Saturday, January 28, 2012

A Nightmare of a Forecast

The last couple of days I've been looking at the long-range forecast with grave concern.  A couple of weak systems may give us some snow early next week, but after Wednesday, the dreaded high-amplitude ridge is forecast to return.  Further, this ridge persists in most members of the 0000 UTC GEFS ensemble for a long, long, long time as shown in 144, 240, and 336 hour forecasts below, which cover the period through 0000 UTC 11 February.

Source: Penn State E-Wall
That's essentially a 2-week forecast, which gets us out into "dream-prog land," so there is some hope that the long-range forecasts won't verify.  But a dry period setting up in the 5-10 day period seems pretty likely and the fact that this is a high-amplitude, long-wave ridge has me concerned.  Ditto for the Climate Prediction Center, which gives us >50% chance of below normal period in the 8-14 day time frame.  Those are pretty much the strongest odds they will give at such long lead times.

I guess the bottom line this year is ski it if you got it.

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