Last night provided yet another example. SREF forecasts initialized at 0900 UTC 25 January (2 AM MST Saturday) produced anywhere from 3-12 inches with last night storm with a mean of about 8.
Thusfar, we're up to a 12 inch total, at the top of the ensemble range, and it's still snowing.
I could dig further, but who wants to jinx this run? Let it keep coming.
Shifting gears, it's now January 27th, which puts us nearly 2/3 of the way through meteorological winter (December-February) and the snow accumulation season. In the Salt Lake Valley, it's been a relatively mild meteorological winter with a mean temperature at the Salt Lake City Airport through Jan 26 of 34.6˚F, the 16th warmest on record (i.e., since 1875).
The coldest temperature observed so far this winter at the airport is a relatively balmy 20˚F, which was the minimum on three days in December and two in January. That's pretty pathetic. We've never gone so deep into meteorological winter without a colder temperature.
|Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers|
Finally, a quick comment on the state of the snowpack. It's been a good snow season, but the snowpack is not as fat as you might think. The Snowbird SNOTEL sites at 148% of median, but as of yesterday elsewhere in the Salt Lake and Bountiful area mountains Brighton is 113%, Thaynes Canyon 111%, Mill-D North 114%, Parleys Summit 112%, Lookout Peak 125%, Louis Meadow 110%, Hardscrabble 105%, Parrish Creek 111%, Farmington 105%, and Farmington Lower 112%. To the south, Timp Divide and Cascade Mountain are below median (94% and 89%, respectively).
Last night's snow will help a bit, but if I was a water manager, I'd keep doing my snow dances.