Wednesday, November 30, 2016

This Will Be the Hottest Fall on Record

Given the fact that we are experiencing our coldest temperatures since February, much of the Salt Lake Valley is snow covered, and we have a 40" base in upper Little Cottonwood Canyon, it may be hard to believe this is going to be the hottest fall on record, but it is going to be the hottest fall on record. 

With one day left to go into the record books (today), the average temperature for this fall at the Salt Lake City International Airport sits at 57.7ºF, 0.7ºF warmer than 2015.  

Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers
Although we are going to lose a little ground today, my hazy, jet-lagged, early morning math suggests we will come out ahead of 2015 when today is in the books.  Regardless, both years add to our string of five consecutive years with exceptionally warm falls.  How much the recent fall warmth is due to long-term global warming or climate variability is an interesting question.  Thanks to global warming, the dice are loaded for above average temperatures, but my view is that the last few years the large-scale flow has also been favorable for us to have warmer falls.  

3 comments:

  1. Will you please expand this comment?

    "but my view is that the last few years the large-scale flow has also been favorable for us to have warmer falls."

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    Replies
    1. The basic idea is that the extreme warmth of the last few falls reflects both a warm pattern (in other words, frequent ridging) and the long term warming trend.

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