Sunday, October 15, 2017

Irish Eyes Aren't Smiling

Hurricane Ophelia has had an unusual life cycle in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean and as of 11 AM AST this morning, was still a category 1 hurricane off the coast of Portugal. 
Source: National Hurricane Center
Over the next 24 hours, Ophelia is expected to undergo what is known as extratropical transition, the transformation from a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone.  It is expected to track northeastward and bring strong winds to Ireland and Scotland on Monday. 

The GFS sea-level pressure and wind speed (meters per second) forecast from the GFS is below and it shows the storm strengthening and broadening just southeast of Ireland, before weakening just a bit prior to landfall. 

Nevertheless, the system is quite strong at landfall.  The areas in yellow feature sustained winds of 28 m/s (56 knots) and orange around 35 m/s (70 knots), the latter are hurricane force.  These areas are found over water.  Winds are weaker over land, but still quite strong. 

The Irish Meteorological Service, Met √Čireann, has issued a National Weather Warning and is expecting sustained winds of 80 km/h (43 knots) and gusts in excess of 130 km/h (70 knots) in the southern half of the country.

Source: Met √Čireann, 9:30 MDT 15 Oct 2017
Much will depend on the precise track of the storm, but it looks like this will be a strong windstorm for Ireland, and perhaps Scotland and other portions of the UK. 

1 comment:

  1. The track over Scotland will take this storm over the West Higlands Way, a long distance hiking route between Glasgow and Ft William. Beautiful country, but several days of very exposed mtn and moorland, especially nr Glencoe.
    We hope hikers wisely head for the pub, or B&B