Lots of October Water But Limited Snow

For the second year in a row, October has given us above average precipitation, but limited snowpack.

Below are the numbers for accumulated precipitation in the Great Salt Basin based on SNOTEL stations.  Median for October (Green line) is 2.5". Last year we got 4.2".  This year, through yesterday (October 24, black line), we are at 4.1".  We'll probably add a bit to that before the month is over.  

Sadly, in both months, nearly all of this precipitation ended up in the soil rather than the snowpack, with little snowpack water equivalent at the end of last October and little presently this October.  

That isn't to say there isn't any snow.  There are upper-elevation sites with a few hints of snow, but nobody is over an inch of snowpack water equivalent.  

If you are wondering, Snowbird is at 0.5".  We're basically near zero in Collins Gulch.  

Source: Alta.  Downloaded 1205 MDT 25 Oct 2026

On the positive side, the soils are moistened, sprinklers aren't running in the valleys, and we're not dealing with widespread faceting snow on north aspects as often occurs from October storms. 

In my veiw, forecasts through the end of them month are not very exciting.  I've commented in prior posts about the "broken jet stream" and currently one hell of a split-flow situation dominates over the north Pacific.  Below is the ECMWF Analysis for 0000 UTC 25 October showing a strong jet emerging from Asia over the weatern Pacific where it splits into two branches, a polar jet that goes north to the northern coast of North America near 70°N and a subtripical jet that crosses Hawaii near 20°N.  

Image source: tropicaltidbits.com

That's 50° of latitude, or about 5000 km, between the two branches.  That said, the flow in between isn't dead as there are a couple of closed lows and they will bring some precipitation to the western US at times.  Even today, we have a trough exiting Utah that might give us a few mountain snow showers.  What looks to be missing through the end of the month is the type of direct hit, long-lived storm needed to build a base at mid and upper elevations.  We may see some mountains snowshowers at times, but probably not a game changer.  

A look at the Utah Snow Ensemble shows a few weak storms between now and the end of the month at 00Z 1 November.  Median snowfall produced by all of the members at that time is 8.1", with a range of 0.3 to 20.9".  Those are summed accumulations, not settled snow depth on the ground.  21" would be nice, but that is the snowiest of all 82 members and not a high probability outcome.  

So, the odds suggest no game changing storms through Halloween.  After that, however, there are some hints that we could see a more substantial storm.  Not all ensemble members have bought into this, but many members of the European (ENS) ensemble have, as have some, but not all, of the US (GEFS) ensemble.  

Keep your fingers crossed.