Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Trending Snowy for the Mountains

Compared to yesterday, this morning's (0900 UTC initialized) SREF is much wetter for Alta, with  a mean water equivalent of nearly an inch through 1800 UTC (1200 MDT) tomorrow (Wednesday), with a range of about 0.35 to 1.25 inches. 

My impression surveying the various deterministic models (NAM, GFS, FV3) is that the pattern is looking healthier as well.  The time-height section from the NAM shows high relative humidies through a deep layer from later today through mid day tomorrow.  About all that is missing in that forecast is a full shift of the winds to northwesterly.  For the most part, they stay WNW. 

Numbers from that model run for Alta show 1.03 inches of water and about 11 inches of snow through 1200 MDT tomorrow. 

Bottom line is that this is now looking like a healthy early-season storm.  Something in the 8-16 inch range for Alta-Collins is looking likely through tomorrow afternoon.  It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.  If it can come in big, my interest in getting a lap in will increase markedly. 


  1. Can anyone access the Alta data? Alta publishes this data on their website, but they've yet to start the feed. Any information or links would be much appreciated. Thank you.

    1. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=cln

  2. Alta/Collins 1 hourly melted precipitation looks off. It appears to be at least half what it should be based on surrounding sites from these past two events.