Monday, November 7, 2016

How to Excite Skiers with Medium Range Forecasts

Good news!  The GFS is predicting the passage of a bonafide upper-level trough and surface cold front next Thursday.  Snow is coming at last, right?

Not so fast.  It's so easy cherry pick from the medium-range forecast models and ensembles a solution that will raise the stoke.  Alternatively, I could just say that there's some hope in the forecasts for later in the month.

The more complete picture is that there is remarkable spread in the forecasts for next Thursday.  Just look at the GEFS forecast below.  You can find whatever you want in those forecasts.  The spread is HUGE.

In other words, we have no idea what the weather will be like next Thursday.  Sure, there are a few solutions that suggest the possibility of a storm, but others that show continuation of the same boring, monotonous pattern.  Endorsing either of these solutions makes little sense scientifically.

Don't be a cherry picker.  And, more importantly, don't forget to vote.