Desperate times call for desperate measures. Alternatively, these are the times that one learns to appreciate subtleties in the weather.
I've had to dig deep for material today and we'll focus on the slight increase in moisture that will occur over the next 12-24 hours.
Yesterday afternoon's sounding from the Salt Lake Airport showed large dewpoint depressions (consistent with low relative humidity) at nearly all levels near jet-stream level. The precipitable water, which is the total depth of water one would have if all the water vapor in the column were condensed out, was 10 mm (about 0.4 inches).
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| Source: University of Wyoming |
Thanks to an increase in water vapor at mid levels, consistent with some of the altostratus clouds that are out there this morning, the precipitable water has climbed to 13.5 mm this morning.
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| Source: University of Wyoming |
The NAM has it climbing to near 15 mm this afternoon (top panel below) and then just above 15 mm tonight through tomorrow afternoon (bottom panel below).
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| NAM forecast valid 0000 UTC 6 September (1800 MDT Wednesday 5 September) |
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| NAM forecast valid 0000 UTC 7 September (1800 MDT Wednesday 6 September) |
Basically, it's a hint of monsoon moisture. It's not much to get excited about, but it does mean a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the Salt Lake Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are possible in the Uintas.
Ideas for future posts appreciated!
If its not been covered, I have a question about warming and SWE. After reading your post on the predicted disappearance of the low level snowpack in the Sierra's, I wondered what might happens to the very high elevation snowpacks. As I understand it, global warming should lead to more moisture in the atmosphere, which should lead to more precipitation, which should lead to more snowpack up high where winter melts will remain rare. Is that a possibility?
ReplyDeleteIt depends on (1) how the precipitation climatology changes, (2) just how cold the region is, and (3) how big the warming is. Certainly the vulnerability is lower at the highest elevations assuming there is not a major change in storm-track characteristics. However, I haven't seen studies suggesting a *major long-term* increase in precipitation at upper elevations. Further, snowfall and snowpack are two different things and even if snowfall increases over the long haul, other factors might still yield a net decline in snowpack.
DeleteYou might find these older posts helpful:
http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2013/08/western-snow-trends-and-global-warming.html
http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2013/08/western-snow-trends-and-global-warming_9.html.
Jim
I checked out those posts and in general, it seems like the increase in snow precip can't keep up with the increase in temperature. But, the SWE seems to stabilize starting in about 2070 and then seems to uptick in the wasatch and colo rockies. I would love to see the same analysis limited to elevations above, say, 7000 ft. Not that I'll live to see any of this....
DeletePossible topic; has it gotten windier during the summers along the Wasatch front in the last 20 years? Wind velocities increasing on average? Been around here since 91 and now it seems like it is always sandblasting speeds.
ReplyDeleteThat one I can't dig into easily and may have to pass. We do what we can :-)!
DeleteAny patches of snow left in the wasatch after the bad winter?
ReplyDeleteNothing above Lake Blanche last weekend. Haven't been in upper LCC in a while.
DeleteNo patches remaining in Hogum, had a pretty good look on my walk up the north ridge of the pfeiff this morning.
ReplyDeleteThen it is likely we've fully hit the reset button this winter. No carry over.
DeleteI'd read a post on this: https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900030622/sizzling-salt-lake-city-tops-in-the-nation-for-warming-trend.html
ReplyDelete