Thursday, January 12, 2012

More Waffling

Following up briefly on the previous post, the sensitivity of the long-range forecast for the Wasatch is illustrated quite well by comparing the 156 hour GFS forecast from 1200 UTC today (valid 5 PM Wednesday afternoon) to the 150 hour GFS forecast from 1800 UTC today (same valid time).  The former produces .1 to .25 inches of snow water equivalent over the Cottonwoods, the latter nothing.

Really, these forecasts aren't a heck of a lot different, except for precipitation in northern Utah.  Life at the edge of the storm track is uncertain!  My life would be so much easier if I lived in Jackson...

1 comment:

  1. glad you posted this. The 18Z freaked me out a bit. Even though, I know logically that amt. of snow is going to depend on that storm track, which everybody is saying is uncertain, and even though I know that GFS that far out is far from exact. Crossing my fingers that sags a bit south. Looks like Jackson Hole should do well for sure.Steve