People keep asking me when it's going to snow. My response?
How the hell would I know?
Things are grim. It's OK to be cranky.
As a scientist, I like to look at the evidence. I'm doing this at about 7:15 on a Wednesday night part way into a fine bottle of Chianti, which I find necessary to numb sting of the forecasts.
Let's start with the GFS. A paltry 0.04" of water and 0.7" of snow for Alta-Collins over the next week.
The Euro? I don't have an equivalent graphic. I've looked at the next 10 days. it might have a few more scraps at times, but nothing to get excited about.
The Utah Snow Ensemble? Well, the Euro is in it along with 81 other forecasts from the European and US ensembles. It too is pretty grim. The forecast below covers 10 days. There's one member that produces just over 20 inches. There's always hope. There are 10 members total that produce more than 10 inches. There's always hope.
So, 12% of the members give us 10" or more. Not sure I'd book the private jet from SoCal for a deep powder day based on that. 75% of the members produce 5" or less. That would be sobering if it wasn't for the Chianti.
Just how insane is this pattern? The plot below includes 500-mb height contours (the flow roughly parallels these contours with lower heights to the left) and wind speed color fill. There is practically no flow from Baja California to northern Alaska. The strongest flow is actually off the SoCal coast, but even there it is < 30 m/s (60 knots).
The closed low causing that weak flow will move across the southwest and give some areas of precip to central and southern Utah and eventually, gulp, parts of Colorado. For northern Utah, some clouds and maybe flurries with little accumulation.
Take a look at that image again. The Pacific Jet want's nothing to do with the west coast. It takes a hard left turn off the coast of Japan, circumnaigates even Alaska, and then drops down into central North America. Sucks for Utah. Sucks for Chicago.
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