8:30 am. An intense snow band set up overnight around the Binghamton NY area, producing snowfall rates of 4-5" per hour. Among the highest snowfall totals thus far: Newark Valley NY 44", Litchfield PA 43", and Binghamton NY and Vestal NY 41" pic.twitter.com/zopzr501Ao — NWS Eastern Region (@NWSEastern) December 17, 2020 Lord have mercy!   I can't promise snow totals of that magnitude for the storm that is developing today, but let's have a quick update on where things stand.  We are currently in the prefrontal stage o...

As we await our next storm on Thursday, we once again look elsewhere for big dumpage.   Today it is Japan's Gosetsu Chitai, or heavy snow region.  Some huge totals are coming in from the Echigo Mountains of central Honshu. RECORD-BREAKING!! #Snow has been piling up at an unprecedented rate in #Japan . Fujiwara had 162cm (5.3feet) in 48hr. This is due to the combination of unseasonably cold Siberian air and unseasonably warm ocean temperatures. 150cm (4.9feet) is still possible into the next 48hr. pic.twitter.com/aTR6L7hGev — Sayaka Mori (@sayakasofiamori) December 16, 2020 Below are observations tabulated by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and run through Google Translator.  The big winner is at Fujiwara in Gunma Prefecture with 128 cm (50 inches) in 24 hours, 196 cm (77 inches) in 48 hours, and 203 cm (80 cm) in 72 hours.   Coming in second for the 48 and 72 hour totals is Tsunan with 149 and 173 cm (59 and 68 inches), respectively.  Tsunan is a l...

The snow accumulation season has gotten off to a slow start.  In my view, the Thursday storm must come through to get the Nordic season off life support and help more with the upper-elevation snowpack.  The time has come.  Let winter begin.   The forecasts are optimistic.  The GFS has a productive, slow moving frontal system moving across northern Utah on Thursday.  The forecast below is for 5 PM Thursday afternoon.  Temperatures are low enough that even if the storm starts out as rain at the airport, it should be cold enough to snow at Mountain Dell and the lower trailheads in the Cottonwoods and Mill Creek. Water and snowfall totals for Alta from todays 6Z initialized GFS for 8 AM Thursday through 4 PM Friday are .91 and 12.8 inches, respectively.  The NAM is a bit less enthusiastic with 0.54 and 7.6 inches, respectively.   The downscaled SREF is unusually excited, with all but 2 members producing 12" or more (including the light...

Here are a couple of ongoing examples of precipitation extremes for your entertainment this Thursday.   We've discussed the heavy snowfall in the Alps in previous posts.  I've found a new winner for extreme snowfall during the event, the Connyalm at 2105 meters in the Gailtaler Alps of East Tirol in Austria, just to the north of the Porzehütte site we've discussed previously. The time series below shows a remarkable increase in the height of the snowpack (HS) from about 20 cm at about 1800 CDT on 4 December to nearly 300 cm at 1200 on 9 December.   Source: https://avalanche.report/weather/stations If you prefer US units, that's an increase in snow depth of about 110 inches in 114 hours (4 3/4 days).  Remarkable stuff.   The camera at that location was down when I tried to pull it up.  Here are a couple of photos from the region to remind you of the beauty of snow. Source: https://www.megacam.at https://www.megacam.at Shifting gears ...

With the recent snowfall of 2 meters (80") or more in the Carnic Alps and surrounding region, one might wonder what it's like to ski in so much snow.   Not as good as you might think.  The reality is that powder skiing, like many things in life, requires some level of moderation, or what many call the Goldilocks storm.  In other words, not too big, not too small, but just right. Where the threshold is for too big is somewhat ambiguous as it depends on the condition of the underlying snowpack or surface (alpine meadows in the Alps often serve as the bed for glide avalanches) and the characteristics of the snow during the storm.  As storm totals go over about a half a meter (20") you can have great skiing when conditions are right, but as the storm rages on and accumulations deepen, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain momentum except on the steepest hills, where avalanche hazard is likely to be high.   When you get a meter (40") of snow, especi...

Some incredible snow totals continue to come in from the south side of the eastern Alps.  The biggest increase in the Height of Snowpack (HS) that I could find was at the Porzehütte, an Austrian Alpine Club hut in the Carnic Alps just north of the border of Italy.  I grabbed the screen shot below fortuitously when they peaked at around 2.34 meters, which represents more than a 2 meter increase in less than 24 hours.   Source: lawis.at/station I don't know how to access tabular data to get precise numbers for total water equivalent, but a guesstimate from the graph yields about 400 mm, so we're talking some serious concrete with 20% water content if those numbers are accurate.   The Carnic Alps, as well as the Julian Alps and Dolomites to the south, are one of the wettest parts of the Alps and prone to heavy precipitation.  An analysis of average annual precipitation in the Alpine region shows the highest values along the northern and southern "rims" of...

As we sit mired under a ridge in Utah, we look once again to the Alps for interesting mountain weather.  The storm discussed in prior posts has had quite an impact on the southern Limestone Alps of Austria and northeast Italy.  The Tyrolean newspaper Tiroler Tageszeitung reports level 5 (highest possible) in the East Tyrol, with power outages and mudslides in other areas.  Source: https://www.tt.com/artikel/30766028/wetterchaos-in-tirol-lawine-auf-haeuser-in-osttirol-strassen-in-nordtirol-gesperrt?slide-id=1 The Tirol Avalanche Report shows level 5 avalanche hazard in the East Tirol and portions of the Dolomites.  Heavy snow also fell along the Carnic Alps further east and south of Villach, Austria, not covered by the Tirol Avalanche Report. Source: https://avalanche.report/bulletin/latest In fact, one of the more impressive meteograms I could find was from the Porzehütte, an Austrian Alpine Club hut on the Carnic main ridge south of Obertilliach (red dot ...