For reasons we have discussed, there is a good reason to recognize the limited ability to predict weather at longer lead times. That being said, there are several modeling systems (and their ensembles) that can be consulted when producing a long-range forecast including Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS, based on the GFS model), NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System), GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale model run by Environment Canada), and the ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) global model.
When you consider all these models and their ensembles there's a fire hose of data to examine, but I have a tried and true approach for dealing with such problems, as University of Utah Atmospheric Sciences students can attest.
Over the past few weeks, I haven't seen much to get excited about for the Wasatch. Every now and then a couple of ensemble members would hint at something exciting happening in the 7-10 day time frame, but I'd look at the full spectrum of model forecasts and find all sorts of other solutions, most of which would keep us mainly dry. This continues today. For example, in the 10 day forecast from the 0000 UTC GEFS, there are a wide range of solutions, but most keep us under a ridge or on the anticyclonic (southern) side of the jet, which isn't great for precipitation.
|Source: Penn State E-wall. Click to enlarge.|
Note that this doesn't mean I rule out a pattern shift, but merely that I need more evidence to emerge, such as the development of greater consistency between the models and ensemble members as the forecast lead time decreases, before getting excited.