Snowpack Realities

Sorry to be Donnie Downer here but regardless of how much snow there might be in the Salt Lake Valley right now, the mountain snowpack situation in northern Utah remains well below median except on north aspects in Little Cottonwood Canyon and the south side of the high Uintas.  The latest numbers from NRCS SNOTEL stations show we are at 69% of median in the Jordan/Provo/Utah Lake basin, 69% of median in the Weber River Basin, and 68% of median in the Lower Bear.   Northern Utah stations at or above median include Mining Fork in the Stansbury Mountains, Snowbird, and several sites on the south side of the High Uintas.  

Focusing on the Jordan/Provo/Utah Lake basin, the reality is that the water equivalent of snowfall so far this year has been sufficient to put us at median.  The problem is that some of that snow fell in October and early November and didn't survive.  One can see this in the time series below, which shows several early season storms followed by melt events.  High-elevation northerly aspects did not suffer as much if at all in those melt events, which is why north facing terrain at Alta and Snowbird sits in the cat-bird seat for snow cover right now.  

Upper-elevation, north-facing, backcountry areas in the central Wasatch also hold close to median snowpack, but also weak layers that are now contributing to dangerous avalanche conditions.  Good to hear that the skier below is OK.  

Dec 17, 2021 - A skier was caught, carried, and fully buried in an avalanche in Big Cottonwood Canyon today. They survived and did not sustain any major injuries.

More details are available via a link in our bio for the Meadows Accident. #utavy pic.twitter.com/Q3Uyv1fW1E

— UtahAvalancheCenter (@UACwasatch) December 18, 2021

H/T to that party for sharing that video.  

Getting back to the water situation, the mean snowpack water equivalent in the Jordan/Provo/Utah Lake Basin sits at 3.5 inches.  This is about half way between the lowest in the period of record (1.8") and median (5.1") for the date.  Model forecasts suggest it will remain dry through Wednesday.  Assuming that holds, we will lose another inch to median, so we'd be 2.6 inches behind.  It will take a major multiday storm cycle a bit bigger than the one this past week to make up that ground.  

Much can happen in the coming weeks.  The spigot could turn on and we make up ground quickly.  The one thing we know with certainty is that the persistent weak layer that currently exists in some backcountry areas is probably going to be here for a while.  More below from the Utah Avalanche Center.