Over the past couple of decades, however, the dice have become increasingly loaded to favor the latter. There have been only four Marches since 1989 with a statewide average temperature below the 20th century (1901-2000) mean, and those months were barely below the average.
Next week's Spring Break looks to be consistent with recent trends. The GFS forecast below is valid for 6 PM MDT Monday and shows a high-amplitude ridge and associated warm weather parked firmly over the western U.S. It certainly looks like Spring Break will get off to a warm start.
The latter part of spring break is far enough out that we'll have to see what happens, but my money is on the week ending up well above average for temperature and below average for precipitation.
If this continues, snow-loving students should lobby the University to move Spring Break to the last week of February or first week of March. Those who want warmth can go to Ft. Lauderdale or Arizona like other college students!
You did a post awhile (a year or two?) back where you listed data sources for your charts. I'd particularly like the data source for this chart of March average temp since 1900. Could you point me to that post, and the data source for this chart if its not in the post. Did you make this chart in Excel, or is it an auto-chart from one of your data sites.
ReplyDeleteThx
Pray for Snow, even if it is March
Ah, I must have missed adding that. Those are from NCEI: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. Adjust the options to what you want. There is an option to download to a comma separated file, which can be imported into various software packages. I did that particular chart in Excel.
DeleteJim
Thanks, great data.
ReplyDeleteI notice it is from a NOAA server.
No doubt you've read the Washington Post piece on OMB's first whack at NOAA
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/03/white-house-proposes-steep-budget-cut-to-leading-climate-science-agency/?utm_term=.53000d4e4ab4
Skimmed Honest Broker. I've been slightly aware of Wilbur Ross, Sec of Commerce, who oversees NOAA, for a decade or two. Sharp guy, data driven. I do think if a group of professors wrote a letter to Utah's Congressional delegation, or, better yet, met w staff to explain what the cuts would do to weather prediction, that would be acting as an honest broker.
Hopefully, the the budget Ross negotiate's w OMB won't impede the public's ability to access weather data.
Weather is probably a better word than climate, in this context.
We could quibble about whether (pun unavoidable) 120 years of data is a climate signal or weather data, but we should really put our hearts into praying for MORE SNOW
Do you take requests, Jim?
ReplyDeleteMy wife and I are SLC natives, and we concur in our recollections that it wasn't so windy here in the valley back in the 80s and 90s as it has been in recent years, say the past decade or so. You're in you're in a unique position to confirm or, uh, disconfirm that suspicion. (https://youtu.be/puMPxcJmsWk?t=2m45s) And no, I don't think it's the carpet pissers did this. Thanks.
That one will need to be left to others, at least for now, as I lack the time to investigate.
DeleteWhile I agree that rising temperatures will move the onset of spring conditions earlier, there is zero evidence that March snowfall in Utah is any lower than 40 years ago. Thus the incidence of powder days should be unchanged.
ReplyDeleteThe interesting part of this post is that the Utah March temperature increase of 3.3F is about twice as larger as the overall world temperature increase over a similar time frame of 0.94C.
Is "one month in Utah" too small a sample size given weather variability? How many other months show similar temperature increases? Is there a meteorological reason why Utah temperatures would rise more than worldwide temperatures, as we know is the case in the Arctic for example?
I missed my mid-March timeshare week last year, but came to Utah the last week of March. It was full on winter for a week with two major storms of 18+ inches.
I agree on the snowfall statement (for upper elevations), but keep in mind that snowfall is the *last* snow measure measure to show clear trends related to global warming (http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2013/08/western-snow-trends-and-global-warming.html) and that it is not the only factor in skiing quality. Even if snowfall is unchanged, a warmer march means increases in snow density, melt-freeze cycles, etc. March can still bring it, but the statistics are changing in a way that spring skiing conditions are becoming more frequent in March.
DeleteUtah has been warming faster than the global average and over the long-term of many decades, this is expected to continue. Details and attribution at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1 and more recent papers that cite it.
Jim
Jim,
ReplyDeleteCan you comment as to how much variability there is in temperature for march? For example In the chart above some months average almost 8 degrees below the average where some months were 8 degrees above. Do all months have this type of variability?
I suspect July has the least variability from year to year, but haven't ever done a comparison across the various months to explore this myself. Dig into the data yourself at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/.
DeleteJim
Snow loving students, March is the perfect time for a ski trip to the Tetons.
ReplyDeleteActually it's not, because Jackson has terrible exposure, steep and predominantly SE facing. The inversions which keep Jackson's lower snow dry mid-winter are long gone by March, same as in SLC. Even Targhee is mostly west facing.
ReplyDelete