Tough Week Ahead for Western Powder Skiing

We have a weak storm moving through northern Utah today, after which we will have to hope that the advertised Groundhog Day pattern change comes through.  

Today's storm is associated with a weak 700-mb trough that at 1200 UTC was located along the Utah–Nevada border. 

As I type this at 7:50 AM, it is producing some valley rain here at the University of Utah, but so far not much at upper elevations.  The passage of the trough and then the unstable postfrontal period looks to produce some snow though for the mountains.  The GFS is going in for 0.45" of water and 6.2" of snow for Alta-Collins. 

The HRRR is pretty unenthusiastic producing only 0.17" of water and just under 2" of snow. 

Looking at the local radar, I was quite discouraged as the band ahead of the trough is nearly through with little accumulation in the central Wasatch (the southern Wasatch is doing better), but there are some instability showers behind the trough over Nevada, so maybe we can get something going eventually as that part of the system moves through.  

Source: College of DuPage

This is a tough forecast given the model spread.  The HRRR is nearly a nothing burger.  The GFS might suggest 4-8" for Alta-Collins.  I'm going to lean to the latter and say we'll get something in the 4-8" range eventually as the more unstable part of the storm moves through, but that is counting heavily on the Alta Cloud to do its job.  Let's hope it does because the forecasts until about Groundhog Day are pretty dismal for western powder skiing. 

Looking over the models, they are calling for a high-amplitude ridge to develop over the western US with a series of warm systems moving into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.  Dry, inversion weather will predominate over the western interior, with rain at times to high elevations over the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia.  As an example, below is the GFS forecast valid 0000 UTC 31 January (5 PM MST Tuesday) showing a deep cyclone off the BC Coast and a potent and warm atmospheric river extending from the sub tropics to the Pacific Northwest/Southwest BC coast.  

The models are hinting at a pattern change around Groundhog Day, so let's hope it comes through.  Note that if that pattern happens, it has nothing to do with weird men in top hats pulling a rodent out of the ground.