C3PO: "Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1."
Han Solo: "Never tell me the odds."
As Benjamin Franklin once wrote, "in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes." Movie characters like Han Solo ignore the odds because it makes for a good story (although he would probably tell you the odds of navigating the asteroid field, while low, were better than dealing with the Imperial tie fighters).
Meteorologists deal with statistics daily. The atmosphere cannot be predicted with absolute certainty and every forecast needs to consider probabilities. There are times when something is virtually certain, such as no rain when you are under a ridge and the atmosphere is stable and very dry, but more often than not, there is uncertainty and uncertainty that has major public safety and economic ramifications.
Exhibit one for meteorologists are tropical cyclones, which in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific Oceans are referred to as tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes depending on the maximum sustained wind speed. A 2003 study concluded that it costs anywhere from $1 million to $50 million to evacuate coastal counties in North Carolina, numbers that have surely increased with inflation and increasing development and densification of coastal areas over the past two decades. This is one reason why storm track and intensity forecasts are so important.
However, when a tropical storm is approaching, the actions taken by us can reduce risk to their lives and property, but do nothing to alter the strength and path of the storm (note: I'm talking about short-term forecasts here - I'm not dealing with how anthropogenic climate change may be altering tropical cyclone strength and statistics). The strength and path of the storm are a response to physics, not human action.
Which brings us to the novel coronavirus. This is a totally different beast because the actions we take or don't take do "alter the storm," if I may speak metaphorically. Good hygiene, distancing, mask wearing, and cleaning frequently touched surfaces greatly reduce the odds of transmission and the rate of infection. They change the statistics of the storm and reduce severity. On the other hand, when we don't take these actions, the statistics of coronavirus spread are not only unforgiving, but also stealthy due to the delay between spread and detection.
I suppose my repeating of these facts is getting old, but how else to fight misinformation, such as the idea that sunlight protects you from coronavirus. It doesn't.
A summary of UV effects on the coronavirus produced by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine is available here. The bottom line is that the type and intensity of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface is not sufficient to kill viruses quickly. Their conclusions:
Meteorologists deal with statistics daily. The atmosphere cannot be predicted with absolute certainty and every forecast needs to consider probabilities. There are times when something is virtually certain, such as no rain when you are under a ridge and the atmosphere is stable and very dry, but more often than not, there is uncertainty and uncertainty that has major public safety and economic ramifications.
Exhibit one for meteorologists are tropical cyclones, which in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific Oceans are referred to as tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes depending on the maximum sustained wind speed. A 2003 study concluded that it costs anywhere from $1 million to $50 million to evacuate coastal counties in North Carolina, numbers that have surely increased with inflation and increasing development and densification of coastal areas over the past two decades. This is one reason why storm track and intensity forecasts are so important.
However, when a tropical storm is approaching, the actions taken by us can reduce risk to their lives and property, but do nothing to alter the strength and path of the storm (note: I'm talking about short-term forecasts here - I'm not dealing with how anthropogenic climate change may be altering tropical cyclone strength and statistics). The strength and path of the storm are a response to physics, not human action.
Which brings us to the novel coronavirus. This is a totally different beast because the actions we take or don't take do "alter the storm," if I may speak metaphorically. Good hygiene, distancing, mask wearing, and cleaning frequently touched surfaces greatly reduce the odds of transmission and the rate of infection. They change the statistics of the storm and reduce severity. On the other hand, when we don't take these actions, the statistics of coronavirus spread are not only unforgiving, but also stealthy due to the delay between spread and detection.
I suppose my repeating of these facts is getting old, but how else to fight misinformation, such as the idea that sunlight protects you from coronavirus. It doesn't.
A summary of UV effects on the coronavirus produced by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine is available here. The bottom line is that the type and intensity of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface is not sufficient to kill viruses quickly. Their conclusions:
- "Going outside on a sunny day will not quickly break down coronaviruses on skin. But it can give you a sunburn if you are not wearing sunscreen!"
- "Some viruses are seasonal and spread more slowly in the summer. This is probably due to warmer temperatures, higher humidity, and changes in human behaviors—not because it is sunnier in the summer."
- "The best ways to protect yourself from COVID-19 are to wash your hands, keep your distance from other people, and clean and disinfect frequently touched surfaces."
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