As I watch the evolution of our latest western weather system, I am reminded of the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. You know the one where the porridge is not too hot and not too cold, but just right. What I wouldn't give for a weather system that is not too weak and not too strong, but just right.
The problem with the storm that was hyped for northern Utah over the past few days is that it was basically too strong. The upper-level trough dug deeply into the southwest, the system stalled, and the large-scale dynamics is falling apart before the cold air gets to northern Utah at the surface. The loop below tells the tale. Note in particular how the precipitation over Nevada falls apart today while things then explode to our east over Colorado. Easy come, easy go.
We'll see some snow showers at times through Thursday, but not enough to get me excited given the fact it's falling on a 0–2 inch base. If you want skiing this weekend, road trip to Colorado. What can I say? Colorado is my Daddy.
Right now Colorado is even warmer than Utah. 55 degrees in Aspen and Wundeground predicts barely 3" of snow for the coming days. But it's snowing heavily in Yellowstone so perhaps Jackson-Tetons is a good option for the weekend.
ReplyDeleteOTOH, if I hadn't been following the forecasts and synoptic charts, I'd probably be thinking that these strong warm winds from the South were some remnants of Hurricane Patricia. It certainly feels that way.
Any word on the storm coming in late monday? (Next monday) I'm seeing some decent snow totals in the mountains for it being a weak system. Says 3"+ for the valley starting late monday going through later afternoon Tuesday. Have you been following this little system at all?
ReplyDeleteIt's another possible storm, but too far out to be talking numbers, especially specifics like "3 inches."
DeleteYeah. Just AccuWeather being AccuWeather haha. Ive been looking into it too. But just like you said, it's too far out. Thanks for the reply!
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DeleteJim,
ReplyDeleteThe upper-level dynamics (too much digging of the trough) probably deserve most of the blame, but I think some may also be attributable to a very strong GBCZ, which has been reluctant to move east. Of course, these two are related and probably more of 1a and 1b than two separate issues.
Yes Jon, agree. The GBCZ pretty much destroyed the vertical structure of the system.
DeleteJon, if ignorance is bliss, I'm feeling quite happy.. what, may I ask, is the GBCZ?
DeleteExcuse this comment not pertaining to this article.
ReplyDeleteI've been having an interesting conversation on the other Wasatch weather site. I've been a tad annoyed at the use of a strong El Nino as reason to think that we will have a good snow year. I have read many of the post you have written saying that El Nino has no statistical correlation to above average snow in the Wasatch. It was pointed out to me however that even though the average total snowfall in an El Nino year will be average, El Nino still has many effects on the weather in UT. I would be interested to hear from you how El Nino does effect UT and the Wasatch (even if the end effect is average snowfall).
Thanks as always!
I'm not arguing this to be an average year. What I'm saying is that we really can't tell where it will end up for snowfall. The odds are simply not weighted in any way for above average, average, or below average in the Wasatch. Anything is possible.
DeleteThe view that a strong El Nino will give us a good snow season is based on the fact that the two largest events (82-83 and 97-98) were big years at Alta. It's tough to say with a small sample size if that's signal or noise, but it's not enough to get me to buy in.
With regards to other effects on Utah weather, I'd like to help, but lack the time. I really am only interested in mountain snow ;-).
Jim
I should have been clearer, my annoyance was not directed at you. I think you have been very clear from the beginning about El Niño effects on snow in the Wasatch, my annoyance was at the other Wasatch weather blog, which is why I came here to ask you :)
DeleteI was thinking maybe El Niño causes more water, but the storms are also a tad warmer, so maybe in an El Niño year we get the same amount of snow, but not as quality? No idea, just thinking aloud.
There could be something to that, but it is not something I've looked into. Combined snowfall and water equivalent records are even shorter and rarer (often you have one but not the other), making such studies more difficult.
DeleteOh yeah, I forgot to add that I don't mind you looking at other wasatch weather sites, but stick with Wasatch Weather Weenies and we'll teach you about the atmosphere. To paraphrase an old BASF commercial, we don't make the forecasts you buy, we make the forecasts you buy better....
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Who's your Daddy? CLAPCLAP CLAPCLAPCLAP
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