Sunday, January 14, 2024

Had Enough Yet?

I'm up early and looking at the overnight numbers.  It was quite windy last night, so there is more uncertainty in the automated observations than usual, but from 5 PM yesterday to 5 AM this morning, the Collins gauge measured 1.91" (48 mm) of water and probably about 20 inches of snow (the 33 below is spurious).  The drop in total snow depth is odd, and that is one reason why I mention the uncertainty.  

Assuming it came in around 48 mm in 12 hours, that's somewhat unusual.  Below is a histogram of twice-daily 12-h snowfall and water equivalent (called liquid precipitation equivalent in the chart) over a 22 year period at Alta.  48 mm or more happened 10 times in that period, so about once every 2 years.  

Source: Wasserstein and Steenburgh (2024)

Since those are twice daily measurements, we would probably expect a few more events than that for any 12-hour period, but still, it appears we were in unusual territory.  Combined with wind and a weak snowpack, I suspect things were pushed over the edge last night.  Closing both canyons and declaring interlodge were 100% the right call, although you don't need a meteorologist to tell you that.  

Give the highway maintenance, public safety, and snow safety teams all your patience and respect today.  We are deep into too much of a good thing territory.  I love snow, but better it be spread out more than come like this.  

5 comments:

  1. Was surprised to wake up to rain on ebench at 430a this am.

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    1. Yeah, the models trended warm over time and the forecast "inertia" was hard to overcome. Yesterdays models were calling for it to warm. As noted in my post from yesterday, "This might push snow levels to just above the benches."

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  2. Is January 13 being declared the start of Steenburgh winter this year then? Or no because they’re questionable readings?

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    1. A lot of wind effect up there apparently. See https://twitter.com/ProfessorPowder/status/1746556445066473725.

      100 or no 100, I am delaying any celebrating of the start of Steenburgh Winter until this storm cycle is over. It's too dangerous right now to celebrate anything. Just hoping we get out of this periods without any major incidents. Another full burial yesterday in AF canyon.

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    2. Thanks for another great post in a series of great posts. I'm going to go ahead and start enjoying Steenburgh Winter even if it is not official. Thanks for all your hard work making this happen.

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