COLD AND SNOWY ALERT!!!

All caps seem appropriate given the overnight snowfall and the forecasts for the coming week, which can be summarized in two beautiful words: Cold and Snowy.  

Based on the Alta-Collins automated observations, Alta has picked up 21" since the holiday snow drought ended on Thursday through 10 AM this morning.  This is all of the low-density variety with a water content of about 6%.  I might have preferred some higher density snow to start and help bury the old snow surfaces, but beggars can't be choosers given the lack of snow through the holiday period.  

Additionally, the forecasts are spectacular.  More snow showers today, then a bit of a break before the next system drops in late Tuesday.  The GFS forecast valid 0600 UTC 10 January (11 PM MST Tuesday) shows a large-scale pattern with an upper-level risge well off the west coast and strong northwesterly flow moving over the northeast Pacific and into the interior western United States.  

Given the strength of the flow and the various "wiggles" in the jet stream, nailing down the timing and intensity of snowfall may be difficult, but a look at out downscaled NAEFS forecast shows that after today's snow and then the dry period through about 0000 UTC 10 January (5 PM MST Tuesday), we're going to see a series of systems coming through to add to totals.  

There is actually an unusually tight clustering in those forecasts (we typically see a greater range for Alta).  I don't think that reflects that all these forecasts agreeing on the details, but they do agree on this being an active period.  From 0000 UTC 10 January (5 PM MST Tuesday) through 0000 UTC 14 January (5 PM MST Saturday), water equivalents are generally in the 2-5" range and snowfall amounts are quite high.  I'm not going to say the numbers because this particular product tends to be a bit jacked and doesn't include the influence of wind and compaction on snow-to-liquid ratio, but it looks like a major storm cycle.  

By next weekend, we will be looking at a new mountain range with low-elevation snow and better coverage at upper elevations. 

I'm working today, but am heading out soon to buy some new gloves as my old ones are shot and professional grade insulation will be needed for this period.