Evidence of a "Warm" Snow Drought

The latest snow observations show very clear evidence of a "warm" snow drought, one in which the snowpack has been strongly affected by abnormally warm temperatures, resulting in a majority of precipitation falling as rain and periods of snowmelt or loss at low to mid elevations.  

Evidence of this warm snow drought is especially clear if one looks at the yesterday's percentage of median 1991–2020 snowpack water equivalent at SNOTEL stations as a function of elevation.  As shown in the plot below, stations below 7600 feet are at 30-49% of median and, as indicated by the red bars, are all at all time minimums for their periods of records (which vary in length but extend back at least 27 years).  

Source: NRCS

In contrast, the percentage of median at higher elevation stations is higher and anywhere from 69–111%.  Yes, incredibly, both the Snowbird and Brighton SNOTELs are now sitting above median.  It's good to be at high altitude in the upper Cottonwoods.  As meteorologist S. D. Green said in 1935: 

"Skiers will eventually find that the…heads of the [Cottonwood] canyons…offer the best skiing to be found in the Wasatch Mountains.”

But if he were alive today, he might instead say:

"Skiers will eventually find that the…heads of the [Cottonwood] canyons…offer the best skiing to be found in the Wasatch Mountains and their advantages over other lower elevation regions of the Wasatch are growing as the climate warms."

But now lets add insult to injury and turn off the precipitation.  The latest model forecasts are pretty much a disaster.  A massive high-amplitude ridge is setting up along the Pacific Coast and looks to starve Utah of moisture.  I am electing not to show the forecasts due to their graphic nature, which some readers might find disturbing.