Integrated water vapor is the total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. As this particular atmospheric river pushes into the Great Basin, integrated water values with reach values with a return interval over northern Utah of about once every five years during the three week period centered on today. Thus, this is a fairly juicy airmass for this time of year.
Source: National Weather Service |
Source: National Weather Service |
Second, the snow we get at upper elevations through the first part of the overnight hours is probably going to be pretty high density. That's good for base building and we will take it. The NAM generates 0.84 inches of snow-water equivalent through midnight at Alta, which will probably produce snow with an average water content of 14%. Yup, Cascade Concrete. What should, however, help the skiing for tomorrow is that the storm gets colder and the snow water contents drop overnight, which should yield a right-side-up snowfall.
Third, there are some locations that are probably going to get a lot of water out of this storm, perhaps more than 2 inches in some locations. Not all of this will fall as snow below 8000-8500 feet and, since some of the snow even in the upper elevations will be high density, it won't necessarily add up to as much snow as you might think. Nevertheless, the weight of this snow is going to stress the snowpack and make for a wild ride in term of backcountry avalanche hazard (see also today's UAC advisory). As I always say, beware when the atmosphere is in outlier mode and it will be in that mode through at least tomorrow afternoon—with the snowpack in outlier mode longer than that.
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