The Last Hours of Summer

After a blistering hot warmest summer on record, the last few hours of summer giving us a blissful kiss of winter with a fresh coat of of snow in the mountains. 

Source: Snowbird

It's a bit difficult to gauge accumulations from what automated sensors are running right now in the Wasatch, but my guess based on the Alta-Collins total snow depth sensor is that they got about 3 inches or so overnight.  We'll see some additional snow showers today, although accumulations will perhaps be an angry inch. 

Tomorrow may provide a bit of a cold break, but given the instability, the possibility of snow showers remains.  Although accumulations will likely be limited, if I get out hiking, my plan will be to be ready for anything.  Even a brief period of snow squalls can be damn uncomfortable if you are traveling light. 

The big question mark for the weekend is what will happen as the trough swings Saturday night and Sunday.  The models are hinting that a more organized band of precipitation may develop during that period and affect the Wasatch.  See, for example, the NAM forecast below. 

Most members of our downscaled SREF generate about 0.2-0.5" of water during that period, which would probably equate to another 2-5" of snow.  There are, a couple members that are more enthused, including one ARW member that generates over 2 inches of water by Monday morning.  Ah, one can always find a solution to their liking in the ensembles, but recognize it is a low probability outcome. 

The bottom line for this weekend is keep an eye on forecasts and be prepared for cold unsettled weather if you are heading out and trying to do some hiking this weekend.  I'm already assuming that mountain biking is probably a nonstarter outside of the lowlands.