A Three-Part Storm
A three-part storm will affect northern Utah through Wednesday morning.
The system really has three parts. In the first, a band of frontal precipitation drags across late today and tonight.
Snow levels will initially be near 6500-7000 feet, but drop to bench level overnight. The NAM is bearish on this phase of the storm, generating about 0.17" of water equivalent at Alta-Collins through 11 AM tomorrow, whereas the GFS is more bullish going for 0.53". Something in the 3-6" range seems most likely.
During the second phase, we could be caught between two lovers as the frontal system intensifies to our south and east as a post-frontal area of instability showers remains upstream.
Thus, as things stand now, it appears late tomorrow morning (or even mid morning) through afternoon we'll be in a bit of a break.
Tomorrow night everything depends on the post-frontal crap shoot (see The Post-Frontal Crapshoot for more information). The models indicate northwesterly flow with orographic precipitation, as shown in the GFS below.
The latest NAM time-height section just came in and you can see the moist, northwesterly flow from about 3Z Wednesday (8 PM MST Tuesday) through Wednesday morning.
This is a pattern where lake effect is also possible, although anticipating amounts and locations is pretty much impossible at this time.
I see a wide range of possibilities for the Cottonwoods for tomorrow night given the fickle nature of these post-frontal periods. Probably the heart of the range of possibilities is something in the 3-6 inch range tomorrow night, but I've seen situations where patterns like this have produced more, and I've seen situations where they've produced less. Keep your fingers crossed.
The system really has three parts. In the first, a band of frontal precipitation drags across late today and tonight.
Snow levels will initially be near 6500-7000 feet, but drop to bench level overnight. The NAM is bearish on this phase of the storm, generating about 0.17" of water equivalent at Alta-Collins through 11 AM tomorrow, whereas the GFS is more bullish going for 0.53". Something in the 3-6" range seems most likely.
During the second phase, we could be caught between two lovers as the frontal system intensifies to our south and east as a post-frontal area of instability showers remains upstream.
Thus, as things stand now, it appears late tomorrow morning (or even mid morning) through afternoon we'll be in a bit of a break.
Tomorrow night everything depends on the post-frontal crap shoot (see The Post-Frontal Crapshoot for more information). The models indicate northwesterly flow with orographic precipitation, as shown in the GFS below.
The latest NAM time-height section just came in and you can see the moist, northwesterly flow from about 3Z Wednesday (8 PM MST Tuesday) through Wednesday morning.
I see a wide range of possibilities for the Cottonwoods for tomorrow night given the fickle nature of these post-frontal periods. Probably the heart of the range of possibilities is something in the 3-6 inch range tomorrow night, but I've seen situations where patterns like this have produced more, and I've seen situations where they've produced less. Keep your fingers crossed.
Snow...snow...snow......
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