Pathetic Start to December

As "Covember" ends, it's now a lock that July to November was the driest on record in Salt Lake City with only 1.52 inches of precipitation.  It is now one of only three years with less than 2 inches of precipitation during the period, joining 1958 (1.66 inches) and 1933 (1.72 inches).  

Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers

As far as temperature is concerned, July to November was the 5th warmest on record with an average temperature of 66.7˚F, just a shade behind 2013 (66.9˚F), 2017 (66.9˚F), 2012 (67.1˚F), and 2016 (67.3˚F).  

Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers

Record low precipitation and excessive warmth is a bad combination and, not surprisingly, the US Drought Monitor has all but far northern Utah in exceptional or extreme drought.  

The trend continues to start December.  believe it or not, there's a cold frontal passage tonight and for that we can be grateful as it will stir up the inversion.  On the inversion, precipitation looks to be scant.  The GFS provides just light amounts in the northern mountains and Uintas.  

The downscaled SREF is actually a bit more optimistic than I am, with 8 members producing 1 to 2.5 inches.  Whoot whoot!  The remaining 18 call for an inch or less.  Sobering reality.  

The forecast beyond that is a complete disaster.  If you want some technical mumble jumble, the large-scale pattern is one characterized by a strong Pacific storm track across the western and central Pacific, with frequent ridge development and anticyclonic wave breaking over the eastern Pacific and Western United States.  For us, that means weak large-scale flow, persistent ridging, and some meandering closed lows over at least the next 8 days.  

Pathetic.