Granted, it has been very dry, but a large sounding-based dry bias remained at 00 UTC Oct 3 when the ground-based GPS measured about 1 cm and the NWS sounding came it at around 0.65 cm.
I personally put more stock in the ground-based GPS measurements. There have been several reports of serious deficiencies in NWS sounding observations of late. One has to wonder how this influences the initial analysis of the NWP models, as well as reanalyses like the NARR which likely are not assimilating the GPS data.
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