"Covember" Doldrums

November 2020.  A month better called "Covember" given the explosion of COVID cases across the country.

For Salt Lake Area skiers, the month started out with promise with over 50 inches of snow at Alta.  Since then, however, the Covember doldrums have settled in.  Yesterday I found both overcast and "undersmog" as I walked in the Avenues foothills.  This is not an uncommon scene this time of year when a weak trough and associated warm-air advection move through the area.  Such a situation increases the stability and provides just enough lift for mid-level cloud formation, but insufficient moisture and flow to generate precipitation or scour out the stable airmass over the valley.  

If you had asked me a few days ago about snow potential Thanksgiving week, I wouldn't have been excited, but I probably would have thought we'd do OK.  Two troughs were forecast to move through the area, so we'd be bound to get something.  In a case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, the latest models continue to bring those troughs through, but provide the Wasatch with paltry amounts of precipitation.  The GFS loop below shows the passage of the two troughs.

The SREF forecast for Alta below does a pretty good job of summarizing the suite of solutions being put forth by the various modeling systems.  Most are calling for light accumulations from both trough passages.  Of the 26 SREF members, 23 produce 3" or less from the first trough and only one produces more than 7" from both.  

Thus, unless there's a big surprise, dust on crust or dirt, depending on elevation and aspect.