Updating graphs for talks and classes now that the numbers are in and processed from 2023. This is no surprise given what has been observed throughout the year, but 2023 was the warmest year on record.
Updating graphs for talks and classes now that the numbers are in and processed from 2023. This is no surprise given what has been observed throughout the year, but 2023 was the warmest year on record.
Any particular reason to choose 1901-2000 as the baseline? Seems like this makes the deviation much less severe than a pre industrial revolution mean would provide.
ReplyDeleteIt's a default option for the data from National Centers for Environmental Information. I personally like comparisons with the 20th century because there are good weather records for that not just for surface data and for old farts like me, there is some experiential baseline.
DeleteJim, do you have an explanation as to why this is happening and what we can do about it?
ReplyDeleteThe long-term trend is due to human activities, especially greenhouse gas emissions. Why 2023 is so warm is still being evaluated, but probably related to El Nino (El Nino years tend to be warmer globally). We have sometimes settled back a bit once El Nino is over, but the long term trend will be for higher temperatures for at least a couple more decades. After that, things depend on future greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities and interventions.
DeleteJust keep believing it's a hoax or bad science and it will all go away...in a few hundred thousand years. Evolution will take care of the flora and fauna. God bless the climate deniers.
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/KhCKYvETYDc?si=qHf32OlwVkpPgYEA
DeleteAhh yes Lindzen, from Goebbels to LeChatlier. How are those 2004 predictions that 20 years hence climate may very well be cooler…..working out. Good job denialist person on the internet. At least you found a contrarian who is an actual atmospheric scientist.
DeleteYes, I'll keep believing it's a hoax as I've heard so many charlatans make predictions of imminent demise (flooding mainly) since the 90's yet here we are. The predictions of doom keep getting pushed back. It's all very similar to Covid. Trust the science! Most of don't anymore or at least we don't trust the 'expert' class.
DeleteThere are two issues here. First is the question is whether or not the scientists are getting it right. The second is the question of whether or not what you are seeing in the media and social media is getting what the scientists are saying right.
DeleteIf you wish to evaluate the former, the IPCC assessment reports are a good place to start. You can read the latest on extreme weather, including heavy precipitation and flooding at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/.
That document will also help you to evaluate the latter and whether or not the media you see is a reasonable synopsis of scientific consensus.
So you view all predictions as the same? Climate change, Covid, coin flip?
DeletePlease do tell more about the so called Covid predictions of doom. The million+ Americans who died from it might beg to differ.
I find these opinions shallow, uninformed and likely malevolent.
My favorite joke
Little boy: when I grow up I’m going to be a libertarian
Wise mother: that’s great son but you can’t do both.
Climate deniers are typical of the stupid group think Americans who are entitled to their false reality and emboldened by like minded conspiracy evangelists. Glory to the nincompoop mob - the anti-science morons hiding behind Jesus and fear.
ReplyDeleteI ask everyone here to avoid labels and namecalling. Plenty of places in social media to do that and, although this blog touches on highly political subjects, I'd rather have it focus more on critical analysis. You can make a salient argument without labels and name calling.
ReplyDeleteLet's focus on facts. With these temperatures (what we are actually seeing already, and measuring) we have to re-evaluate our situation. Higher temperatures mean higher evapotranspiration. The higher evaporation is visible in stream flow records.
ReplyDeleteBut we still need to find a way to reduce the evaporation of water, so more can reach the Great Salt Lake. Stopping it from drying up is in a our interests.
The work at the U is foundational to supporting this. Thank you Jim.!
Was 2023 also warmest on record in the Salt Lake City area?
ReplyDeleteNo. Tenth warmest for Salt Lake City area.
DeleteIs it possible that the temperatures are attributed to the airport and the growth of the city and not climate change as the main facture? Look at your chart they keep the temps at the airport built in 1930s, temp rises a little. Airport expands in 1970 temps go up a little. City begins to built closer and closer to airport temps go up. Resent expansion temps rise again. So are the temps rising or is the city getting bigger and warmer?
ReplyDeleteI should have perhaps mentioned this explicitly in the text, but that graph is for global temperatures not local, as indicated in the graphic. Urbanization would be a very small contribution to that trend. Locally though, urbanization in the Salt Lake Area is contributing to temperature increases.
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