Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Active Stretch Ahead

The pattern over the next 7-10 days looks pretty good for Wasatch snow lovers as several weak systems move through the region.

Ten-day total accumulated precipitation from the ECMWF model (top image below) indicates roughly 1-2 inches of water equivalent in the central and northern Wasatch, while the GFS generates greater amounts.  Such results are fairly consistent with model biases as the GFS tends to be wetter than the ECMWF.

Source: Pivotal Weather
Source: Pivotal Weather

Our downscaled NAEFS product for Alta over the next seven days (i.e., through 0000 UTC 14 January) shows that after dry weather prevails today, a progression of weak systems through the area.  There are no huge one-day dumps if the GEFS members, but instead a series of systems that slowly but surely add up to a mean of just over 2 inches of water equivalent and 35 inches of snow.  Some Canadian members are more inclined to produce heavier snowfalls.  That's not out of the realm of possibility, but it's not a likely outcome.  

All of the members of the NAEFS produce over an inch of water and 20 inches of snow, so confidence is high that we will at least be at or above what we would expect climatologically during the forecast period. 

Enjoy the continuing favorable pattern. 


  1. Do you have a direct link to the NAEFS plumes product for Alta that would always bring op the latest data?

    1. Try this: http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?&t=naefs&d=PL&r=CLN

      Double check it.