But is it the worst?
Currently on this Christmas Day there is little to no natural snow at low-to-mid elevations. For example, the base of Park City is as bad as it gets right now from a natural snow perspective, although there is a white ribbon of death thanks to artificial snowmaking.
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| Source: https://www.parkcitymountain.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx. Screenshot from 1:20 PM MST 25 Dec 2025. |
Where we have data, there are now several SNOTELs in the Wasatch Range that are at their record low snowpack water equivalent for the date. These SNOTELs are Ben Lomond Trail, Farmington Lower, Farmington, Hardscrabble, Parley's Summit, and Payson Ranger Station. At Ben Lomond Peak (records back to the 1978/79 winter), the 4.5" of SWE is just ahead of the record low of 3.7". At Snowbird (records back to the 1989/90 water year) the 6.0" of SWE is just ahead of the record low of 4.6".
So, at some sites we have the worst natural snowpack during the SNOTEL period of record for Christmas. Others are close.
But "during the SNOTEL period of record" is an important caveat. The oldest SNOTEL stations in the Wasatch Range began operations during the 1978/79 winter. Others have even shorter records. They fail to provide a comparison with what is the Christmas and ski season start on record:
1976/77
How bad was the start of the 1976/77 ski season? During November and December of 1976, Alta-Guard observed only 31" of snow and 2.04" of water equivalent precipitation. How low is that? Really low. For comparison, Alta ski area has recorded 44.5" of snow and 6.75" of water so far this November and December (they will get more through this weekend) and the Atwater SNOTEL which is located where those Alta Guard snow and precipitation measurements would have been taken in 1976 has 6.9" of water equivalent in the snowpack. Thus, precipitation in 1976/77 and far less than we have had this November and December.
There was also no snowmaking in 1976/77. Snowmaking has been limited this year due to warmth (more on this below), but it still has saved our bacon and allowed resorts to operate with limited terrain. In 1976/77 the ski areas didn't have it and weren't even open for skiing during the Christmas Holidays. Back in 1976 there were these things called "newspapers." They printed the latest news on paper and were delivered to your door. It was a predecessor to modern social media. On December 24, 1976, the Salt Lake Tribune contained an article entitled "Resorts Featuring Snowless Events." Park City was promoting golf and tennis, gondola rides to view the new Jupiter Bowl Ski Rides, and dryland training classes. Snowbird had "summer rates," tram rides, and music. Perhaps it was a predecessor to Octoberfest.
What made 1976 so bad? The short answer is a big ridge. Average 500-mb heights for November 1 to December 23, 1976 show a high amplitude ridge along the Pacific coast that acted to reduce storminess, yielding few storms. Basically, it was a very dry pattern.
In contrast, the mean pattern for the same period this year is far less amplified and although we are below average for precipitation in November and December, we have had some storms.
The complicating factor this year, however, has been the warmth. The high fraction of precipitation falling as rain instead of snow and frequent snow-loss events have prevented the buildup of a low-to-mid elevation snowpack.
How warm has it been? To use a scientific term, it has been bat-sh*t-crazy warm. Below is a time series of mean Nov 1 to Dec 24 temperatures in Salt Lake City since 1875. Do you see that data point on the far right? The one that sticks up way above everything else? That's this year.
Unfortunately, we don't have complete records for temperatures at mountain sites. There's data at Alta back to the 1940s, but there are a lot of missing days. For what it's worth, the average temperature at Alta for the same November 1 to December 24 period was 35F this year (with complete data coverage). That's the highest on record, but in other years, there's missing data, so this comparison is limited. For what it's worth, the average temperature for the same period in 1976, when records were also complete, was 30.1F.
So to summarize, the worst Christmas skiing was in 1976/77. There was practically no natural snow, even at upper elevations, due to persistent ridging and a lack of storms. Precipitation was far less than we have seen so far this season and there was no snowmaking infrastructure to save the day.
But this season is also different animal. We have seen unusually high temperatures that are really unprecedented and exceptional in the Salt Lake Valley. More analysis of the mountain observations is needed, but even at upper elevations this appears to have been a remakrably warm period. This has led to a high fraction of precipitation falling as rain instead of snow at low-to-mid elevations and frequent snow ablation events. We have even seen a substantial rain event at elevations up to about 9600 feet. As a result, there's either no or very little snowpack below 8000 feet and a thin snowpack at higher elevations. Although we now have snowmaking infrastructure, it has frequently sat dormant due to high temperatures.
Skiing during the 1976/77 holiday period was bad due to a dry snow drought, but it's bad this season due to a dry-warm compound snow drought. In a dry-warm compound snow drought, warmth exacerbates the impacts of below average precipitation, making a bad situation worse. I suspect there is no historical analog to the start of this season in northern Utah. We simply haven't ever seen temperatures in November and December this warm (and this sustained). A good research question concerns whether or not this reflects an ongoing transition into a future in which dry-warm compound snow droughts become more common, especially during the early season. This season is not a new normal, but it might reflect a new extreme that became more likely due to warming of the climate system.
That said, it will be cold this weekend. You may need to recalibrate.
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