Wasatch Weather Weenies

April 1st is commonly used as the day when the snowpack water equivalent (SWE) is at it's peak in the mountains of the western United States, although in reality it varies depending on aspect and elevation.  For example, peak snowpack on north aspects at 9500 feet isn't reached until late April.  Nevertheless, we'll take a look at where things stand today, a couple of days early, as an indicator of how the snow season has gone. Data from NRCS SNOTEL stations shows all basins in Montana, Wyoming, Colrado, and Utah between 98 and 135% of median SWE.  The fattest snowpack relative to median is in the upper elevations of the Lower Colorado-Lake Mean watershed, which gets most of its water from the mountains of far southwest Utah.  Other Utah watersheds are 100-117% of median. Source: NRCS Watersheds in California, Nevada, southern Oregon, southern Idaho, and New Mexico are generally at or below median, with the Salt and Upper Gila basins of Arizona running the f...

For the most part, there has been good news concerning the ozone layer in recent years as efforts to reduce ozone-depleting chemicals appear to be working.  However, unusually low stratospheric ozone concentrations are presently found over the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere.  Below is the total ozone over the Northern Hemisphere on Friday showing a clear ozone hole.    Source:  https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/NH.html One can compare that to the long-term climatology to illustrate that those concentrations are unusually low.  Source:  https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/NH.html Another way to look at it is to compare to past observations made during the satellite era (beginning in 1979.  The graphs below show the range of highest and lowest values of stratospheric ozone in the polar region (top) and temperature (middle) illustrating that both stratospheric ozone and temperature have been exceptionally low and occasionally at...

I love spring storms that bring snow to the mountains, accumulating snow to my yard, but little to no accumulation on the sidewalks and roads.  Last night's nailed it in the upper Avenues, pictured below.  Valley areas where snowfall rates were higher probably are seeing some accumulations on roads, but like politics, all weather is local, and for me, this storm is perfect. Through 7 am, Alta-Collins shows 8 inches on the stake since late yesterday.  The Utah Avalanche Center reports a total snowfall for the week of 12-21 inches in the central Wasatch and just over 2 feet in the northern Wasatch.  I suspect the riding conditions today will be outstanding and some of the best of the season.  Enjoy but be careful and keep your distance out there.

It was a wet night and morning in Salt Lake City, with a bit of the white stuff dusting the ground earlier this morning in the upper Avenues. Snowfall during the 24-hour period ending at noon today appears to be about 11 inches at Alta Collins.  Thusfar, it's a pretty good event, with more on the way. It's really interesting to look at what has been happening and what will happen from yesterday through tomorrow morning.  During this period, a large-scale upper-level trough is digging southward off the Pacific coast, resuting in southwesterly large-scale flow across the Great Basin. At 2100 UTC (1500 MDT) yesterday, the 700-mb analysis showed evidence of flow splitting around the southern high Sierra, with confluent flow over central Nevada where there was a weak wind shift from SW flow to the south to west-southwest flow to the north. Precipitation was not organized along that wind shift, but instead was widely scattered as convection developed due to heating of ...

Apologies to my readers out there.  There's quite a bit of weather happening and on tap for this week, but I've found blogging to be difficult.  I hope this will change in the near future.  Perhaps if the weather gets a little more exciting than yesterday's scattered thunderstorms.  One of the things I am doing to deal with these uncertain times is to read.  And when I say read, I don't mean news or social media, but books.  Last night I was looking for a challenge and I decided to crack open a book that I received as a gift, was published in 1997, and has been sitting on my end table for many months: The Adirondacks: A History of America's First Wilderness .  I was fortunate to grow up adventuring in the Adirondacks and any time I read about them, happy memories surface.  I'm not far enough into the book to recommend it yet, but it has already reminded me of the smell of rotting leaves in the late fall, the way that a canoe paddle breaks t...

