Fabio was once a hurricane but has weakened and is now classified as a post-tropical cyclone, a phrase used to describe a cyclone that has lost the characteristics of a tropical cyclone. Fabio is presently moving northward off the Baja coast, with his "big hair" cirrus blowoff streaming over southern California.
|1200 UTC 16 Jul – 1200 UTC 18 Jul 2012 IR Satellite loop with|
GFS precipitable water (contours) and dynamic tropopause (color filled)
|Percentage of warm-season (16 Jun–15 Oct) precipitation|
associated with eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones.
Source: Corbosiero et al. (2009).
|Source: Corbosiero et al. (2009)|
The GFS projects that Fabio will bring a surge of high precipitable water air into southern California today and tomorrow, following a path just west of that of Doreen (1977).
|0600 UTC 18 Jul – 0000 UTC 20 Jul 2012 GFS sea level |
pressure (contours) and precipitable water (shaded) forecast
However, the moisture and instability are fairly meager and will yield only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern California today and tonight. Moisture from Fabio will eventually stream through Nevada, but this will only yield a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Fabio may be a model, but meteorologically, he's a tease.