The Great Salt Lake may be near its all-time record low elevation and area, but lake-surface temperatures right now are running quite high. Because the Great Salt Lake is so shallow, lake-surface temperatures often reflect recent temperatures at the Salt Lake City airport and so far this month the average temperature at the airport is a whopping 61.2ºF (16.2ºC). Consistent with this observation, satellite-derived lake-surface temperatures averaged for the past 2 days are generally above 14ºC, except in shallow areas along the coast, and average 15ºC for the lake as a whole.
It's very difficult to place these lake-surface temperatures in a long-term context. The satellite record is fairly short, and most of the long-term observations are from Saltair a single location on the south coast. Nevertheless, if we look at the lake-surface temperatures from Saltair for 1972–1988, we find that 15ºC is near or above the upper margins of the range for November 1 (data is bimonthly).
So we can probably safely conclude that the Great Salt Lake is quite warm for this time of year.
Will that mean a big lake-effect storm? It really depends on whether or not the atmosphere decides to cooperate.
Extra warm water vs. diminished size plus storms next week....I'll get the popcorn!
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