Friday, January 13, 2012

Buckle Up
It's going to be a wild ride the next several days if the computer models are on track.  We have already discussed (ad nausea) the predictability issues related to the stormtrack.  For the forecast through Wednesday, however, we're starting to see some consensus emerge.  As illustrated by the 1200 UTC GFS, skiers may need to be patient.  We get a little of the white stuff on Monday, but then the storm track shifts north for a couple more days.

After that, things get interesting.  Once again, as we look further out, confidence erodes, but in this case, we have more agreement amongst the ensemble members and other computer models for a solution similar to that depicted toward the end of the loop above in which northern Utah is inundated in extremely moist westerly large-scale flow.

This is a pattern best described as "wet, windy, and warm."  If it verifies (and it's not yet a lock, but the dice are getting loaded), be prepared to buckle up because it is going to be a wild ride.

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