Winter is Coming

I've been waiting all season to say that, but the models are trending and trending in a way that it may actually snow, not only in the mountains, but even, dare I say it, at low elevations. 

Let's break things down into pieces.  I'll use the Euro and hit some of the highlights.  Overnight tonight, a strong mid-level cold front pushes through northern Utah, bringing our first round of precipitation in the form of mountain snow and valley rain.  This front is the band of heavy precipitation extending from SW Wyoming through central Utah and Arizona in the Euro forecast below valid 0900 UTC (0200 MST) tonight.  

In the way of that front, moist, unstable southwesterly flow predominates late tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night with periods of mountain snow and snow levels near the valley floor, although official NWS forecasts are for less than an inch through Tuesday night at the lowest elevations of the Salt Lake Valley and a bit more on the benches.  

Wednesday looks like the best storm of the season for the valleys (something else I've wanted to say for a while, although we've had all of 0.1" at the airport so far!).  The Euro (and other models) has a cold front moving through Wednesday morning bringing snow to all elevations.  

I've been busy planning for our field campaign today so lack the time for a proper deep dive on snowfall amounts.  I encourage you to look monitor official forecasts and drive slowly on snow covered roads when they finally appear.