Although the Eve of Christmas Eve brought some light rain showers to the Salt Lake Valley, snowfall at Alta yesterday, overnight, and this morning has added up to a surprisingly healthy 9 inches. If you aren't used to interpreting the "Snow Interval" column below, it's an automated measurement of snow depth on a wooden board that gets wiped from time to time. You can see below how 2 inches accumulated through 16:00 yesterday afternoon (time increases upward), then the board was wiped, another 4" fell through 4 AM when the board was wiped again, and then another 3 inches fell through 8:00 this morning.
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| Source: MesoWest |
What will happen tonight as Santa delivers his gifts and tomorrow when Johnny and Jane want to play with their new sleds? I'm not going to lie to you. I don't have a good idea and I'm glad I don't have to tell Santa that. The pattern is messy with a bunch of disorganized areas of precipitation in southwesterly flow initially and a weak front moving through overnight. There's not much that one can "count on" in a pattern like this, so much is going to depend on luck.
Downscaled NAM accumulations from 5 PM MST (0000 UTC) this afternoon through 5 PM Christmas Day amount to zilch right on the valley floor, and 4-8 inches in the upper elevations of the central Wasatch.
A look at the SREF plume for Alta shows this morning's snow, a break today, and then some additional snow tonight and/or tomorrow depending on the member. Deducting this morning's snow, the average total through 5 PM Christmas Day (26/00Z) is about 6-7 inches. The range for all but two very excited ensemble members is about 1-9 inches.
At the Salt Lake City Airport, all but three members generate less than in inch.
While it won't take a Christmas miracle for there to be an inch or more of new snow on the valley floor by Christmas afternoon, the odds are low. The east bench odds are a bit better, but still most members are under an inch at the University of Utah.
However, the forecasts above are based on science and with a little Christmas magic, perhaps the low probability outcomes will verify. Really, that wouldn't be magic. Statistics says it could be so.
I live in Daybreak, for some reason Daybreak consistently gets 2-4 more inches of snow than the surrounding towns and Salt Lake, I think this peculiar, though it could be due to being on the west bench. I would think so, if we did not also consistently get 1-2 more inches than Herriman. The only thing I can think of, is lake effect snow??? Yet I am extremely skeptical as Daybreak Lake is pathetically small. What are your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteI've been curious to see if this is an effect of the southwesterly storms.
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