It's been a long couple of days as I drove down to Tempe to extract my daughter from Arizona State.  Snow in Flagstaff required me to go through Vegas on the way down, which turned out to be fairly nice as the low desert is pretty green right now.  Returning we were able to drive through Flagstaff and it's really cool to start in saguaro forest and get to snow on the Mogollon Rim.  Sorry I didn't take any photos, but we didn't stop except when absolutely necessary, typically at the loneliest, most expensive gas stations we could find.  I've been looking at the forecasts and they are difficult to summarize succinctly.  Overall, I would describe the pattern for the next several days as typical of spring, which means changeable and showery, with the potential for cooler weather later in the week.  A warmer trough (valley rain, mountain snow) will pass Sunday night and Monday, followed by a deeper trough with cooler air that will dig over the western U.S. and...

Adding insult to injury, Salt Laker's were shaken this morning by what is estimated as a 5.7 magnitude earthquake centered near Magna in the northwest Salt Lake Valley.  All is well with me and my family and I hope the same for you and yours.  For information on what to do before, during, and after an earthquake, see  https://www.fema.gov/earthquake-safety-home .  Below is their drop, cover, and hold on reminder.  Note that if you can't get under sturdy furniture like a table or desk, crawl to an interior wall and away from the windows.  Source: FEMA I did not receive word from the University of Utah that classes were cancelled today until I was halfway through my morning class, which I was teaching online for the first time.  Although I have never taught it online before, the course is laid out in a way that is quite amenable to transitioning to online instruction.  It is a "flipped" class in which the students complete online instruction...

Sick of the wind?  Many are as it's been persistent and gusty now for a period spanning about 36 hours in the Salt Lake Valley. Observations from the University of Utah show southerly winds picking up in earnest around 0000 MDT 14 March (Saturday).  There was a brief letdown early Saturday morning, and then a peak late that afternoon.  Winds blew fairly steadily overnight as well, with a brief letdown just after 6 am this morning. Source: MesoWest  This is one observation location, so what happened at your home may have differed somewhat, but for the most part, it's been a persistently windy time. Over the past 24 hours, the strongest winds have been in the Wasatch Mountains, including a peak gust of 99 mph at the top of Snowbasin's Strawberry Bowl early this morning.  At lower elevations, there was a gust of 64 mph in Parley's Canyon near the quarry, 57 mph in the upper Avenues, 54 mph in Provo and Herriman.  The strong southerlies will continu...

Following Italy, all ski areas in the Austrian states of Tyrol, Saltzburg, and Vorarlberg will be closing after Sunday due to COVID-19 .  Most of Austria's major ski resorts are in these states. Early afternoon après in St. Anton. It's fortunate for the local economies that it is near the end of the high season, although the loss of a few weeks of revenue will still not be easy.  Austria has 254 ski areas with 5 lifts or more and nearly 35 million skier visits by foreign skiers.  Winter tourism in Austria generates 11.4 billion euros in direct and indirect revenues, representing 5% of Austria's GDP.  I suspect, however, that most Austrians support this move as they recognize the threat at hand. Here in Utah, the resorts continue to operate.  However, Snowbird closed its tram today.  Below is a screenshot from today's mountain report. In the overall scheme of things, it's just skiing.  I never thought I would say that, but perspectives chang...

What do University faculty do during spring break?  For me it depends on the weather.   This year I've had to do a number of software upgrades for my forecasting class, prep for moving online, and put out a few fires related to COVID-19, so I've been working.  I've also been alternating between biking and skate skiing for my daily workouts.  It's a nice mix and good social distancing.  Today we face an uncertain future, and I'm not talking about COVID-19.  Instead, I'm talking about the medium range snow forecast. There are two challenges.  First, there is a major transition in the large-scale flow pattern over the north Pacific basin forecast to occur over the next several days.  As depicted by the GFS forecast below, we have a major omega-block developing, characterized by high-amplitude ridging over the Gulf of Alaska, flanked by troughs to the west and east, the latter near the US west coast.  We can have confidence in the o...

We don’t know when a pandemic might strike, but we can be sure of two things. Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate. This is the dilemma we face, but it should not stop us from doing what we can to prepare. – Mike Leavitt, Former Gov. of Utah and Secretary of Health and Human Services, June 13, 2007 According to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker, there have now been 121,061 confirmed cases of COVID-19 world wide with 4,368 deaths.  In the US, there have been 1,039 with 29 deaths. Several US universities, including the Universities of Washington, Stanford, and Harvard, have or will be moving classes online.  Others may follow.  As things stand this morning, the University of Utah has not yet done this, but is reviewing the feasibility of doing so and is encouraging faculty to consider new methods of teaching to limit potential exposure in the classroom.  Below is the official statemen...

