Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Potential warming

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day.  The 18Z NAM is forecasting a midday 700-hPa temperature of 2C.  If we were to mix out to that level, that would give us a max temperature of about 19C (66F). 

We lack the solar energy to mix out to that level, but will the wind do the job for us?  There is a fairly strong along-barrier pressure gradient tomorrow, so I'm interested to see if we can get the southerlies going in the valley and really warm things up or if we keep a stable layer going as the NAM suggests.

PCAPS folks might want to keep an eye on this and run through some scenarios.  


  1. It certainly will be an interesting case to keep an eye on. As I left the office Trevor was noting that the 1 KM WRF wasn't even producing a nocturnal cold pool tonight...

  2. 8:30 am temp at WBB: 51F. 12Z sounding shows surface based inversion and then another pronounced stable layer just below 700 mb. Mixing out to the base of that would put us well into the 60s. Looks like a good day to ride shoreline...