Two Storms Next Week

The meteogram of snowfall at Alta ski area so far this season shows a very good October followed by a fairly dismal November. 

Source: Alta Ski Area

The total snowfall through October 27 was 67".  Since then, there's only been 21.5 inches with only one "deep-powder day" with more than 10" of snow on November 9.  There has been no measurable snow since November 24.  

It's not much of a secret to say that we'll see some "weather" next week.  It's been talked about now for several days.  That always makes me nervous, but let's see what the models say.  

After a dry weekend, the transition begins early next week.  First, we have a weakly split system that will approach on Monday and move through Utah on Tuesday.  

The latest GFS calls for this to be a 7 incher at Alta-Collins through late Tuesday, whereas the NAEFS ensemble plume has a mean closer to 10 inches.  I suspect something in the 5-10 inch range is most likely.  It won't be a game changer, but it will be a much needed refresh for Alta and Snowbird.  Elsewhere, where there's little to no snow, it will at least turn things from brown to white.

The extended forecast shows a more active pattern compared to what we've seen the past couple of weeks.  Whether or not one this leads a quick game changer or a more gradual building of the snowpack remains to be seen.  The latest GFS calls for a storm later next week, but right now it has southern Utah in the crosshairs.  

Still, the GFS gives Alta-Collins about 15" (in addition to the early week storm) from early Thursday morning through Friday night, bringing the total from Monday night through Friday night to 22".  The numbers for the week from the European are comparable.  The downscaled NAEFS ensemble is even more optimistic.  

Ultimately, much will depend on the track of the two storms.  Best case scenario is substantially better skiing next weekend and perhaps the return of viable early season conditions in areas that are currently snow free.  Worst-case is a needed refresh for high-north aspects, while other areas have several inches of fresh on dirt.  Hope that 2nd storm tracks a bit to the north and doesn't pass to the south.