I don't know about you, but I'm starting to feel powder deprived.  Alta's new website has some nice visualizations for snowfall at the resort.  Looking at the graph below, which shows the daily new snow, one can see we haven't had a 10+ inch dump since February 16 and that the small storms that we have had have also been spread out.  December and January clearly spoiled me and probably you.  Monday's have been pretty repeatable the past couple of weeks.  I come in, look at a dismal pattern, pull up the NAEFS plumes, and see a flatline for the work week with a possibility of some snow the next weekend.  Today is no different.  Given that this week is spring break, this isn't the storm-skiing pattern I was hoping for.  A few dribs and drabs possible, but otherwise nothing too exciting.  On the other hand, I'm in decent Nordic shape this year, so perhaps I'll just stick to that and biking. 

If it seems like March is milder than it used to be in Salt Lake City, you're right. Looking at decadal-average temperatures at the Salt Lake City International Airport shows that March was warmer over the past 10 years than any other prior decade ending in 9.  The mean march temperature for 2010–2019 was 46.5˚F, 1.6˚F warmer than the next closest decade, 1990-1990, which averaged 44.9˚F.  If was also 4.4˚F warmer than the average march temperature for the entire period of record (1875–2019), which was 42.1˚F.   This time of year, it takes about 13 days for the average temperature to increase 4.5˚F.  For example, the average temperature on March 2 is 39.5˚F and by March 15 it is 44.  Thus, the 4.4˚F warmth during the past decade is the equivalent of spring coming about 2 weeks earlier than the long-term average.  The difference compared to the relatively cool 1950s and 1960s is even larger.  Those people must have been wondering if sp...

Yesterday's (Wednesday) high of 60˚F was the third 60 degree day of the calendar year, tying Feb 28 and 29 for the warmest temperature of the year so far.  We will eclipse that today, with the NWS going for a high at the airport of 63˚F.  I'm planning to go for a sloppy and slow skate ski at Mountain Dell later today as the skiing there is now officially on life support and probably won't last much longer.  The forecast over the next several days suggests continuation of a spring-like pattern, although precipitation will be moving in over the weekend.  Mild conditions will prevail through Saturday.  Today will be bluebird and spectacular.  Tomorrow (Friday) will also be nice, although there may be some inconsequential wispy high clouds at times and moderate southerly flow at upper elevations.  Saturday is a clear transition day with periods of high clouds and strong southwesterly flow in advance of an approaching trough and cold front, as depic...

Source: chainsawsuit.com Meteorologists like myself are on the front lines for science communication every day.  What other science profession has one of the most watched television channels (The Weather Channel), several minutes dedicated to the science in local news broadcasts, smart-phone apps, etc.?  We are on the public's "radar" every day. So I've been watching the communication, response, and reaction to COVID-19 with more than a passing interest.  I see many of the similar issues at play for epidemiologists, health professionals, government agencies, politicians, and the public as we have prior to, during, and following high-impact weather events. Many of the challenges that exist are not new.  First, scientific literacy is relatively low.  As noted by Carl Sagan: "We live in society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology." Second, there is strong anti-inte...

Forecasts point to a fairly quiet work week with the storm-track to our north and high pressure in control.  The NAEFS ensemble shows flat-line conditions (i.e., no precipitation) through the work week and then a lot of uncertainty about what will happen as the next trough moves into the western U.S. for the weekend.  Temperatures look to be on the rise each day and will be quite mild near the end of the week.  Below is the NWS forecast for Salt Lake City. Mountain Dell Nordic skiers should get out this week as I suspect it will be difficult to keep things going there after this coming weekend.  The dry week also means losing additional ground relative to climatology in the upper-elevation snowpack race.  I've mentioned previously that things are not a lock for an above average spring runoff statewide and a look at the latest SNOTEL observations shows a somewhat mixed bag.  The central Wasatch and Oquirrhs have most sites at or above 90-100% o...