Friday, October 13, 2017

Abrupt Changes This Weekend

Mid October arrives on Sunday, meaning that I begin to take a closer interest in potential storms that could bring the start of ski season.  

The trough moving through tonight and tomorrow won't bring more than some light accumulations to the central Wasatch, so the ski watch continues, but it will bring some rapid changes in upper-elevation temperatures.

While we have fall-like weather today, by 1200 UTC  (6 AM) tomorrow morning, a fast moving upper-level trough ushers in some legitimately winter-like air, with 700-mb (10,000 ft) temperatures at or below -10ºC by tomorrow morning.  That's pretty frigid for October.

But by 1200 UTC (6 AM) Sunday morning, we've rebounded nicely to +2ºC. 

Here's the yo-yo as illustrated by our automated temperature forecast derived from the NAM for the summit of Mt. Baldy (11,000 feet).  Temperatures today in the low to mid 20s (the station currently shows 25ºF), but plummeting overnight to 8ºF by 8 AM.  Temperatures climb, however, as the trough moves out and the ridge moves in and by Sunday morning, they are pushing 40ºF.  

Bottom line: Tomorrow is good for sleeping in, enjoying brunch, and shopping for skis.  Save higher altitude adventures for Sunday.  Those adventures, however, won't involve skiing, at least in the central Wasatch.  

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